Jakob ran 1:46 when he was in 3:28/7:27 shape. Nico’s only a second slower than that with probably pretty similar 3k/5k fitness to 2020 Jakob.
Colin has only run 3:33/7:48 this year and is a second faster than Ingebrigsten’s PR over 800m. When he gets into sub 7:30 3k shape he’ll be a big threat to Jakob
Mike Smith is really good at turning high level recruits into international contenders
False. He ran 3:28.6 in Monaco six weeks later with Tim as de facto pacer. He ran 1:46.44 in a small Norwegian meet to win while in closer to 4:50 shape (he ran that mark 19 days earlier). 4:50 for Jakob is around 3:31 shape. The 800 generally requires a few cracks at it. This was Sahlman 4th 800m this year. Jakob all-out in an 800 is somewhere closer to 1:45 flat than his current PB in my estimation.
Exactly.
I think the funniest thing to come out of those races with respect to Jakob is how some people will still contend that Jakob is only a 1.46 800m guy with "possibly" high 1.45 "at best" credentials. Nico Young just ran 1.47.5 and Sahlman 1.45.6 - if you don't think Jakob is at least a half second faster over 800m than Colin Sahlman, you are delusional.
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.
You believe that Nico can run a 7:54 2-mile? Someone that was out kicked by a 5/10K guy, while running a 12:57, is not yet, a threat to Jakob.
It’s exciting to see Young and Sahlman running so well, but maybe they should make an Olympic team, before we start comparing them to the very best.
Sure. But the question with both of them is not what they have done, but what will they do. Is CS going to drop a 3:30 in June? Is young a 3:31/12:45 guy? Both are aggressive but possible times. Of course they might have also peaked for the year. And for championship running it is never really clear what the skill is in terms of running 13:30 pace for 4k and then closing in 2:20 between speed&strength.
I give more weight to “have done” and Jakob still has a big edge in that department.
After 4K at 13:30 pace, a 7:54 2-miler is going to hit warp speed over the last 10000m.
While I don't think Jakob is truly a 1:46 guy if he were to really make multiple attempts to run his best, I don't think he'd be much faster. I'm thinking lower 1:45.3x-1:44.9x MAYBE. I don't think 800 times really predict mile times that well anyways, they're much different events than people seem to think.
Colin's result is more about showing he is world class, and if he can continue to develop, will be a medal threat - NOT that he is somehow on Jakob's level because he ran a second faster than Jakob's PR in an 800.
Sure. But the question with both of them is not what they have done, but what will they do. Is CS going to drop a 3:30 in June? Is young a 3:31/12:45 guy? Both are aggressive but possible times. Of course they might have also peaked for the year. And for championship running it is never really clear what the skill is in terms of running 13:30 pace for 4k and then closing in 2:20 between speed&strength.
I give more weight to “have done” and Jakob still has a big edge in that department.
After 4K at 13:30 pace, a 7:54 2-miler is going to hit warp speed over the last 10000m.
And is warp going to be faster or slower than a guy who ran 1:47 while probably training to be a 5k/10k guy?
And yeah there is something to be said for already being there but have the fun of track is thinking about potential. If Young and JI hit the bell in 12:00, I am betting on JI. But a 1:47/26:50 guy would be one who had a shot.
And if Jakob is off even a hair from his injury, all these events become wide open. And ignoring the international level, picking up another couple US runners who are threats to make the team adds some fun to the trials..
I give more weight to “have done” and Jakob still has a big edge in that department.
After 4K at 13:30 pace, a 7:54 2-miler is going to hit warp speed over the last 10000m.
And is warp going to be faster or slower than a guy who ran 1:47 while probably training to be a 5k/10k guy?
And yeah there is something to be said for already being there but have the fun of track is thinking about potential. If Young and JI hit the bell in 12:00, I am betting on JI. But a 1:47/26:50 guy would be one who had a shot.
And if Jakob is off even a hair from his injury, all these events become wide open. And ignoring the international level, picking up another couple US runners who are threats to make the team adds some fun to the trials..
Jakob is the best in the world at 12:00, with a lap to go. In his 12:57, Young actually did go through 4600m in 12:00, so he would be about 5 seconds short in that scenario against Jakob. If Young does have the necessary level of talent to challenge Jakob in a 5000m, it’s going to take a few more years to get there.
This post was edited 17 minutes after it was posted.
People keep talking about 800 times in a speed conversation, as if its relevant.
The 800 is about strength. Yeah you have to be fast, but Arop is all strength. He isn't shifting gears much. He's grinding them in to paste with his strength. No one is running sub 50 in the last lap.
The 1500 is about the kick. Miruts Yifter used to kick like and SOB. sub 50 is not uncommon.
People keep talking about 800 times in a speed conversation, as if its relevant.
The 800 is about strength. Yeah you have to be fast, but Arop is all strength. He isn't shifting gears much. He's grinding them in to paste with his strength. No one is running sub 50 in the last lap.
The 1500 is about the kick. Miruts Yifter used to kick like and SOB. sub 50 is not uncommon.
