NXN 2024 Girls

Respectfully, I can't agree with you for one reason: Many high schools don't care much about Cross Country, and they are coached by an unqualified teacher/coach who is not an expert on running. A good coach can do so much for a young athlete, and they should not be stuck with a bad coach and influenced by teammates who just aren't as serious about the sport.

I do, however, disagree with athletes going to schools with stacked teams when they don't look into it deeper to see how much that team's athletes improve while under that coach. For example, Buchanan and J Serra has athletes who come to that school after already being fast in middle school (or their previous school, if they transferred), and they win as a team, but the athletes do not show the same level of improvement as others do. Based on a recent analysis I have seen, the average year over year 5K PR improvement from Freshman to Sophomore year is :32, from Soph to Junior year, avearage improvement is :31 seconds, and Junior to senior year, the improvement drops to :27. The 2 successful schools I mentioned above average less than half of those improvement numbers, year over year. Not sure if coaching is to blame, but more likely that the already-successful athletes who run for those schools previously had good club coaches who didn't leave them with as much room for improvement. Sometimes that club coach is their high school coach, so I don't want to take any credit away from a good youth program that feeds to a good high school.

Either way, young athletes who are serious about running should not be limited to the coaching at the school their parents happened to choose to live near. Let them transfer all they want, and don't penalize them with a sitout period when they do.

"Many high schools don't care much about Cross Country"... what are you talking about? Have you ever attended any major invitational in the country? Every single school has representation.

Absurd response. "Every single school has representation"??? Are you serious, bud? Many teams only go to local invite races once or twice a year, and run in league. Some do altitude training or summer camps, while others don't.

You think all schools are equally committed to giving their athletes the best opportunities to train and improve? Absolutely the most out of touch thing I've read on Let's Run.

There are coaches who give so much to their athletes in terms of focused training, goal-setting, health-monitoring and motivation, while other schools are coached someone with good intentions, but less knowledge or effort, who just agreed to fill a void and make a little $5k stipend. Bless them for their efforts, but if you've got a young athlete and you're just going to trust them to anyone or any school and think they're getting the best opportunity, you're not helping your kid be successful.

I still can't believe you took the time to post this as an argument against the previous factual post, as if 100% "representation" at an invite race (which is a silly statement) would signify that each school gives equal focus to running. C'mon now. Stop wasting one another's time with this nonsense.

NXN Girl's Predictions
1. Mountain Vista (CO)
2. J Serra (CA)
3. Ventura (CA)
4. Lone Peak (UT)
5. Buchanan (CA)
6. Air Academy (CO)
7. Niwot (CO)
8. Union Catholic (NJ)

Mountain Vista will take first by a solid margin. The CA schools will battle it out for second and third.

J Serra lost their #1 runner. Wilson is transferring. They’ll still be very good, but definitely not #2 at NXN. Air Academy lost 4 seniors. They’ll miss the top 10, if they even make it to NXN.

Air Academy only lost 1 senior (Michalak). I think they will be top 2 in the nation

Instead of Air Academy, I think you meant Niwot? They were the ones who lost 4 seniors

J Serra looks like they have 7 returners who run a sub 5 mile. That seems like a deep squad that if those mile times translate to good 5Ks.

Not counting out Lone Peak for a podium finish. They will be very good this fall with a lot of depth, and they had an extremely impressive showing on the girls side at the Utah State Meet in May.

My bad. I confused the 2, ignoring my own data about graduating seniors on the previous page of this thread.

Academy will still be outstanding, and unless Niwot's freshmen girls from last year emerge, they're unlikely to go back to NXN as a team after losing Perkins, Prok, Justice and Alessandrini.

Yes, thanks to their advantage of being a private school, they can recruit fast middle schoolers - and they do. They're probably the deepest girls team in the country, and will be even deeper with more incoming freshmen. They'd be a podium threat for sure if Wilson wasn't leaving, but she's headed to Irvine. Their top 7 are all solid, and consistent. None are dominant, but they'll be able to run their 'B' team at CIF prelims, and could easily win D4 CIF finals and probably a D4 State Championship with that B team as well.

In my opinion, school size should not apply to private schools when putting them into Divisions. They should be in D1 or D2. I'm sure they'd be willing to race at a higher division if they had a choice. It is what it is, though.

Timberline out of Idaho (East Boise at NXR) could be a dark horse to qualify.

They upset strong Rocky Mountain and Boise teams (4th and 6th at NXR) to win the Idaho state meet last year, and return 5 of their top 7.

Gallatin from Montana placed 5th at NXR and return their top 10. The Montana teams seem to have a pattern of hiding up in Montana all season and then giving big performances at Bob Firman and NXR, so they could surprise some people who weren't thinking about them.

Boise also returns 5 of their 7. It's hard to get a pulse on them, as they were projected to go top 3 in the region and win state, but their top runner played international soccer instead.

Rocky Mountain was a surprise last year, they weren't supposed to get 2nd at state or place very high at NXR, but snagged a second consecutive 4th place finish. They also return 5 of 7, and at the Idaho state meet, their 1-6 placed within 15 seconds of each other.

