By the way, let's forget Jakob for a second. One element that isn't talked about enough is the fact that for someone like Kejelcha, Aregawi, Kiplimo, etc, they don't necessarily beat the other guys either in a slower race. Aregawi got 4th in a slow 10k in Tokyo behind Barega, Kiplimo and Cheptegei. He also got 4th in a slow 10k in Eugene behind Barega. Kiplimo got 5th in a slow 5k in Tokyo behind slower athletes. So what I'm saying is that even if we take Jakob out of the equation, some of the Africans are still running sub-optimal strategic races. Kejelcha for example would in almost all scenarios have a better chance of medaling in a faster, time-trial style race, even if he himself has to set the pace. How many times have we not seen him get out-kicked? Aregawi as well would benefit from this style of race (either in the 5k or 10k).
With especially the 5k being so competitive this year, athletes with bad kicks and finishes should really think twice before settling for a slow race. I think its not unlikely that the likes of Kejelcha, Aregawi, Gebrehiwet, maybe Kiplimo and Cheptegei loses to athletes such as Nordås (who's got a great kick, assuming he qualifies), Almgren (fast 800 and 1500m times), Fisher, Grijalva and others in a slow race around 13:00. So, my point is that some of these athletes, regardless of if they think Jakob can hang on, still would greatly benefit from a fast race in order to shake slower athletes that possibly would beat them in a finish.
Now, history has shown us that this is unlikely to happen, but I hope we for once will see a fast 5000m in an Olympic final. I am aware that the OR is still 12:57 by Bekele in 2008, but we are likely to see a Final field where all athletes have PBs better than this. So all it will take is for one of them to set a fast time.
And to the point some people are making that the Africans should collaborate on a time-trial style race, or that Ethiopians for example "sacrifice" someone to set the pace, I think this is unlikely, as people are individuals and will be racing for themselves. Although, we have seen Morocco do this in the past with someone sacrificing themselves for El Guerrouj. Nevertheless, I think it would take for someone to kind of "stupidly" set a high pace or that it happens naturally like we've seen in some championship races. Kipchoge won WC in 12:52 in 2003 with him, Bekele and El Guerrouj setting the pace and swapping places frontrunning. If something like this transpires, I think we can see someone other than Jakob perhaps winning.
1. Kejelcha is a much better finisher than you seem to acknowledge (f.ex his 7.23 against Jakob, and WC silver behind Cheptegei). And even Aregawi can kick fiercely under the right circumstances…
2. Yes, Nordås is a kicker.-Almgren not so much; his 1,45 800m from another “training life”.
3. The weather is probably a huge factor -Kejelcha and Nordås are not the same athletes in hot and humid temperatures. Possibly neither Aragawi. And the Ethiopians seem to have a peaking problem as well…
4. We don’t know if Jakob is back to 2023 healthy shape in Paris OG…
1. Didn't mean to diminish his qualities (I LOVE Kejelcha), I just have doubts about him (and Aregawi for that matter) in a 5k final race around 13:00 as there are better kickers in the field. He's also lost too many finals for me to think he'll come out on top in a tactical race.
2. You're right, Almgren's 800m time is from a long time ago under different training system. Nevertheless, I'm still led to believe Africans will be punished in a slower race (by the likes of Nordås, Ingebrigtsen, etc).
3. Agree on this. Can be a huge factor in the favor of Africans. On peaking, unfortunately you are right. Hopefully everyone can/will be at their best come Olympics.
4. True, we don't know, but he's known to be uncompromising and always in shape for Championships. And his 3:29 in Oslo is still very strong. Remember he was injured for a while. Europeans will give a solid indication.
pick the weakest of the three (perhaps Aregawi) and tell him the good news and bad news.
"The good news, Aregawi, is you get to the run both the 10K and the 5K. Congratulations! The bad news is you have to pace the 5K. You have to run the first 3K under 7:40.
"if you would rather not participate in the Olympics, that is fine. But if you do this and you do a good job as the pacer, it will redound to your benefit when we select our team for the world championships next year."
People can talk about nobody wanting to sacrifice their own race, but its not like they are even medaling with their current strategy, so what is there to lose?
Totally agree on this point. They should really re-consider their strategy. Zero medals for the 5000m would be a disaster with what they've shown in recent times in terms of performances.
