Let's figure it out here. Road to Paris 10,000m Points after Trials Race

Says who? Is it more for US Champs than Japanese? Because 50 and 45 are the 2nd and 3rd place bonus point values shown for Haruka Kokai, who currently sits 27th on R-2-P with 1236 pts.

https://worldathletics.org/stats-zone/road-to/7153115?eventId=10229521

Nope, not a ton, because when you go down the list, some of those athletes are only running the marathon. One of the XC athletes might be DSD and thus, not competing.

If I'm understanding correctly, we need one more person besides Monson to scratch for Valby and Schweizer to get in:

Valby: 1221 at Bryan Clay + 1205 here (1155 + 50) = 1213

Schweizer: 1218 at The TEN + 1200 here (1155 + 45) = 1209

Last woman in right now is Haruka Kokai at 1236. Ahead of Valby/Schweizer are:

- Elly Henes 1227

- Klara Lukan 1218

- Samantha Harrison 1216 (*GBR already has 3 accounted for ahead of her)

- Natosha Rogers 1215

If only Monson scratches, Henes would get in by quota along with Kelati and Izzo.

But if one other scratches (which should be very likely), Lukan gets in and Valby/Schweizer would presumably then get in after taking out Izzo/Henes/Rogers.

If Henes and Izzo go to Paris over Valby and Schweizer, that would make a total mockery of the Olympic Trials.

Feels like I have to do a 750 level GMAT quant problem to figure this out

OK, so Valby has 1213 points. No. 28 Lukan has 1218 points. Lukan becomes No. 26 if you take out Monson AND Katie Izzo. Valby gets No. 27 with 1213 points. So she's in!

Karissa's next if these points calculations are correct at 1209. The next person able to quality has 1203 pts.

If Sifan Hassan scratches, Karissa's in cause the No, 4 woman from the Netherlands is far down.

So technically now and on June 30th, Izzo will be in.

She will however get bumped if spots open up due to scratches after June 30th.

Seems unfair.

Are we sure that’s how the US selection process works?

Are we sure that the selection process does not read like the following:

If top 3 finisher at trials

AND

Have Qualifying time or is in world ranking quota on June 30th

Then athlete will be selected for Paris

Any unused spot will be filled by the next athlete with the highest finishing position who has Qualifying time or is in world ranking quota on June 30th

I appreciated the post after the men’s steeple pointing out in response to complaints about the world ranking system that someone was able to figure it out pretty quick after the race and posted their analysis, but the fact that in this case almost no one knows what’s really going on and in the men’s steeple hardly anyone knows (and even then it’s speculation) shows how broken and unapproachable the system is. For anyone outside the top hundred or so fans in the world, it’s frankly impossible to follow.

Seb, if you’re reading this, please consider simplifying things… this is the opposite of what the sport needs to do to achieve and retain any sort of relevance beyond the Olympics.

I wonder when they take out Katie Izzo from the spot though. If Valby and Karissa were in the 40s, they would give the spot to Izzo. If Valby is 28, do they still give the spot to Izzo, even though removing Izzo because she didn't come in top 3 gives Parker the No. 27 spot.

Why not just have time standards that represent what the world can run, not just what a few countries in Africa can run. Then you only let the people who meet the standards into the trials, then top 3 at the finish go to the Olympics

If nobody besides Monson scratches, would selectors scratch both Izzo and Henes so Valby can get in?

Really hoping somebody else (like Hassan or one of the XC athletes) scratches so we don't have to think about these hypotheticals. It's a joke that track fans have to go through these mental gymnastics to figure out who is going to the Olympics.

And not realizing Windows 10 is better anyway,

Monson is out, Judd-Warner is out. Do they count all Kenyans and Ethopians after the three they send? If the fourth and up Kenyans and Ethopians come out, then I'd say Valby makes it easily.

Wouldn't US select Valby, then Izzo/Henes/Rogers come out?

If those two are out, then Valby is No. 27 currently with Izzo still on the list.
Then maybe the team is Kelai, Izzo, Valby.

What if Sweden makes their 20th ranked cross-country racer scratch cause they don't think she can medal. Then Karissa is in No. 27 position, and Izzo comes out. The Karissa would be No. 26.

I love how convoluted this is! But I think a really good chance for Valby and a not bad chance for Schweizer.

I believe the scratches only occur after June 30th

They will both make it. We went thru this with Waskom and N Rogers for Budapest.

He was getting ready for a live show. I delayed the live show for 5 minutes to do the research myself. We just finished the live show so here it is. I think they will both make the Olympics.

They indeed will have 1213 and 1209 points which puts them at #27 and #28, but are the Brits really going to send 3? Are all of the xc people going to go, etc?

I guess it's possible others could also get points that were outside of the top 30. What other nationals are this weekend?

They do not count after three per country. Harrison of Great Britain was not counted for that reason and is ahead of Valby, so unfortunately I don't believe Warner-Judd being out affects the standings.

I'm not sure the exact selection procedures. If nobody else scratches, you would have to scratch both Izzo and Henes for Valby to get in. But in that case the team would just be Kelati and Valby.

Again, hoping more athletes scratch and we can avoid all of this confusion. I suppose we won't find out Hassan's plans anytime soon?

Per Gault’s interview with Valby, her coaches were already pretty confident what time she would need before the race.