If Rocky can get that pack to stay intact at NXR and all finish in the 40-50 range, with a low stick in the top 20, they could make NXN.

Central Kitsap from Washington returns a strong 1-3, but they don't have much depth and graduated 4 of their 7.

CA Girls, updated with 2 big transfers. Buchanan clearly has the best top 5 runners, with the other 4 schools ridiculously close to one another, with Ventura now favored as the 2nd ranked team in the State, thanks to a transfer, and Trabuco, Santiago and J Serra are all neck and neck.

Based on top 5 scorers:

#1 Buchanan
13Lomelli
16Torosian
26Sundgren
37Hutchison
40Buckley
Total: 132

#2 Ventura
1Engelhardt
23True
30Grant*
57Sax
63Curtis
Total: 174

#3 Santiago
2Blade
8Combe
16Davis
60Buckley
90Whitecavage
Total: 176

#4 Trabuco
3Barker
15Watts
30Desormeau
47Bayles
85Guilfoile*
Total: 180

#5 J Serra
9Polay
20Tasser
21Garcia
60Holley
75Elbaz
Total: 185

(* = Transfer)

Since the California top 5 is so intriguing and a very close battle, I crunched some numbers and ranked each team based on just their top 4, then by their top 3 and each team's top 2 runners. If it were a 4-scorer sport,

Santiago ranks best based on their Top 4, top 3 and top 2. They have 3 returning All-State runners with Blade/Combe/Davis, with Trabuco right on their tails with their top 2 and top 3 (Barker/Watts/Desormeau).

J Serra also returns 3 All-Staters with Polay/Tasser/Garcia in Division 4.

Buchanan:
Top 2 rank: 5
Top 3 rank: 4
Top 4 rank: 2

Ventura
Top 2 rank: 3
Top 3 rank: 5
Top 4 rank: 4

Santiago
Top 2 rank: 1
Top 3 rank: 1
Top 4 rank: 1

J Serra
Top 2 rank: 5
Top 3 rank: 3
Top 4 rank: 5

Trabuco
Top 2 rank: 2
Top 3 rank: 2
Top 4 rank: 3

Here we goooo... My National rankings.

This was a fun analysis for the Girls side. Sorry boys, I'm biased. I might get to yours later.

So, I ranked the top 23 teams in the country based on their 5k PR's by 2024 returning athletes, adding a couple of the transfers that I know about, here is what the opening rankings and a potential NXN scoring would look like.

THERE ARE FIVE CALIFORNIA TEAMS IN THE NATIONAL TOP 10 and 3 COLORADO TEAMS.

Sadly, only 6 of those 8 teams will go to NXN... meaning at least 2 of the top 10 teams in the United States will not get the invite. This is a travesty - especially for a ridiculously talented group of California girls in 2024.

Yes, there may be slower teams not on this list who will go to NXN by winning their region, but they're not on this list. Sorry, but they won't be a factor.

1 Air Academy High School (CO) Total 93
2 Mountain Vista High School (CO) Total 145
3 Buchanan (CS) (CA) Total 165
4 JSerra Catholic (SS) (CA) Total 225
5 Cardinal Gibbons (NC) Total 232
6 Ventura (SS) (CA) Total 235
7 Niwot High School (CO) Total 244
8 Romeo (MI) Total 258
9 Santiago Corona (SS) (CA) Total 273
10 Trabuco Hills (SS) (CA) Total 277
11 Webb School of Knoxville (TN) Total 291
12 Jesuit (OR) Total 315
13 Lone Peak (UT) Total 316
14 Brentwood High School (TN) Total 319
15 Auburn (AL) Total 326
16 Mount Si High School (WA) Total 330
17 Wayzata High School (MN) Total 382
18 Barrington (IL) Total 407
19 Bethlehem Central (NY) Total 421
20 Downers Grove (North) (IL) Total 432
21 Holland West Ottawa (MI) Total 455
22 Union Catholic Reg. HS (NJ) Total 462
23 Oyster River High School (NH) Total 472

Did you consider Keegan Edwards and the IMG transfer for Mountain Vista? Keeps things interesting for sure. No doubt there is tons of talent!

I did not include Edwards, but based on her 16:53 PR, that's a 62 point improvement, moving them up to the #1 spot. Let me know who the other transfer is and I'll add her, but that will only extend their lead.

I'm still surprised by Niwot's depth. I ruled them out before when I saw that they lost 4 seniors, but have great depth, and will stay in the top 10.

***UPDATED***

1 Mountain Vista High School (CO) Total 83 (with Edwards)
2 Air Academy High School (CO) Total 93
3 Buchanan (CS) (CA) Total 165
4 JSerra Catholic (SS) (CA) Total 225 (no Summer Wilson)
5 Cardinal Gibbons (NC) Total 232
6 Ventura (SS) (CA) Total 235
7 Niwot High School (CO) Total 244
8 Romeo (MI) Total 258
9 Santiago Corona (SS) (CA) Total 273
10 Trabuco Hills (SS) (CA) Total 277

If anyone knows of any other transfers, please let me know.