Australia has a lot of super fast juniors coming through,and unlike in the past,they seem to be hanging onto them,and not over training them.I imagine we'll be seeing a lot more of the aussies in years to come,with the brisbane olympics in 2032.
Brisbane 2032 might help some to remain in the sport that would otherwise be lost to team sports.
I will give you 20 to 1 that she doesn’t. Minimum stake $1,000
I can't afford $1000 but would happily put $100 on it. The girl has IT and a medal in Paris will be the beginning of a storied career on the biggest stage.
With the number of women going sub 2:00 I wouldn't put my money on anyone winning a medal. The semi's are going to be crazy in Paris.
Likewise for the men. The event has been in the doldrums for a couple years but the depth is crazy.
I will give you 20 to 1 that she doesn’t. Minimum stake $1,000
I can't afford $1000 but would happily put $100 on it. The girl has IT and a medal in Paris will be the beginning of a storied career on the biggest stage.
You know how many Aussie youths have come and gone? Ran great times then fall off the face of earth?
I will give you 20 to 1 that she doesn’t. Minimum stake $1,000
Yeah I'd have to say unlikely. But she could easily run 1,58-low and final, which would be awesome, as a junior.
Here are the facts
1. She has won every single race she has entered in the 800m and 1500m this year and this is the first year she has ever entered races recognized by world athletics.
2. She has yet to run internationally. She has only run in Australia.
3. This is her progression against Australian runners this year (she only ran highschool comps before this year)
Feb 1:59.8 win
March 1:58.8 win
April 1:58.4 win
This is her progression in the 1500m
Feb 4:04.45 win
April 4:02.96 win by over 10 seconds
I'm not saying she is likely to medal. She definitely has no experience needing to put rounds of 2:00 and 1:58 together just to make a final, so that is an unknown.
I'd say we'd expect 1:58 low to 1:57 high if we got her in an international field right now. I also think this indicates she is in sub 4:00 shape. Making the final would indeed be a good result. If she continues this progression though, her PB will be in the 1:57s by the end of the year. That I'd definitely bet on.
1. She has won every single race she has entered in the 800m and 1500m this year and this is the first year she has ever entered races recognized by world athletics.
2. She has yet to run internationally. She has only run in Australia.
3. This is her progression against Australian runners this year (she only ran highschool comps before this year)
Feb 1:59.8 win
March 1:58.8 win
April 1:58.4 win
This is her progression in the 1500m
Feb 4:04.45 win
April 4:02.96 win by over 10 seconds
I'm not saying she is likely to medal. She definitely has no experience needing to put rounds of 2:00 and 1:58 together just to make a final, so that is an unknown.
I'd say we'd expect 1:58 low to 1:57 high if we got her in an international field right now. I also think this indicates she is in sub 4:00 shape. Making the final would indeed be a good result. If she continues this progression though, her PB will be in the 1:57s by the end of the year. That I'd definitely bet on.
She ran at the World Junior Championships in 2022 but don’t let the truth get in the way of your story
The women's 800 is becoming like wide receiver in American football. The junior ranks are producing more elite talent than the top league can handle.
Every year new names will be an instant factor, like Duguma this year. Mary Moraa's 18 year old sister has a ways to go but she has already dropped from 2:11 to 2:03 in less than a year.
1. She has won every single race she has entered in the 800m and 1500m this year and this is the first year she has ever entered races recognized by world athletics.
2. She has yet to run internationally. She has only run in Australia.
3. This is her progression against Australian runners this year (she only ran highschool comps before this year)
Feb 1:59.8 win
March 1:58.8 win
April 1:58.4 win
This is her progression in the 1500m
Feb 4:04.45 win
April 4:02.96 win by over 10 seconds
I'm not saying she is likely to medal. She definitely has no experience needing to put rounds of 2:00 and 1:58 together just to make a final, so that is an unknown.
I'd say we'd expect 1:58 low to 1:57 high if we got her in an international field right now. I also think this indicates she is in sub 4:00 shape. Making the final would indeed be a good result. If she continues this progression though, her PB will be in the 1:57s by the end of the year. That I'd definitely bet on.
