Gourley, Beamish, Centro, Myers at the very least would go towards the back. And it would string out enough that it’s likely Garcia/Kipsang would be dropped fairly quickly based on what we’ve seen. So to me it will not be a treacherous field if they go out in 56 with the pacer.
Garcia is gonna run under 3:50 at least.
And while I think the field size is perfectly fine, I think there's a pretty good chance it'll be pretty bunched up. Was it Oslo last year where like 8 guys all ran 3:29? Wherever Nuguse ran 3:29.02.
Also idk why so many people in this thread thread are down on Teare. He's in the shape of his life, he just ran 12:54 with a solid kick, and ran a 3:32.1 pb FTW a month ago (in April!). Plus he's back with Ben Thomas. I think Nuguse is the only American with a good shot of winning, but Teare being the 2nd American (and not far behind 1st) wouldn't surprise me at all. People seem to forget, but in Hocker's dream 2021 season, he crushed Nuguse and Kessler. Teare beat him every single time they raced a mile or 1500 though. Talent doesn't go away, it just takes some time off when you go to BTC.
And while I think the field size is perfectly fine, I think there's a pretty good chance it'll be pretty bunched up. Was it Oslo last year where like 8 guys all ran 3:29? Wherever Nuguse ran 3:29.02.
Also idk why so many people in this thread thread are down on Teare. He's in the shape of his life, he just ran 12:54 with a solid kick, and ran a 3:32.1 pb FTW a month ago (in April!). Plus he's back with Ben Thomas. I think Nuguse is the only American with a good shot of winning, but Teare being the 2nd American (and not far behind 1st) wouldn't surprise me at all. People seem to forget, but in Hocker's dream 2021 season, he crushed Nuguse and Kessler. Teare beat him every single time they raced a mile or 1500 though. Talent doesn't go away, it just takes some time off when you go to BTC.
We’ll see on Mario. Last year he did kinda put together Oslo out of nowhere. He did have a 3:51.7 mile where he went out in 1:53. This year, everything has been bad.
Feels like Centro asked out. It’s not a huge field (15). Going to 16 would be totally fine especially since there’re a few guys happy to run further back.
I do not think 16 is anywhere near fine
there is a reason they run 12 man finals
12 and a pacer.. maybe 13
16? lot of stuff can happen
16 fine in a race that is going to have pacers and get strung out... Too tight for a tactical race though
And while I think the field size is perfectly fine, I think there's a pretty good chance it'll be pretty bunched up. Was it Oslo last year where like 8 guys all ran 3:29? Wherever Nuguse ran 3:29.02.
Also idk why so many people in this thread thread are down on Teare. He's in the shape of his life, he just ran 12:54 with a solid kick, and ran a 3:32.1 pb FTW a month ago (in April!). Plus he's back with Ben Thomas. I think Nuguse is the only American with a good shot of winning, but Teare being the 2nd American (and not far behind 1st) wouldn't surprise me at all. People seem to forget, but in Hocker's dream 2021 season, he crushed Nuguse and Kessler. Teare beat him every single time they raced a mile or 1500 though. Talent doesn't go away, it just takes some time off when you go to BTC.
We’ll see on Mario. Last year he did kinda put together Oslo out of nowhere. He did have a 3:51.7 mile where he went out in 1:53. This year, everything has been bad.
Garcia always seems to do that. He doesn't seem to be a guy that can produce, or needs consistency. He could run 3:48 or 3:53 in this race and neither would suprise me
I’m honestly even more hyped now. Teare may not be in great shape but I think he very well may have a chance.
12:54 5k last race but isn’t in shape.. uh too bad he’s not in your shape then he would definitely have a chance…
Shape was the 3:54 Kejelcha and Kiplimo threw down in a 12:41 dead heat in Oslo. I couldn't care less about a 3:50/12:54 in separate races in different years even.
This isn't a huge shock. As Jonathan Gault pointed out on the podcast, this race would be 3 weeks in a row for the 34-year-old.
That being said, the Road to Paris joke is going to be nerve wracking at the Trials If Centro wants to move up into the top 45, he ironically of all people needs to make sure the final ins't tactical. Imagine if he won the Olympic Trials in 3:50 and then didn't get to to go the Olympics. He needs it to be under 3:40 to boost his ranking as he's like 47 and they take 45.
The fact that they don't have quota reallocation is really bad. I wonder if all of the UW milers will try to hammer the pace at NCAAs. A slow tactical win does nothing for them as well.
It's really a shame you can't add your place points in even if it's a tactical race.
The Trials will 100% be under 3:40. Nuguse can't let it go slow. If the Heps was won in like 3:43 off not that fast an initial pace, the Olympic Trials will be sub 3:40 with Nuguse in the race unless there are like 20mph winds or something crazy.
So how fast does Centro need the Trials to get the points?
