Considering the WR is at 1:40.91 it's definitely possible, but when do you guys think it will happen and who's the current guy with the best chance?
It will not happen soon, non of the current guys is good enough.
But for sure this can change.
When a slim guy in ordinary Nike spikes can run away from the field 45 years ago and run 1:42.33, than it's just astonishing that the world lead last year was 1:42.80.
Something must have gone eminentely wrong in this event in the last years.
But other events have progressed and I expect several guys sub 1:40 within the next 10 years.
No one current has any chance at it. There is a lot of misunderstanding about the 800 in the United States because of the 800 being included as a distance event at the HS level. It is a long sprint and speed is by far the most important part of the 800 at any level.
The first person to break 1:40 will be the first person to go 43.9 in the 400 and 3:29 in the 1500.
On a related note, I think part of the problem with 800m running is that most of the talented speed guys tend to be exceptional all round athletes, and therefore end up gaining notable amounts of weight / muscle mass to play other sports which comes with far more upside for them (both socially (through aesthetics and being dominant in skill sports) and athletically). And it begins EARLY - 14/15, if that.
As an example. I was the second best 800m runner in my county (in the UK) at 13/14, and I trained for it as my primary sport, going to one of the best athletic clubs in the country (which has seen multiple Olympic champions pass through).
One PE lesson at school we were put into groups to run the 800m. In the first group, the best all round athlete in my school year ran and easily beat everyone else. They recorded the times, then had the second group (which I was in) run. This lad told the PE teacher he wanted to run again, then proceeded to beat me easily. 2 minutes later he ran again, and won the third race.
He did this off incidental 'mileage' from sports training.
But already he was above optimal weight for 800m (just down to sheer muscle mass), and getting a lot of positive reinforcement for his looks and strength. Try sitting a kid like that down and saying "hey, you're talented at running. If you lose some muscle and quit all your fun team sports, then you could be a quality 800m runner'.
Considering the WR is at 1:40.91 it's definitely possible, but when do you guys think it will happen and who's the current guy with the best chance?
I think you need sub 44 400m speed to do it. Steven Gardiner might have as chance if he moved up.
Sebastian Coe ran 1:41.73 with a 400m PB of 46.87. This would suggest that someone with 45.8ish 400m speed could theoretically break 1:40 if they had similar speed endurance to Coe.
This post was edited 15 seconds after it was posted.
That could be- I just don't see anyone at this time being capable of doing it.
Sedjati looked strong yesterday but I don't think we will see a sub 1:42 this season. But the 1500m is getting stronger so I expect also many great talents in the 800m soon.
No chance anyone is breaking 1:40 anytime soon considering 1:42.80 was the best time in the world last year. 2.8 seconds over two laps is massive. This also seems like the one race where the super shoes don't help. You're not saving your legs with super shoes. You are blowing them up to kingdom come with 300 to go.
Never say never. But i agree. Seems maybe the least likely record to be broken soon, let alone sub 1:40, which almost a full second off? DR seemed almost perfection out there, seemed almost unfair with that stride.
I think you need sub 44 400m speed to do it. Steven Gardiner might have as chance if he moved up.
Sebastian Coe ran 1:41.73 with a 400m PB of 46.87. This would suggest that someone with 45.8ish 400m speed could theoretically break 1:40 if they had similar speed endurance to Coe.
I'm relatively new to the 800 - how often did Coe attempt the 400?
If the answer is "not very often," it's eminently possible that his true speed was much faster than 46.8 suggests.
Sebastian Coe ran 1:41.73 with a 400m PB of 46.87. This would suggest that someone with 45.8ish 400m speed could theoretically break 1:40 if they had similar speed endurance to Coe.
I'm relatively new to the 800 - how often did Coe attempt the 400?
If the answer is "not very often," it's eminently possible that his true speed was much faster than 46.8 suggests.
Hey I just need to apologise for the poster named GreatDane. He is what used to be referred to back in the day as a retard
Considering the WR is at 1:40.91 it's definitely possible, but when do you guys think it will happen and who's the current guy with the best chance?
....
