hwhwb wrote:
Maybe you don't understand the difference between 'more likely to medal' amd 'more likely to finish higher'. Mills might be more likely to be in better shape in Paris, for example, but more likely to medal?
Or take the example of Potato Tim. People were saying he was done earlier in the season, but he would still be more likely to medal than most because of his pedigree and talent.
Or go back to Coe and Elliott in 84. Coe was chosen because he was more likely to medal and certainly more likely to win.
I think the last few years have all had surprises on the medal stand. Tim, Jakob and Kerr are actually the only repeat medalists in the bunch. And you can see how the athletes that have the pedigree do not just get back to the podium unless they are racing at the top of their game (Wightman is not)
2021:
Jakob (Repeat silver medalist in '22 and '23)
Tim (No medals since, injured in '23 SF, '22 never at top form)
Kerr (Gold in '23, 5th in '22 after bad form all season)
2022:
Jake (First global medal)
Jakob
Katir (First global medal, bounced in semis in '23)
2023:
Josh
Jakob
Nordas (First global medal, '24: ???)
That makes me think for the 3rd spot, I really don't have to look to Tim or Jake any more than I should look for the emerging late-bloomer a la Nordas (Komen?, Mills?), the athlete who has so far done better in DL than championships a la Katir (Nuguse?), the vet with speed who may shock everyone with more strength (Gourley? Habz?) or the (relatively) young athlete developmentally who may hit a new level a la '21 Kerr (Laros? Reynold? Nader? Hobbs? Hocker?). Anyhow, those 3rd placers were all pretty surprising. Kerr was under-the-radar avoiding big races. Katir was having a down season seemingly. Nordas was just completely new and elite out of nowhere.