She ran at the World Junior Championships in 2022 but don’t let the truth get in the way of your story
Appologies, I misread her world athletics profile (was looking at 2024). Yes, back when she was a ~2:02 800m runner and ~4:10 1500m runner a couple of years ago, in high school, she competed internationally twice.
But she still hasn't competed internationally since running these elite level marks (1:58.4 and 4:02), so my point still stands. She hasn't had the best competition while in this shape yet. She hasn't lost a single race this year, out of 5.
Australia is pretty strong it the womens 800 with Caldwell, Bisset and Oboya, but it is still not the same as what is on the international stage. There is lots of room in that progression to dip ito the 1:57s this year. But as I said though, an olympic medal is still pretty unlikely. It will take a lot more than a 1:57 high to get one.
I think if a 2:02 high school girl entered NCAA and as a freshman ran a 1:58.4, americans would be pretty psyched about that. I mean Mu ran the collegiate record of 1:57.7 before going on to further greatness that year at the olympic trials. Hollingsworth ran her 1:58.4 at the same time of the season as Mu was at 1:57.7.
Obviously, Hollingsworth is no where near Mu (doubt she can run a 400m in much under 53), but I still think people are discounting her a bit too much in this thread, and I totally understand all the hype. It will be fun to see what she can do with international competition.
I think if a 2:02 high school girl entered NCAA and as a freshman ran a 1:58.4, americans would be pretty psyched about that. I mean Mu ran the collegiate record of 1:57.7 before going on to further greatness that year at the olympic trials. Hollingsworth ran her 1:58.4 at the same time of the season as Mu was at 1:57.7.
Obviously, Hollingsworth is no where near Mu (doubt she can run a 400m in much under 53), but I still think people are discounting her a bit too much in this thread, and I totally understand all the hype. It will be fun to see what she can do with international competition.
Yes it’s the “same time” in a literal sense, but in Australia this is the end of their track season. Mu ran her 1:57.7 in her second outdoor race after a fun run at 1500. So it’s not really comparable.
I think if a 2:02 high school girl entered NCAA and as a freshman ran a 1:58.4, americans would be pretty psyched about that. I mean Mu ran the collegiate record of 1:57.7 before going on to further greatness that year at the olympic trials. Hollingsworth ran her 1:58.4 at the same time of the season as Mu was at 1:57.7.
Obviously, Hollingsworth is no where near Mu (doubt she can run a 400m in much under 53), but I still think people are discounting her a bit too much in this thread, and I totally understand all the hype. It will be fun to see what she can do with international competition.
Yes it’s the “same time” in a literal sense, but in Australia this is the end of their track season. Mu ran her 1:57.7 in her second outdoor race after a fun run at 1500. So it’s not really comparable.
While true thats a bit misleading. Mu ran a full indoor season with actually more races than Hollingsworth. This included indoor 400m, 600m and 800m and several 4x400s. While your statement is true, I think its a bit of a mischaracterisation to totally ignore the indoor season. She was well raced. I'm not trying to say they are comparable, but to think she isn't capable of cutting off 0.4 seconds is just kind of strange.
Sure its at the end of the Australian season, but its not like she's been racing a ton. 5 races in 2024 is not that many, and there is room for another training cylce before the olympics. Its not a given she'll PB, but a 0.4 second PB would not be some kind of miracle like some people in this thread are suggesting. A 1:57.X is very realistic this year.
I think if a 2:02 high school girl entered NCAA and as a freshman ran a 1:58.4, americans would be pretty psyched about that. I mean Mu ran the collegiate record of 1:57.7 before going on to further greatness that year at the olympic trials. Hollingsworth ran her 1:58.4 at the same time of the season as Mu was at 1:57.7.
Obviously, Hollingsworth is no where near Mu (doubt she can run a 400m in much under 53), but I still think people are discounting her a bit too much in this thread, and I totally understand all the hype. It will be fun to see what she can do with international competition.
Yes it’s the “same time” in a literal sense, but in Australia this is the end of their track season. Mu ran her 1:57.7 in her second outdoor race after a fun run at 1500. So it’s not really comparable.
Are you just going to act like the indoor season doesn't exist? In 2021 Mu had run more races by this time of the season than Hollingsworth.