What is the best race strategy for Valby in 5000 final?

The situation must be dire for Will Palmer to be crowdsourcing race tips from letsrun

PR pace evenly throughout is her best chance. In a sub-15 race, Cranny is not closing in 62. When Hassan pulled Cranny to 14:46 at PTF 2 wks ago, she closed in 69.30 and every other split was btwn 72-69. Valby can do the same.

And that was in 60 degree weather.

Here are Valby’s last 11 laps two weeks ago in 80+ weather with high humidity.

71-71-71-71-70-70-70-71-70-70-69

That’s what she needs to do again, with a faster first 600M. Temps will be a little lower than two weeks ago.

They may beat her, but they’ll have to work for it.

Friend, we have been pretty much in agreement. Interestingly, we even cross posted, you here, while I was addressing you on another thread. You’ve rewound the tapes. So have I. Many times, analyzing.

How will that help her with three women who can run in the low 14:40s.

Stay tough and cross her fingers that one of the top three have a bad day. She is about 10 seconds out. It might be more in her favor if it was hotter weather. She might be able to out kick Scheitzer. On paper the other three should win but I wouldn't count her out.

None of the above. She should run it like the prelim, honest pace but save something for a kick.

I think her best shot is to try and run as fast as time as possible. That likely means an even split, or slightly negative split race. One possible issue she might face in trying to do that might be ESP hindering her.

she has to run faster than the others

Several "advisors" have suggested she "drive the bus" and make ESP, EC & KS hurt with at least 3 laps remaining in the race. The only other tactic that could break those three is to throw in several insane surges off a fast pace prior to the last two laps to break away from her opponents (It's risky and I've never seen PV incorporate this strategy.) Lastly, we should appreciate her upcoming effort since she guarantees it will not be a pedestrian pace for the first three K.

Agreed. I think it's a little too late in this cycle to try to reinvent herself as a skilled tactician, which she has never been (or needed to be) up until now. Go hard and make the others have to earn their spots by beating the fastest she's got in her, with her knowing that she left it all out there on the track (Pre mentality). I think it's her best chance. She can just relax and focus on running hard, letting the chips fall where they may. This obviously may not work, but I don't see a better approach for her. If she doesn't make top three but runs a PB or close to it, she can leave feeling very positive about her performance and look forward to focusing on fixing deficiencies required to make her a force to be reckoned with at the professional level in years to come.

Schweizer seems to be the weakest of the big three right now. Valby should forget about trying to beat St. Pierre and Cranny. Let them kick past her at the end. The question is what kind of tactics are most likely to enable her to beat Schweizer. I think a hard pace from the gun is her best bet, given how Schweizer fell back late against Hassan and Cranny a few weeks ago. It's also what Valby is most comfortable doing anyway.

Like other runners, Valby can kick off of a slow pace, but she her top-end speed is slower than most of the other runners in the final. If she had good top-end speed, she would have run some 1500m races by now like Touhy has.

The best runners in the race will be near the front so she will not be surprising anyone, and they can easily run her down from 2-3 seconds behind, anyway.

As for strategy, she’s not making the 5000m team, so nothing good would come from setting a kamikaze pace. A crash and burn, would hardly be a conference builder for the 10.

I don't think anyone is suggesting a kamikaze crash and burn strategy. Just a hard, appropriate pace to target her best, realistic time possible. It sounds like you are saying she has no options worth trying to be competitive with. So what would you advise she do? Scratch the 5 final and just focus on the 10? That's an option for her, but it doesn't answer the question posed in the premise of this thread.

Won't matter what her strategy is, she is not beating St. Pierre or Cranny. Those two are locked in like heat-seeking missiles on Saddam's compound. I'll say it again: her strategy HAS to be just shadowing Schweizer and squeezing past her at the end. If she does her usual strategy of pacer -- it's not going to end well. Not at this level.

Listen folks, I don't mean to beat a dead horse or ruffle any tail feathers here, but the simple fact remains.....no matter where Parker Valby places, she will always be....THE PEOPLE'S CHAMPION!!!!!!!!!

She likes to lead. She needs to grind down a 14:45.

Of course she will run the 5, but she’s not making the 5000m team. Pushing the pace against significantly faster runners, is not going to play in her favor. There’s also a pretty good chance that others will set a sub-15:00 pace, anyway.

I’ve never seen a race like some of you are suggesting, which is to set a hot pace against better runners, and hang on for 3rd. Under that scenario, she would have a hard time breaking 70 for the last lap. Again, I’ve never seen it before, and something more extreme than what happened to Castro, when he tried to close the gap on Ngugi, is likely to happen:

Correct idea; horrible strategy.

You’re right in that she has no chance against ESP and Cranny (assuming everyone is healthy on race day.) Schweizer indeed looks to be the most vulnerable.

But she CANNOT ‘squeeze past her’ at the end. Schweizer has run 4:00 as recently as 2 years ago, and easily ran past her during prelims. In a 5000, she has had finishing laps as low as 64 seconds.

I think Valby needs to take it out to 8:45 at 3000m, 2:55 per km. It’s doable for her and it would help negate the kick out of the others.
The fastest 3000m split in the last few national 5000 races was a 9:00.