Let's remove Jakob from the equation...guys like Kiplimo, Aregawi and Gebrhiwet have likely zero chance of winning gold if they make it a race slower than 13:05...also Kejelcha (who is a better miler than the previous three) is not one of the favourites as well, in that kind of race.
In other words, if you make it a 13:10 race (like Eugene and Budapest) then all the 13:10 guys (which means everybody in the final, basically) is going to be in contention for gold up to 4200 m (and most also up to 4600 m), so for stronger but slower runners like them, there is no chance to win (even if Jakob doesn't run at all).
Just look at Budapest: the best one of the four that I mentioned finished 5th.
100% agree. I think Ethiopians especially will be at a huge disadvantage in a slower race.
I agree with many of your points but I am possibly even more positive on Jakob´s potential in the 5000m. After the 5000m final in Eugene 2022 there was a thread asking "How do you beat Jakob in the 5000m". My answer was: "You don´t" as long as he stays healthy.
I already after the 5000m final in the 2021 Tokyo OG predicted that Jakob would be the man to beat in the 5000m in the future (as you possibly know Jakob couldn´t double in Tokyo due to the tight schedule).
So provided he stays healthy until Paris I will repeat my former predictions. He will be the clear favorite both in a fast race and a tactical one. If he can train and race without interruptions I am quite certain he at least will be in his 2023 two miles shape and if so, no one can run away from him. In this shape he can run as fast as Gebrhiwet and Kejelcha did in Oslo.
Jakob tired from rounds? As you write yourself he normally recover very fast due to his high aerobic capacity. Rounds in the 1500m are normally just sharpeners for Jakob as he can cruise to a "Q" so it is only from the final in the 1500m to the heat in the 5000m there could be a problem. Assuming he will "survive" the 5000m heat he has plenty of time to recover (and actually to experience super compensation) before the final 3 days later.
The East Africans doubling the 10000m and the 5000m. If they can´t recover from the 10000m final to the 5000m heat I don´t think they have potential to win anything. And after the heat they are on equal terms with Jakob. (this is a point to the opener).
By the way: Gebrhiwet has twice raced quite well in the 5000m only two days after the Ethiopian 10000m trials (DL London 2019 and DL Florence 2021).
I think Gebrhiwet will win if it's a sub 13 race. His 55/56 closing lap to run 12:36 was very impressive. You'd think that if it was 'only' a 12:55 paced race he'd close even faster in a 54 or 53 high. I'm not so sure Jakob could close in a 54 in a 12:55 race. When Jakob won in 2023 with a 13:11 he closed in 52.5 seconds, but they were a low 13:20 pace going into the final lap. In Eugene 2022 he won with 13:09 with a 53.9 second close. So again, he has won with 52/53 closing speed in 13:09-13:11 races, but Gebrhiwet could likely close in a 54 in a 12:50 type race and I think that would win.
I think even sub-13 wouldn't be fast enough (unless it's very hot) to beat Jakob. I think he needs sub-12:55. Gebrhiwet, Kejelcha and Aregawi have shown they can close very fast off really fast paces. Their problem is at a certain point as the races slow they don't seem to be able to go any faster like their compatriots Muktar Edris and Selemon Barega as well as competitors Jakob and Jacob Krop (and even Luis!) have shown more capability of doing.
The Ethiopians should really consider making it hard from at least 3,000 meters out to build the necessary gap. They have the horses for this if all 3 make the final with Yihune as possibly the "worst" runner on the squad. They need to build a gap from Krop and Jakob, and possibly even Cheptegei if he peaks well. None of them are great tacticians and none have the extra gear needed to win a 12:55+ race. Sure one or two of them might not make it in the final last 200, which is the prisoner's dilemma.
Old school. With 400 to go, have 2 box him up and have the other one take off. The two that form the box slow down and make Jacob have to go out the back and then run out in lane3. Will easily get the front guy the .5s he needs.
or when we goes for the water break start running 60s…
As the dust finally has settled after DL Oslo we start looking forward to Paris (there's Europeans first of course). Now, judging by the last two WC 5000s that Jakob won, and the 5k in Tokyo (which he probably also would win), we can probably say that in a race that finishes over or around 13:00 Jakob probably wins. I've seen a lot of takes on here that Jakob wins the 5k in Paris no matter how the race develops, but I would like to hear some more takes on this. Now, assuming Jakob doubles (which he prob will), he will have 1500m Heat 1 on August 2nd, Semis on August 4th, and Final on August 6th. Then, he'll have 5000m Heat 1 on August 7th, and Final on August 10th.
