This. Set aside athletes like Hocker and Fisher, whom this is expected - the fact that anyone had to run either 4:00/01 or 4:03/4 off a reasonable pace just to make a final shows how ridiculously competitive it has become. These types of closes would have been expected of the top 3 in a U.S. final not just to barely scrape into a final.
lol'd at jogged -- his surge from 5th or 6th to the front with a lap to go almost reminded me of Alan Webb's famous 2007 blitzed 100m. Obviously Hocker is elite-tier, but I don't think he's anywhere near Grant in an honest race. Not anywhere near Teare or Kincaid, either. At the LA Grand Prix, he ran 12:59, lost to Teare by 5 seconds and Grant by 6. In an honest race, I think Coop has a better chance at taking down Grant than Cole.
If Grant is content to just make the team or doesn't feel like pushing until later, there may be some other dudes that would prefer it fast and not have to deal with Hocker, and to a lesser extent Teare, or even some other decent kickers, like Wolfe or Prakel (who sneakily made the final and could be a darkhorse if it's slow and tactical). My guess is even if Grant is content to let it dawdle, Nur won't want it slow, Blanks won't if he is in contention, McGorty might not want to deal with the 1500 dudes. If the pace is sub 13:15 before the last 1200/1600, I think Grant and Teare both have the strength for a long extended push that would be too much for Hocker. Those two plus Kincaid would be my picks in a fast race, with Nur as a darkhorse. In a slower race, still think Grant gets it done but it makes room for Hocker, maybe Prakel.
lol'd at jogged -- his surge from 5th or 6th to the front with a lap to go almost reminded me of Alan Webb's famous 2007 blitzed 100m. Obviously Hocker is elite-tier, but I don't think he's anywhere near Grant in an honest race. Not anywhere near Teare or Kincaid, either. At the LA Grand Prix, he ran 12:59, lost to Teare by 5 seconds and Grant by 6. In an honest race, I think Coop has a better chance at taking down Grant than Cole.
If Grant is content to just make the team or doesn't feel like pushing until later, there may be some other dudes that would prefer it fast and not have to deal with Hocker, and to a lesser extent Teare, or even some other decent kickers, like Wolfe or Prakel (who sneakily made the final and could be a darkhorse if it's slow and tactical). My guess is even if Grant is content to let it dawdle, Nur won't want it slow, Blanks won't if he is in contention, McGorty might not want to deal with the 1500 dudes. If the pace is sub 13:15 before the last 1200/1600, I think Grant and Teare both have the strength for a long extended push that would be too much for Hocker. Those two plus Kincaid would be my picks in a fast race, with Nur as a darkhorse. In a slower race, still think Grant gets it done but it makes room for Hocker, maybe Prakel.
Well yes in an honest race Hocker is a long shot but Olympic Trials and even Olympics are so rarely honest races.
Isnt the OT record in the US a 13:22?
Would be shocked if that didn't go down, but would also be shocked if the winner runs sub-13.
This is somewhat of a stacked field though. I don't really see Fisher not making the team, but Teare, Hocker, Kincaid/Nur could definetely be a possibility and would be a solid team. Really, really struggling to predict what's going to happen here.
lol'd at jogged -- his surge from 5th or 6th to the front with a lap to go almost reminded me of Alan Webb's famous 2007 blitzed 100m. Obviously Hocker is elite-tier, but I don't think he's anywhere near Grant in an honest race. Not anywhere near Teare or Kincaid, either. At the LA Grand Prix, he ran 12:59, lost to Teare by 5 seconds and Grant by 6. In an honest race, I think Coop has a better chance at taking down Grant than Cole.
If Grant is content to just make the team or doesn't feel like pushing until later, there may be some other dudes that would prefer it fast and not have to deal with Hocker, and to a lesser extent Teare, or even some other decent kickers, like Wolfe or Prakel (who sneakily made the final and could be a darkhorse if it's slow and tactical). My guess is even if Grant is content to let it dawdle, Nur won't want it slow, Blanks won't if he is in contention, McGorty might not want to deal with the 1500 dudes. If the pace is sub 13:15 before the last 1200/1600, I think Grant and Teare both have the strength for a long extended push that would be too much for Hocker. Those two plus Kincaid would be my picks in a fast race, with Nur as a darkhorse. In a slower race, still think Grant gets it done but it makes room for Hocker, maybe Prakel.
Prakel? 😂 he will be lucky to be top 6 or 7. Won't be within 3 seconds of making a team no matter the type of race it is
The top 8 at Budapest were all sub 4 in far worse conditions and at a faster pace. The ability to go sub 4 in the last 1600 is essentially a prerequisite to finish in the top half these days.
Viren, Stewart, Gamoudi and Prefontaine were close to close a 13:16 race with a 4 min 1600m 50 years ago.....
In the 5k maybe not, in the 1500 he definitely is medaling
Definitely medaling?
Jakob and Josh are taking home 2 of the medals. That leaves 1 for the rest of the planet. Hocker got 7th at Pre, just a month ago, in a race that’s likely a preview of the Olympic final. he *could* medal, but I would bet against it at even odds. In the 5000, I’d bet against with it even with far longer odds.