The 10000m is a straight final - she can put all her eggs in one basket and go for it. Now that there are no time qualifiers for 5000m, the races will likely be tactically about kicking - not her strength.
I think we could see the race-within-the-race string out. In the recent Euro Champs (run at night in warm conditions), with 800m to go, Diane van Es (25yr) and Keith (22yr) were right there with Battocletti (24yr), but the latter broke away with 600m to go, finishing in 30:51, closing in 70/65. Diane van Es closed in 72/69, and Keith in 75/74.
Thus, Kelati will need to be ahead of Battocletti at the bell to have a shot at beating her. Kelati might be following a faster African, trying to approach her 30:34 PB, a challenge in the heat of Paris.
Battocletti will be stalking Kelati, hoping to better her 30:51 PB, maybe with a 30:45, or even a 30:40 if she runs only the 10000m.
So if D. van Es doesn’t blow up, she might better her Euro Champs result by 5-10 secs, same as Keith, so they might go 30:47 and 30:55.
So if Valby is being pulled by Kelati/Battocletti, she will hopefully get on the rail (rather than on the shoulder) in front of, or behind D. van Es, and Schweizer and Keith will want the rail tucked behind Valby/van Es, to set positioning with 2-3 laps to go.
Perhaps top 6-7 if she breaks 80% of the field if/when she cranks down the pace in a strategic race a mile and a half from the finish.
You Valby fans are getting carried away, again. The fastest possible pace she can run is 15:20 for the first 5000m and she won’t be dropping anyone. If others take it out at 15:00 pace, she’ll immediately be gapped.
In this race, she’s a mid-packer, and it’s unlikely she’ll appear on the TV screen. As far as time goes, it’s not the kind of race where the runners achieve PRs. To do so, she would to run her own pace and ignore the other runners. If she gets caught up in the moment, and tries to keep with better runners, any chance of a PR will be gone.
I think we could see the race-within-the-race string out. In the recent Euro Champs (run at night in warm conditions), with 800m to go, Diane van Es (25yr) and Keith (22yr) were right there with Battocletti (24yr), but the latter broke away with 600m to go, finishing in 30:51, closing in 70/65. Diane van Es closed in 72/69, and Keith in 75/74.
Thus, Kelati will need to be ahead of Battocletti at the bell to have a shot at beating her. Kelati might be following a faster African, trying to approach her 30:34 PB, a challenge in the heat of Paris.
Battocletti will be stalking Kelati, hoping to better her 30:51 PB, maybe with a 30:45, or even a 30:40 if she runs only the 10000m.
So if D. van Es doesn’t blow up, she might better her Euro Champs result by 5-10 secs, same as Keith, so they might go 30:47 and 30:55.
So if Valby is being pulled by Kelati/Battocletti, she will hopefully get on the rail (rather than on the shoulder) in front of, or behind D. van Es, and Schweizer and Keith will want the rail tucked behind Valby/van Es, to set positioning with 2-3 laps to go.
So doing the math, a Valby finish of 8th or better would definitely be punching above her pay grade. But who thought she was going to snag 2nd at the Trials?🤷🏼♂️
So if D. van Es doesn’t blow up, she might better her Euro Champs result by 5-10 secs, same as Keith, so they might go 30:47 and 30:55.
So if Valby is being pulled by Kelati/Battocletti, she will hopefully get on the rail (rather than on the shoulder) in front of, or behind D. van Es, and Schweizer and Keith will want the rail tucked behind Valby/van Es, to set positioning with 2-3 laps to go.
So doing the math, a Valby finish of 8th or better would definitely be punching above her pay grade. But who thought she was going to snag 2nd at the Trials?🤷🏼♂️
I think a lot of people thought she could get second at the trials. Very few thought she’d outkick Karissa to do it. I thought it was over the moment she was passed.
As recently as March, she couldn’t even imagine herself doing the 10K. That’s the bigger story here.
So doing the math, a Valby finish of 8th or better would definitely be punching above her pay grade. But who thought she was going to snag 2nd at the Trials?🤷🏼♂️
I think a lot of people thought she could get second at the trials. Very few thought she’d outkick Karissa to do it. I thought it was over the moment she was passed.
As recently as March, she couldn’t even imagine herself doing the 10K. That’s the bigger story here.
How was she going to do it unless she outkicked Schweizer? Because Kelati came in with a SB of 30:34.
That would greatly change the dynamics of the-race-within-the-race, if true.
