Keely Hodgkinson runs 51.61 400m pb in 1st race of 2024 in Italy

Mu can absolutely threaten the WR in the 800M, but she has to race. I am not a fan of her coach, but hopefully she will have a great season.

Is Mu still running?

Its a marginal improvement. She ran her pr last year with two rounds in her legs. It at least shows hers speed is at a good spot. I have little doubt in her going 1:55 again this year. But saying sub 1:55 is almost certain is a stretch. I want to see Keely in a 1500 though. I want to see if she could be faster than Muir.

Interesting battle in the 800, PBs below.

Athing Mu: 49.5/1:54.9/4:03
- Mu can probably improve that 1500m a bit (1-2s) as she ran it in a championship race.

Keely Hodgkinson: 51.6/1:55.1/4:30
-Hodgkinson's 800m is pretty ideal for her (one-off race, good pacing) as is the 400m now (though it is early season). 1500m can come way down, but how far it's hard to know

Mary Moraa: 50.3/1:56.03/-
-Moraa's 400m is probably on point as the altitude advantage might be offset by not a ton of competition, her 800m can definitely be better as she did it in a championship race running most of the race wide. 1500m I don't think we'll see her race

I don't believe too much in these trial times that comes under some optimal conditions (an example of Cole Hocker running 1:31 at the final of Tokyo, or the young Dutch miler that did some big improvements in Budapest).

The real criteria is the ability of the runner to repeat performances. Athing Mu was well supported from a young age but Mary Moraa is the real dark horse.

They are never in the game, so no problem

damn she looks good as ever in that pic.

Not true. Syd is actually racing this season. She already has recorded some good efforts a few weeks ago in the 200 & 100h and in April ran a leg of a 4x100 team at Mt Sac.

Hopefully she runs the 200 this upcoming weekend at the LA Grand Prix. Syd in Paris will be at the top of her game.

I don’t think they see it like that though. They are both competitive and driven and race a lot. But if at the end of their career it’s been Olympic silvers then that is better than most people. And at least they put themselves out there time and time again. They are not afraid to race and you can tell both absolutely love it.

They are a pleasure to watch and support. I’d get frustrated trying to support any athlete who didn’t race often and didn’t seem to enjoy it.

Jemma reekie has run 55.57/1:56.90/3:58.65

Interesting to note how different the top contenders strengths are

Well it's not happening so I guess we don't even need to go there. Jarmila K was the WR holder in the 400m at 47.99 - from blocks. Never really touched the 1500m so we don't know but it's kind of irrelevant because she did run 1.53.28 - the WR.

Mu's profile right now is 49.57, 1.54.97 and 4.03.44. Is the 400m really getting much better - especially now with an obvious shift to the 800/1500 side? (she didn't even clock an official 400 in 2023 and in 2022 ran 50.4). Let's give her the massive benefit of the doubt and say she can get to 49.0. But that is not enough to run in the low 1.53's so she is going to have to at the same time pull her 1500m time down into the 3.59/4.00 territory at a bare minimum.

Now we see the conundrum - improve your 400m speed (and 0.6 is a considerable chunk) and your 1500m endurance (enough to take 3+ seconds off a time which I think was a stunning performance for her to begin with) concurrently. Just don't see it happening. If Mu got down into the low 1.54's it would be awesome and let's be honest that is not a slight on her because it would 100% be the WR as our only 2 times under 1.54 are absolutely PED aided and Semenya and Jelimo were by todays precedent not going to be eligible to compete in the womens category (Jelimo I think as well on some special vitamins).

Back to Keeley H - good time and good start to the season but I really believe that if she wants to maximize her talent, that 1500m needs to dramatically improve. Clearly she sees herself as a pure 400/800m runner but we now know how important the over-distances are for any MD event - a 56.0 first lap for her now is no problem as a 51.5 runner - but can she follow that up with a 58.5 is her challenge and that strength lies in the 1500m and not in the 400.

Have to wonder if this is the last year of Keely as the golden girl of British middle distance running. The Brits love their wunderkinds and Phoebe Gill seems like the next one.

Femke and Keely are two of my favs as well. Add natalia kaczmarek as my fav 400m runner. I guess I just love silver medalists.

Those times illustrate what a generational talent Mu is. The only other athlete to do anything similar in women's competition is the xy athlete, Caster Semenya, who ran 4 flat. Mu can break 4, given how she competed with Hiltz (3:59.61) and Wiley (3:59.17 last year) at nationals. Based on their 400 times and close competition in the 800m, you'd think that Hodgkinson would be a mid-3:50s runner but then she hasn't run the 1500m since that 4:30 at age 15 seven years ago in 2017. At the time, her 800m pr was 2:06.85. At 22, she still can drop further at every event but it's hard to see a path to victory against Mu, who will also be 22 next month, if she is locked in like she was at the end of last year. Moraa will be 24 for the Olympics this year. Those three look to dominate the sport for another Olympic cycle.

I’ve always thought Jelimo was DSD. Glad to get more confirmation

Has she raced Sydney? Don't act like Bol is winning because she's the best. She's lucky Sydney chose a different event.

Keely rarely runs the 1500m. Jemma often focuses on it and I think it’s her better distance.

I wonder if Keely is just a pure 800m runner. She does have a good kick and paces it to perfection. I don’t think she needs to go there with the 1500m. I think she probably should do a bit more 400m work to be competitive against Moraa and Mu. That finishing 100m is where it will be won and lost. The only way they will beat Moraa is by not letting her do her fartlek slowing everyone down then kicking for the finish with 100 to go.

Moraa has never run the 800m at a consistent (compared to the others) pace. Her PB is slower. Yet you’d kind of put money on her wouldn’t you? The others need to focus on her tactics and how to get in front of her and stay there.

Femke has 11 golds and 4 silvers

I mean not much difference to Mutola if we are also really honest. There was just such little awareness of this situation back in that era and both Mutola and Jelimo managed good careers (in the case of Mutola a GREAT career including what, 12 successive wins in Zurich (!!!)) also winning multiple Olympic medals including a gold, and escaped any official scrutiny. That's where I guess you can sympathize with Semenya as she ultimately became the poster-child for the crackdown on DSD competitors in the women's category - though she didn't help her case with some of the stuff like the bicep flexes and Hulk Hogan style "Hulking up" routines.