It possible but it will be by someone not yet competing, just like when Kevin Kiptum came along and redefine negative spilt marathons.
David Rudisha was our best bet and he trained himself to injury trying to improve on his 1:40.91. So its possible but it's an individual who we yet to see with a unique set of abilities we have yet to witness.
In a era where I'm shocked by a 1:42, I would be surprised if it is broken soon. I think we need another generation of runners. Rudisha was a Bolt level talent in the distance.
It may be possible, but think of the split it would require, it would likely require a 49.0-50.9 split. That is insane just to type. It may happen at some point in the future, but it would require an athletic freak with extreme speed and endurance. However as technology (shoes, surfaces, lights, etc.) and training styles improve it could happen. That all said, it would need the ideal athlete, with the ideal coach, in the ideal situation. So it likely wont happen for a while.
Wayde van Niekirk pre-injury could have done it. The strength he showed in that Rio 400 was phenomenal. Not hard to fathom with a bit of training he could have run 49 then 50 in an 800.
I don't think they'll need a 3:29 as much as they will need a 3:29 1500, but 100% speed is the priority.
The reason why the 800 is treated like a distance race at the HS level is because, well, there's hardly any other distance events, at least in the US. The only other two are 1600 and 3200, so the 800 being considered "distance" balances it out
"The reason why the 800 is treated like a distance race at the HS level is because, well, there's hardly any other distance events, at least in the US. The only other two are 1600
This is true and it makes me sad. Wish US HS runners had more distance options - it also makes the battle for a team title very sprint-dominant.
It would be nice if more HS state meets had options like the 5k and 3k steeple, but thats pretty much the definition of a pipe dream. Can you imagine telling thousands of schools across the US that they need to build steeple pits?
Similarly, can you imagine telling the other athletes, coaches, and parents they have to sit through boys and girls heats of the 3200 and/or 5000 and/or steeple? I wouldn't have minded a little more rest between my events, but man that'd be tough.
Wayde van Niekirk pre-injury could have done it. The strength he showed in that Rio 400 was phenomenal. Not hard to fathom with a bit of training he could have run 49 then 50 in an 800.
Wayde did indeed show phenomenal strength, but no. He's run an 800, in 1:57. With training he could get that down to 1:45 maybe, but 1:39 is ridiculous.
This argument of sprinters moving up is always ridiculous. Michael Johnson couldn't have done it either.
Wayde van Niekirk pre-injury could have done it. The strength he showed in that Rio 400 was phenomenal. Not hard to fathom with a bit of training he could have run 49 then 50 in an 800.
Wayde did indeed show phenomenal strength, but no. He's run an 800, in 1:57. With training he could get that down to 1:45 maybe, but 1:39 is ridiculous.
This argument of sprinters moving up is always ridiculous. Michael Johnson couldn't have done it either.
The exact same logic was applied to Warriner back in his era - and it's purely based on the logic that neither him or Wayde had bigger, more traditional "sprinter" builds.
"But if these guys can run 43 second for 400m they should be able to "jog" a 400 in 48 and easily come home in a 51 right?"
Yeah, it doesn't work like this. 100 seconds for 800m I don't want to say is impossible, but I'd be surprised if I saw it in my lifetime.
No chance anyone is breaking 1:40 anytime soon considering 1:42.80 was the best time in the world last year. 2.8 seconds over two laps is massive. This also seems like the one race where the super shoes don't help. You're not saving your legs with super shoes. You are blowing them up to kingdom come with 300 to go.
2.8 seconds?
1:42.33 45 years ago. For sure it easily could be achieved. This doesn't mean it soon will be achieved. The 800m record currently is the "weakest" from 800 to 10000.
What does that tell you when the world low time from from 2023 is slower than the world record from 45 years ago? This even is not going in the right direction.
Maybe not Gardiner, but I definitely agree you'd need some absurd wheels to pull it off. Sub 44 ideally, 44.2 at the absolute minimum
You’re focusing on one half of the equation. 100% of the time, a sub-44 guy is not to be as good in the 800m. Rudisha was an absolute freak in combining both 400 speed and 800 strength. I don’t know if there will ever be another like him.