Now, 10,000m final is on August 2nd, and I think that Ethiopia should send 6 (at least 5) different athletes to compete in the two events, as I think this greatly increases their chances to medal. If Gebrehiwet and/or Kejelcha (I assume Ugandans will run the 10k first) comes in to the 5k fresh, do people really still believe that they stand no chance against Jakob?
I'd like people to freely discuss which scenarios they think we could see for the 5k in Paris and also which scenarios we would have to see in order for Jakob NOT to win.
Note: I'm writing this because in previous comps (WC 2022 and 2023) I've been "frustrated" in how Jakob has been handed the gold by people being afraid to set the pace and the races being won in slow times (13:11 and 13:09). Please note that I have nothing against Jakob or anyone else for that matter. I would just like everyone to play off their strengths in order to get the most competitive race possible. Knowing that Ugandans, Ethiopians and (maybe) Kenyans CAN run 12.40 times, but choose to (or afraid to) not set the pace just to hand the races to faster 1500m guys. DISCUSS! Happy to hear thought on this.
...
Just like the Kenyan women did at the lasr World X Championship, go from the gun abd burn everyone OFF. If weather permits sub 12'40 pace from the gun-:one of the Ethiopians will survive, maybe 2.
Let's remove Jakob from the equation...guys like Kiplimo, Aregawi and Gebrhiwet have likely zero chance of winning gold if they make it a race slower than 13:05...also Kejelcha (who is a better miler than the previous three) is not one of the favourites as well, in that kind of race.
In other words, if you make it a 13:10 race (like Eugene and Budapest) then all the 13:10 guys (which means everybody in the final, basically) is going to be in contention for gold up to 4200 m (and most also up to 4600 m), so for stronger but slower runners like them, there is no chance to win (even if Jakob doesn't run at all).
Just look at Budapest: the best one of the four that I mentioned finished 5th.
Gebrhiwet has closed with some pretty fast kicks before in the 53 range so I'd say he has a better than zero chance
Let's remove Jakob from the equation...guys like Kiplimo, Aregawi and Gebrhiwet have likely zero chance of winning gold if they make it a race slower than 13:05...also Kejelcha (who is a better miler than the previous three) is not one of the favourites as well, in that kind of race.
In other words, if you make it a 13:10 race (like Eugene and Budapest) then all the 13:10 guys (which means everybody in the final, basically) is going to be in contention for gold up to 4200 m (and most also up to 4600 m), so for stronger but slower runners like them, there is no chance to win (even if Jakob doesn't run at all).
Just look at Budapest: the best one of the four that I mentioned finished 5th.
Gebrhiwet has closed with some pretty fast kicks before in the 53 range so I'd say he has a better than zero chance
How soon we forget. Here is a 12:48 race where JI was dropped and rallied to beat the Africans with 56 last lap (including Gebrhiwet). He was 20 years old…
I think Gebrhiwet will win if it's a sub 13 race. His 55/56 closing lap to run 12:36 was very impressive. You'd think that if it was 'only' a 12:55 paced race he'd close even faster in a 54 or 53 high. I'm not so sure Jakob could close in a 54 in a 12:55 race. When Jakob won in 2023 with a 13:11 he closed in 52.5 seconds, but they were a low 13:20 pace going into the final lap. In Eugene 2022 he won with 13:09 with a 53.9 second close. So again, he has won with 52/53 closing speed in 13:09-13:11 races, but Gebrhiwet could likely close in a 54 in a 12:50 type race and I think that would win.
I think even sub-13 wouldn't be fast enough (unless it's very hot) to beat Jakob. I think he needs sub-12:55. Gebrhiwet, Kejelcha and Aregawi have shown they can close very fast off really fast paces. Their problem is at a certain point as the races slow they don't seem to be able to go any faster like their compatriots Muktar Edris and Selemon Barega as well as competitors Jakob and Jacob Krop (and even Luis!) have shown more capability of doing.
The Ethiopians should really consider making it hard from at least 3,000 meters out to build the necessary gap. They have the horses for this if all 3 make the final with Yihune as possibly the "worst" runner on the squad. They need to build a gap from Krop and Jakob, and possibly even Cheptegei if he peaks well. None of them are great tacticians and none have the extra gear needed to win a 12:55+ race. Sure one or two of them might not make it in the final last 200, which is the prisoner's dilemma.
