Wes Ferguson the ultimate dark horse? Has shown he can go next level when there's sufficient competition. Ran 1:45 this year and 1:45 at altitude last year.
If Kessler doesn't qualify for the 1500 I think he could have a chance in the 800. The same could possibly be true for Sahlman as well. The milers would probably recover from the two qualifying rounds a little better than some of the pure 800 runners.
How would the milers recover better when they would already have the 1500 rounds in their legs? It makes no sense.
The 800 guys would be fresh and running their specialty event. Kessler and Sahlman would be tired and running their non-specialty event. Picking them to make the team is extremely disrespectful to our 800 specialists.
A lot of people are on here predicting Sumner, even more saying Brazier, who has been out for much longer. Important to make the distinction between who you want to be at worlds/who is the most talented to get a medal for the US at worlds, and who is actually gonna get top 3 in Eugene. I think Sumner and Brazier are in the former category. Amazing world-beating 800m talent, but realistically have not proven that they're ready or even indicated that they plan to race the trials(?). I am rooting for them and would LOVE to be proven wrong.
Whitmarsh has a great 1:44 mark but how will he do with the rounds and different tactics? Jewett and Miller are strong but possibly a little one-dimensional in race tactics to be considered a lock.
Murphy... I have no idea. He could be doing that thing where he races horribly before the trials, then kicks for a 1:43 and then does nothing the rest of the summer. Definitely not a lock.
Sahlman and Kessler: seems like they'll go for the 800m if they don't make the 1500m. All those rounds is a tall order for two athletes that are still very young. But if they find themselves in a tactical 800m final they've got a chance.
Engels: Another person I really want to do well but don't think he has a strong chance. In interviews he seemed like he thinks he has a better chance of making the 800m team than the 1500m team. Maybe he thinks he's in better 800m shape or maybe he just thinks the field isn't as strong as the 1500m (which it isn't). He's having a lot of fun training and racing and hopefully that translates to the trials.
Hoppel can win any type of race and I think he is the only lock, male or female. Isaiah Harris is really consistent and though not a lock, probably the next most likely to take one of those three spots. Total crapshoot after that.
I think Murphy finds a way onto the team, even though he looked pretty terrible at LA. I predict a win for Hoppel, and an absolute war for the 2nd spot between Jewett, Harris, Sumner (if healthy) and Whitmarsh. Murphy enters the final straight behind all those guys but moves up through some carnage to steal the 3rd spot. Somebody gets pipped at the line in heartbreaking fashion.
Sumner had an injury of moderate severity earlier in the year so his coach shut down most of the season seeing that he has ran the standard, but is in the full swing of training right now, he is on strava too. He looks fit. I wouldn’t count him out.
If it’s the same case for Brazier (i’m coming to terms with the fact he may be finished, I really hope not but year after year of injury starts to look like a permanent issue) then I think it’ll be
Brazier, Hoppel, Sumner
If Brazier isn’t going to be healthy this season I think it’s gonna be
Hoppel, Jewett, Sumner
This post made me realize Brazier never made an Olympic team. Bombed out in 2016 after that NCAA record as a freshman. Won WCs in 2019, then was injured in 2021. He's gotta be the guy who was hurt most by pushing the Olympics back a year. He would've stomped that field, and he was in incredible shape that summer. Has he switched coaches yet? After being hurt for 3+ years?
Sumner had an injury of moderate severity earlier in the year so his coach shut down most of the season seeing that he has ran the standard, but is in the full swing of training right now, he is on strava too. He looks fit. I wouldn’t count him out.
If it’s the same case for Brazier (i’m coming to terms with the fact he may be finished, I really hope not but year after year of injury starts to look like a permanent issue) then I think it’ll be
Brazier, Hoppel, Sumner
If Brazier isn’t going to be healthy this season I think it’s gonna be
Hoppel, Jewett, Sumner
This post made me realize Brazier never made an Olympic team. Bombed out in 2016 after that NCAA record as a freshman. Won WCs in 2019, then was injured in 2021. He's gotta be the guy who was hurt most by pushing the Olympics back a year. He would've stomped that field, and he was in incredible shape that summer. Has he switched coaches yet? After being hurt for 3+ years?
Don’t hold me to this but I believe seeing a post by either him or Julian that they have parted ways as far as a coach/athlete relationship goes.
You’re spouting off meaningless trash talk just because Harris will never be a superstar talent and he doesn’t have aesthetically pleasing running form. He made U.S. outdoor teams in 2017 and 2023 and has been 4th, 4th, 6th, 6th in other U.S. championship qualifiers, and he just ran yet another 1:44-mid. Put some respect on the man.
Men: Bryce Hoppel seems like a lock. LA Grand Prix shows that Jewett potentially knows how to finish a race now and won't simply go out at suicide pace and get walked down, so I'll go with him as well. Maybe Brandon Miller for the last spot?
Women: Athing Mu seems like a lock even though we haven't seen her. I haven't been impressed with Rogers or Wilson - Rogers has a tendency to show up even with a bad pre-season so she might still make it, but Wilson has seemed out of sorts since last year. I expect Nia Akins or Sage Hurta-Klecker to take the last spot.
Hopel, Jewett, Whitmarsh
Theres always a collegiate in the mix in the 400/800 for some reason.