Will a sub 1:40 for 800m be broken soon?

On a related note, I think part of the problem with 800m running is that most of the talented speed guys tend to be exceptional all round athletes, and therefore end up gaining notable amounts of weight / muscle mass to play other sports which comes with far more upside for them (both socially (through aesthetics and being dominant in skill sports) and athletically). And it begins EARLY - 14/15, if that.

As an example. I was the second best 800m runner in my county (in the UK) at 13/14, and I trained for it as my primary sport, going to one of the best athletic clubs in the country (which has seen multiple Olympic champions pass through).

One PE lesson at school we were put into groups to run the 800m. In the first group, the best all round athlete in my school year ran and easily beat everyone else. They recorded the times, then had the second group (which I was in) run. This lad told the PE teacher he wanted to run again, then proceeded to beat me easily. 2 minutes later he ran again, and won the third race.

He did this off incidental 'mileage' from sports training.

But already he was above optimal weight for 800m (just down to sheer muscle mass), and getting a lot of positive reinforcement for his looks and strength. Try sitting a kid like that down and saying "hey, you're talented at running. If you lose some muscle and quit all your fun team sports, then you could be a quality 800m runner'.

It's just not happening.

Sebastian Coe ran 1:41.73 with a 400m PB of 46.87. This would suggest that someone with 45.8ish 400m speed could theoretically break 1:40 if they had similar speed endurance to Coe.

It seems to me that more and more people are going under 1:44 but no one is going under 1:42.

I don't think we'll see it in the Olympics because the semi's are going to be so tough to get out of they'll have to run fast there.

I hope I'm wrong- I DO think Arop is the one who can do it but someone has to set it up.

Arop definitely will never run close to 1:41.

That could be- I just don't see anyone at this time being capable of doing it.

Sedjati looked strong yesterday but I don't think we will see a sub 1:42 this season. But the 1500m is getting stronger so I expect also many great talents in the 800m soon.

Never say never. But i agree. Seems maybe the least likely record to be broken soon, let alone sub 1:40, which almost a full second off? DR seemed almost perfection out there, seemed almost unfair with that stride.

I'm relatively new to the 800 - how often did Coe attempt the 400?

If the answer is "not very often," it's eminently possible that his true speed was much faster than 46.8 suggests.

Hey I just need to apologise for the poster named GreatDane. He is what used to be referred to back in the day as a retard

First someone has to break 1:42 again.

....

It possible but it will be by someone not yet competing, just like when Kevin Kiptum came along and redefine negative spilt marathons.

David Rudisha was our best bet and he trained himself to injury trying to improve on his 1:40.91. So its possible but it's an individual who we yet to see with a unique set of abilities we have yet to witness.

In a era where I'm shocked by a 1:42, I would be surprised if it is broken soon. I think we need another generation of runners. Rudisha was a Bolt level talent in the distance.

I think the 43 in the 400m will be broken first.

It may be possible, but think of the split it would require, it would likely require a 49.0-50.9 split. That is insane just to type. It may happen at some point in the future, but it would require an athletic freak with extreme speed and endurance. However as technology (shoes, surfaces, lights, etc.) and training styles improve it could happen. That all said, it would need the ideal athlete, with the ideal coach, in the ideal situation. So it likely wont happen for a while.

Wayde van Niekirk pre-injury could have done it. The strength he showed in that Rio 400 was phenomenal. Not hard to fathom with a bit of training he could have run 49 then 50 in an 800.

Similarly, can you imagine telling the other athletes, coaches, and parents they have to sit through boys and girls heats of the 3200 and/or 5000 and/or steeple? I wouldn't have minded a little more rest between my events, but man that'd be tough.

Wayde did indeed show phenomenal strength, but no. He's run an 800, in 1:57. With training he could get that down to 1:45 maybe, but 1:39 is ridiculous.

This argument of sprinters moving up is always ridiculous. Michael Johnson couldn't have done it either.

The exact same logic was applied to Warriner back in his era - and it's purely based on the logic that neither him or Wayde had bigger, more traditional "sprinter" builds.

"But if these guys can run 43 second for 400m they should be able to "jog" a 400 in 48 and easily come home in a 51 right?"

Yeah, it doesn't work like this. 100 seconds for 800m I don't want to say is impossible, but I'd be surprised if I saw it in my lifetime.

What does that tell you when the world low time from from 2023 is slower than the world record from 45 years ago? This even is not going in the right direction.

You’re focusing on one half of the equation. 100% of the time, a sub-44 guy is not to be as good in the 800m. Rudisha was an absolute freak in combining both 400 speed and 800 strength. I don’t know if there will ever be another like him.