Going hard with 3K to go doesn’t do a lot when the 2mile WR holder is in the race. They need to hammer from the gun, and none of them is capable of doing that alone.
Gebrhiwet has closed with some pretty fast kicks before in the 53 range so I'd say he has a better than zero chance
How soon we forget. Here is a 12:48 race where JI was dropped and rallied to beat the Africans with 56 last lap (including Gebrhiwet). He was 20 years old…
All I was saying was Gebrhiwet has shown he has one of the better kicks of 5,000m runners.so wouldn't include him with the others that don't. I feel he has a chance in any sort of race
People can talk about nobody wanting to sacrifice their own race, but its not like they are even medaling with their current strategy, so what is there to lose?
Totally agree on this point. They should really re-consider their strategy. Zero medals for the 5000m would be a disaster with what they've shown in recent times in terms of performances.
If any of them can run under the world record in a grand prix ,theyll have a good chance at olympic gold. Also run fast from the outset as a team. Any east african who can run 12.30 has to be a strong contender,so long as they run as close to that,as possible in tokyo. I remember almaz ayana running fast from gun to tape,churning out lap after lap,to burn off genzebe dibaba . Jakob wont be much of a factor,if they do that,especially as he hasnt run a super fast 5000 in some time.
Let's remove Jakob from the equation...guys like Kiplimo, Aregawi and Gebrhiwet have likely zero chance of winning gold if they make it a race slower than 13:05...also Kejelcha (who is a better miler than the previous three) is not one of the favourites as well, in that kind of race.
In other words, if you make it a 13:10 race (like Eugene and Budapest) then all the 13:10 guys (which means everybody in the final, basically) is going to be in contention for gold up to 4200 m (and most also up to 4600 m), so for stronger but slower runners like them, there is no chance to win (even if Jakob doesn't run at all).
Just look at Budapest: the best one of the four that I mentioned finished 5th.
Gebrhiwet has closed with some pretty fast kicks before in the 53 range so I'd say he has a better than zero chance
Anybody in the final has more than 0.00% chance of winning, the point is what is the tactics that maximizes the chance to win. Apparently, betting to be the best 400 meters runner against a field that includes a lot of 1500 faster guys is not the best one for Gebrhiwet (let it alone for Kiplimo, Aregawi, etc.), given his record in past finals...
I think Gebrhiwet will win if it's a sub 13 race. His 55/56 closing lap to run 12:36 was very impressive. You'd think that if it was 'only' a 12:55 paced race he'd close even faster in a 54 or 53 high. I'm not so sure Jakob could close in a 54 in a 12:55 race. When Jakob won in 2023 with a 13:11 he closed in 52.5 seconds, but they were a low 13:20 pace going into the final lap. In Eugene 2022 he won with 13:09 with a 53.9 second close. So again, he has won with 52/53 closing speed in 13:09-13:11 races, but Gebrhiwet could likely close in a 54 in a 12:50 type race and I think that would win.
I think even sub-13 wouldn't be fast enough (unless it's very hot) to beat Jakob. I think he needs sub-12:55. Gebrhiwet, Kejelcha and Aregawi have shown they can close very fast off really fast paces. Their problem is at a certain point as the races slow they don't seem to be able to go any faster like their compatriots Muktar Edris and Selemon Barega as well as competitors Jakob and Jacob Krop (and even Luis!) have shown more capability of doing.
The Ethiopians should really consider making it hard from at least 3,000 meters out to build the necessary gap. They have the horses for this if all 3 make the final with Yihune as possibly the "worst" runner on the squad. They need to build a gap from Krop and Jakob, and possibly even Cheptegei if he peaks well. None of them are great tacticians and none have the extra gear needed to win a 12:55+ race. Sure one or two of them might not make it in the final last 200, which is the prisoner's dilemma.
You still think they an gap Jakob if he is in top shape?! They couldn´t even hang on to him (apart from Kejelcha) last year in the 3000m in Eugene when Jakob ran on tired legs.
This hasn't been mentioned much before, but I think it could be nice if they alternated laps of 63 and 60. This may not work since Jakob has such a high lactic threshold, but if he's tired after the 1500, this alternating pace may throw off his rhythm while still being fast at a 61.5 average pace. Or, they can go 62 60 if possible.
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