The Trials will 100% be under 3:40. Nuguse can't let it go slow.
This has been stated so many times that it’s almost become an established truth, but I think his finishing speed is being unfairly discredited. Can you point me to a slow race where a fit (not Spring 2022 returning from injury) Nuguse gets blown away when the kicking starts? I can’t remember seeing that. At WIC this year he and Kerr both closed in 25.2–it was superior positioning that gave Kerr the advantage. We’ve also seen him close in 25.9 in a 3:47 mile; in a 3:40 1500 I think he could close in 51-flat, maybe even 50.xx, which is excellent.
Nuguse said two years ago that he thought he could run 46.x in the 400.
Yared Fanboy (not Rojo)09/18/2021 11:31am EDT4 years ago
Is that unreasonable for me to think he can't run that fast? I doubt Hocker could even run 46. Listen to his answer when asked what he could run in an open 400m: What would be a reasonable answer for Yared and also for Hocker...
It took 3 posts for some LetsRunner to say that no, Nuguse couldn’t even break 50: hilarious. I’m not saying he could run 46.xx in an open 400, but this is definitely not a guy claiming he could never break 50 a la Nordas, it’s a guy who knows he has wheels.
Notre Dame's Yared Nuguse made a late push to take the 1500-meter crown in thrilling fashion at 2019 NCAA championships.Subscribe to the NCAA Championship Yo...
^The week he turned 20, look who has the extra gear in the last 50m.
Anyway, this is kind of a waste of an argument, because Nuguse still increases his chances of making the team by making it an honest pace, so it’s likely he’ll do that. I think he’d make the team regardless of what the pace is in the first K, though.
The Trials will 100% be under 3:40. Nuguse can't let it go slow.
This has been stated so many times that it’s almost become an established truth, but I think his finishing speed is being unfairly discredited. Can you point me to a slow race where a fit (not Spring 2022 returning from injury) Nuguse gets blown away when the kicking starts? I can’t remember seeing that. At WIC this year he and Kerr both closed in 25.2–it was superior positioning that gave Kerr the advantage. We’ve also seen him close in 25.9 in a 3:47 mile; in a 3:40 1500 I think he could close in 51-flat, maybe even 50.xx, which is excellent.
Nuguse said two years ago that he thought he could run 46.x in the 400.
It took 3 posts for some LetsRunner to say that no, Nuguse couldn’t even break 50: hilarious. I’m not saying he could run 46.xx in an open 400, but this is definitely not a guy claiming he could never break 50 a la Nordas, it’s a guy who knows he has wheels.
^The week he turned 20, look who has the extra gear in the last 50m.
Anyway, this is kind of a waste of an argument, because Nuguse still increases his chances of making the team by making it an honest pace, so it’s likely he’ll do that. I think he’d make the team regardless of what the pace is in the first K, though.
Yeah Nuguse I think is a plenty good finisher/closer. He's challenged as a tactical/pack runner before the kick starts though. Stride is kinda gangly and long, not a ton of shiftiness or ability to shoot the gap in tight spaces. If the race is slow and he's not leading I bet he will end up running either tons of extra distance on the outside. Or he'd stay on the rail and get shuffled back a lot and have to waste lots of energy to get back to the front. Kinda like Kiprop though he races more intelligently. His fitness advantage is good enough to maybe get away with that, but being at the head of the field and controlling things seems to be a safer move.
This post was edited 30 seconds after it was posted.
Thinking just the opposite lol. He’s in the shape of his life it seems but will have no chance in this race
No chance to what? His chances of winning outright are close to zero, but his chance of a PR or sub-3:50 is probably over 50%.
I meant no chance to win. I’m guessing he will run well and probably pr but I don’t think he is taking down 2 3:43 guys (1 being the reigning Olympic champion), plus the last 3 world champions and a host of others. Not meant to be a huge knock on him this is just an epic field.
12:54 5k last race but isn’t in shape.. uh too bad he’s not in your shape then he would definitely have a chance…
Shape was the 3:54 Kejelcha and Kiplimo threw down in a 12:41 dead heat in Oslo. I couldn't care less about a 3:50/12:54 in separate races in different years even.
Feels like Centro asked out. It’s not a huge field (15). Going to 16 would be totally fine especially since there’re a few guys happy to run further back.
I do not think 16 is anywhere near fine
there is a reason they run 12 man finals
12 and a pacer.. maybe 13
16? lot of stuff can happen
Yeah, but a final is a strategic race. A paced race like this should be strung out. I think more can go wrong in a 12 man final than a 16 man fast paced race.
centro i think, with a kind of baseline established where he's at, may be best served to do a threshold / race speed block, instead of backing off for half a week, to perform well,
if you don't back off for half a week, and bring a B game, the results may be demoralizing, in that eat you alive field.
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