Is Jake Whightman going to be "the next guy" again?

My wish is irrelevant. The reality is harsh though. Kerr and Whightman are in great shape and there is Nuguse too. There might be a chance, that JI won't medal at all.

Potato Tim and his hamstring injury beg to differ

I think that was the answer (..........a CHANCE (not a RISK), that JI won´t medal at all).

Do you agree that your prediction is biased?

I wish ALL OF THEM to be in their best shape ever so we can get a historical great race in Paris.

Jakob won't be time-trialling in an Olympic final. No one does. But 1:44 says he can be out-kicked - again.

He did have a pacer. Cheruiyot.

He's gonna get eaten alive by 800/1500 types in Paris. Time to move up to the 'thon.

Just to be clear, a time trial features athletes running solo. Jakob wins fast paced races where everyone has the opportunity to lead or draft or whatever and he usually takes over the pace at around 1-2k.

I don't think the Olympics/WCs are the most exciting events because they're unpaced, I think they're the most exciting because the stakes are high and anything can happen. But even then, they're not even always the most exciting. Last year, my favorite 5k was Oslo. Kejelcha took the risk of running the last 2k in 4:54, with 60.18/60.09/60.07/58.42/55.75 splits off of sub-13 pace, with Kiplimo stalking him the whole way. They both lunged at the line, ran the same absurd time of 12:41.73, and Kejelcha was rewarded with the win. The race got exciting as soon as Kejelcha started pushing, and it got even more exciting the longer Kiplimo stayed attached, all the way until the race was over and we still didn't know who won. Compare that to the Worlds 5k, which, for me, got less and less exciting with every lap over 61s, which was every single one until the last 800m (58/52 splits), because guys like Aregawi, who closed a 12:40 5k with a 7:30 3k and a 55 last lap, were jogging alongside a 3:27 guy for 4600m.

I think the more important aspect of an exciting race is not knowing the outcome. Fast times are fun, but last year Jakob was so dominant that if he didn't run a historic performance, the race was kinda eh. Like I think he ran a 3:28 last year but I don't remember anything about it. His 3:27.1 was crazy, his 2 mile WR was crazy, and his 2k WR was crazy. I think the difference is that when he's going for a WR, no one knew if he'd get it, so it was exciting to watch him chase it and break it. If he's just running a 3:28 race, the outcome was kinda predetermined: He'd run not his best race and he'd win. Worlds was exciting because no one knew if he'd be able to win a championship 1500 from the front (he wasn't). Pre was exciting because even though it was a paced race, no one had achieved that double before, and no one knew if he could do it. It was even more exciting because Nuguse ran 3:43 to push Jakob all the way, then the next day Kejelcha made one of the fastest 3ks ever a race that was decided by .01. It was exciting because before the race, no one knew if Jakob would be able to win the double, and during the race, someone was so close that the win was always in question.

And you can apply the same analysis to upcoming races. I think the Pre mile is one of the most anticipated races of the year, even though it's going to be paced. Not only does it have maybe the best mile field ever assembled, with the last 2 Olympic champs, last 2 world outdoor champs, all 3 medalists from the 1500m at world indoors, last Commonwealth Games champ, 2 3:43 milers, and some more great guys, but quite literally anything could happen. We don't know how good Jingy, Kerr, or Nuguse are right now. Kerr and Nuguse had fantastic indoor seasons though, and Jingy claims he's in great shape. We know Wightman just ran 1:44.1, so near the best shape of his life, but it's been a long time since he raced a quality mile field. Beamish reached a new level indoors, has run 100mpw for the first time in his life, and could run anywhere from 3:45 to 3:55. Hoare just had a 3:34 win over the world leader, and after being a consistent 2nd place on the circuit in 2022 (a mantle taken up by his teammate in 2023), no one knows where he'll factor in. Centro has run 3:35 with some good finishing speed twice now, and while no one knows if he'll be in the 3:31 shape needed to contend at the Trials, he'll be going toe-to-toe with Nuguse, Hocker, and Kessler, so we'll get an idea of where he stacks up. Kessler ran 3:48i and just had a huge 800pb (he's definitely good for 1:44 low too). Hocker just ran sub-13, is probably in the best shape of his life coming off an 8:05i 2 mile and silver medal indoors.

The part that makes it so exciting is that anything could happen. Jakob, Nuguse, and Kerr could all realistically be first, last, or anywhere in between.

He doesn't. Don't project your own stupidity on him.

No, it doesn't feature athletes running solo. It is usually a paced race run for time.

While we are at it - who is Whightman? Jake Wightman wants to know.

I suggest you look in the mirror to see one.

I suggest you don't mock other people's typos when you also make them. Glad to prove you're a pompous hypocrite.

Neither you nor I can be in Jakob’s head all the time, and know what he means or feels. So we have to base our judgements on his sayings. F.ex that he stresses (in interviews) that his ideal race is a fast one, where tactics doesn’t matter, and where the best guy wins simply because he is the best runner (meaning not racer). So my conclusion is that Jakob participates in Oly / WC because he has to (because of prestige and so on) and because he likes to compete anyway… But that he regards the fast and honest races as the real ones, contrary to clown games..! (Or of course even better: A vision of turning a Olympic run into a solo time trail run - needs to be healthy, and in the same shape as in WC 2023 semis..).

False. Diamond League races are clown events.

When you have runners entered with no intentions of finishing the race (rabbits) it becomes gimmicky.

If Jakob can only when a gimmick is used, he’s not real racer.

Is this the level of debate you want: You calling me stupid without any reasoning, and me maybe doing the same back (without arguments at all)..?

Why do I think Jakob (at least partially) regards WC / Olympics as clown races? -Well, rewatch his 2023 WC 5000m win, especially his face afterwards. -See some joy there? Why not, he won? Isn’t that what it’s all about? No it isn’t, because without a dominant honest performance a race becomes a clown race. Jakob wants to win in a proper way! (His own words; dominant. And preferably fast). And I interpret this as one of his points is that running is that everything is about, not racing. A good runner is a good runner -not a one time hitter / racer.

I guess half of El Guerrouj’s WC wins were gimmicks and not real wins then since he was paced in them. If Jakob had someone every year pace him at the WC and he won in 3:26-3:27 every time, would those wins count? Do wightman and Kerrs wins not count since they were technically paced by Jakob? This logic is so dumb. The BEST runner is the one who wins the most consistently and runs the FASTEST. This excuse of “oh he is not the best racer” hides the fact that his competitors are just not as good as him in fitness. This is why I call distance championships clown events. The world leaders rarely win and when they do its just a cherry on top of their world record performances and winning streaks at the highest level meets in the world.

Exactly, that is the mindset of one of the best ever. He doesn’t really care about just winning (obviously he does but I am just going by what he said on interviews), He wants to win dominantly. Jakob wants it to be fast and hard because that truly shows who the best distance runner is. If he can do that, then that medal has even more meaning.