Well, you're clearly not an 800 runner. The 800 is definitely about speed.
Jakob ran 1:46 when he was in 3:28/7:27 shape. Nico’s only a second slower than that with probably pretty similar 3k/5k fitness to 2020 Jakob.
Colin has only run 3:33/7:48 this year and is a second faster than Ingebrigsten’s PR over 800m. When he gets into sub 7:30 3k shape he’ll be a big threat to Jakob
Mike Smith is really good at turning high level recruits into international contenders
He's a 1:45/3:33 runner. That would mean 7:40 at his absolute best. And 10 seconds is a LONG time to go at that level. He's 0.37 ahead in the 800m and 6.82 back in the 1500m. Even 1:45.00 and 7:30.00 would mean just 3:30 IMO.
Here's what the calculator says: 400 seems accurate and I'd discount everything above 5000.
He's a 1:45/3:33 runner. That would mean 7:40 at his absolute best. And 10 seconds is a LONG time to go at that level. He's 0.37 ahead in the 800m and 6.82 back in the 1500m. Even 1:45.00 and 7:30.00 would mean just 3:30 IMO.
Here's what the calculator says: 400 seems accurate and I'd discount everything above 5000.
Jakob ran 1:46 when he was in 3:28/7:27 shape. Nico’s only a second slower than that with probably pretty similar 3k/5k fitness to 2020 Jakob.
Colin has only run 3:33/7:48 this year and is a second faster than Ingebrigsten’s PR over 800m. When he gets into sub 7:30 3k shape he’ll be a big threat to Jakob
Mike Smith is really good at turning high level recruits into international contenders
Seriously man come on. You think Jakob can only run 1:46? He has probably never run one seriously. But he can run 3.75 back to back 400m in 55 seconds. No way Colin or Nico would be close to that
"I have a friend Jeremey Warnier...maybe you've heard of him...with his speed, big things coming when he moves up to the 800. First lap will feel like JOGGING for him"
Seriously people. Come on. Respect jumps in distance & the skill of being a REALLY good miler. And real times at 1500/mile. Like Jakob's. And not the hypotheticals.
Jakob ran 1:46 when he was in 3:28/7:27 shape. Nico’s only a second slower than that with probably pretty similar 3k/5k fitness to 2020 Jakob.
Colin has only run 3:33/7:48 this year and is a second faster than Ingebrigsten’s PR over 800m. When he gets into sub 7:30 3k shape he’ll be a big threat to Jakob
Mike Smith is really good at turning high level recruits into international contenders
No, it means Jakob’s 800m PR is more than a little soft.
Amazing that you got so many upvotes for such a dogmatic statement.
Colin Sahlman is good but I say he never gets within 3 seconds of Jakobs 1500m PR ever
He never runs 3:30.14 or faster? Even with 1:45 speed and 3:33.96 as a 20 year old? And training under one of the best coaches in the world?
Well after Jakob runs 3:25. Cs needs to run a 3:28😁3:30.14 is still really fast and lot of 20 year olds never run 3.5s faster. I am hopefully that CS takes the next steps and becomes a world class sub 3:30 guy. But who know’s maybe after 18 months of the best coaching out there he is almost peaked out
2) Having said that, his speed is the thing that holds him back from being the greatest 1500/mile runner of all time, not his strength. I have no clue if he is just limited on that front or his training hasn't stressed it enough.
Why do you think his speed is what holds him back? He consistently runs 53s or faster for the final 400 in championships.
What holds him back in championships is that he leads too early. What holds him back from getting the 1500/mile WR is literally nothing but opportunity and a little more time. He's run 3:43 and is only 23 years old in a time when world class runners can run their best at 25-27 years old.
Everyone just needs to relax. Jakob is not slow lmao. I think we forget that he's still basically a kid.
He leads early because he is slow. That’s his best chance to wins. If he lets the race be run like Centro’s year, he likely finished 10th place or so.
Why do you think his speed is what holds him back? He consistently runs 53s or faster for the final 400 in championships.
What holds him back in championships is that he leads too early. What holds him back from getting the 1500/mile WR is literally nothing but opportunity and a little more time. He's run 3:43 and is only 23 years old in a time when world class runners can run their best at 25-27 years old.
Everyone just needs to relax. Jakob is not slow lmao. I think we forget that he's still basically a kid.
He leads early because he is slow. That’s his best chance to wins. If he lets the race be run like Centro’s year, he likely finished 10th place or so.
The risk that we will see a championship slower than 3.50 again is zero, whether he takes the lead early or not.
Why do you think his speed is what holds him back? He consistently runs 53s or faster for the final 400 in championships.
What holds him back in championships is that he leads too early. What holds him back from getting the 1500/mile WR is literally nothing but opportunity and a little more time. He's run 3:43 and is only 23 years old in a time when world class runners can run their best at 25-27 years old.
Everyone just needs to relax. Jakob is not slow lmao. I think we forget that he's still basically a kid.
He leads early because he is slow. That’s his best chance to wins. If he lets the race be run like Centro’s year, he likely finished 10th place or so.