I’ve been watching distance running for many years, and I’ve never seen someone at Varby’s level, achieve a PR in the Olympics. There will be better opportunities to shoot for PRs.
From a running perspective, singling the 10000m is the best choice for Valby.
From a marketing perspective, she should have done both (keeps your name being mentioned in the broadcast for longer plus makes you look like a better athlete since you qualified in two events).
I'm glad she's looking out for what's best for her running and not overly focused on the marketing side of things.
That would greatly change the dynamics of the-race-within-the-race, if true.
I’ve been watching distance running for many years, and I’ve never seen someone at Varby’s level, achieve a PR in the Olympics. There will be better opportunities to shoot for PRs.
The finishing times anre all relative. Regardless of it being Valby’s ‘level’ specifically, or the warm conditions more broadly, why don’t you see if you can come up with a rational race scenario, or two, based on the recent results from the Euro Champs and US Trials?
What we’ve seen from Valby so far this season is that she has stepped up to the plate and made solid contact.
I’ve been watching distance running for many years, and I’ve never seen someone at Varby’s level, achieve a PR in the Olympics. There will be better opportunities to shoot for PRs.
The finishing times anre all relative. Regardless of it being Valby’s ‘level’ specifically, or the warm conditions more broadly, why don’t you see if you can come up with a rational race scenario, or two, based on the recent results from the Euro Champs and US Trials?
What we’ve seen from Valby so far this season is that she has stepped up to the plate and made solid contact.
Another race scenario is that without BATTOCLETTI in the race (if true) for Kelati to be concerned about, the Africans could really slow this thing down (using heat as an excuse) for the first 8800m of the race, with the pack bunching up and tripping over themselves behind them. And then with 2-3 laps to go, all havoc breaks loose.
So if D. van Es doesn’t blow up, she might better her Euro Champs result by 5-10 secs, same as Keith, so they might go 30:47 and 30:55.
So if Valby is being pulled by Kelati/Battocletti, she will hopefully get on the rail (rather than on the shoulder) in front of, or behind D. van Es, and Schweizer and Keith will want the rail tucked behind Valby/van Es, to set positioning with 2-3 laps to go.
So doing the math, a Valby finish of 8th or better would definitely be punching above her pay grade. But who thought she was going to snag 2nd at the Trials?🤷🏼♂️
An 8th place showing as a 21 year old American woman would be an incredible achievement.
I’ve been watching distance running for many years, and I’ve never seen someone at Varby’s level, achieve a PR in the Olympics. There will be better opportunities to shoot for PRs.
The finishing times anre all relative. Regardless of it being Valby’s ‘level’ specifically, or the warm conditions more broadly, why don’t you see if you can come up with a rational race scenario, or two, based on the recent results from the Euro Champs and US Trials?
What we’ve seen from Valby so far this season is that she has stepped up to the plate and made solid contact.
This will be the Olympics and not the Euro champs or the US trials. Can you name a single runner with a PR, 90+seconds slower than the best runners in the race, that ran a PR in an Olympic 10000m? When people are in that situation, they tend to just run and not really have any strategy.
The finishing times anre all relative. Regardless of it being Valby’s ‘level’ specifically, or the warm conditions more broadly, why don’t you see if you can come up with a rational race scenario, or two, based on the recent results from the Euro Champs and US Trials?
What we’ve seen from Valby so far this season is that she has stepped up to the plate and made solid contact.
This will be the Olympics and not the Euro champs or the US trials. Can you name a single runner with a PR, 90+seconds slower than the best runners in the race, that ran a PR in an Olympic 10000m? When people are in that situation, they tend to just run and not really have any strategy.
Those runners you speak probably don’t approach races the same way Valby does. I doubt she thinks she has a chance to medal, but she will go in with a strategy to accomplish some sort of goal. Actually, it’s hard to imagine any runner at this level not having some sort of strategy. You sound like the guy who argued for days that Valby wouldn’t race the 5K final from the front.
Objectively speaking, it probably makes the most sense for her to run both to get as much experience as possible on the big stage. But I like it that she is focusing on having her best possible performance RIGHT NOW instead of gambling and hoping she makes the team again in 2028.
There will be no PR in this race for Valby. It will be like Walmsley in the OT marathon trials. There was a bunch of hype about him doing this, or that, during the race, but he was never seen and was mentioned only once during the broadcast.
I think she finishes 10th but over the next decade moves up to 7th place as a bunch of the Kenyan runners who finish ahead of her test positive for steroids.