WU20runner wrote:
That’s crazy, that event would literally be made for Jakob. The steeple was his best event by far when he was still running it, he ran an 8:26 steeple at 16 without specific training when his 5000m best was only 13:35. He would certainly break 8 minutes now without even training specifically for it.
Beamish is a very good runner but will he ever break 8 in the steeplechase?And we can all agree he’ll probably never run under 3:29/3:45, so I don’t see how he would even compete with Jakob in that event.
You’re saying he’s fast enough to stick with them based on his two mile pr, but does he have the mile speed for that ?
And him being a world indoor champion isn’t as relevant as you think it is because 1) the race would be outdoor 2) Wightman, Kerr, Nuguse and Jakob weren’t in the race, he probably wouldn’t win a final with those guys in the field.
I also don’t think anyone would run under 4 except maybe Jakob, and even for him that wouldn’t be an easy task. The smoothest steeple guys have a x1.06 (generally more like x1.07 if you look at the top guys) conversion between their 3000m and their steeplechase time, even someone like that would need 3:46 low mile speed to break 4 based on the same conversion factor.
Jake and Josh have proven you don't need to run under 3:29 to beat Jakob. And I'm not so sure Beamish will never break 8 in the steeple. Last year, in his first year in the event, he ran 8:13/8:13/8:14 with big kicks. I think everyone can see he's made a significant gain in fitness since then, as evidenced by his 8:05 2 mile (with a big kick). That's worth sub 7:30, and while Girma and El Bakkali have run 7:23, they don't have the kick that Beamish has.
After watching World Indoors, I'm comfortable saying he has the best kick in the world. He won comfortably after being like 8th with 150 to go on an indoor track. He's definitely got the mile speed to keep up with them at that pace. I'm leaning a bit more towards the Jakob side now, but I think he's got about as good of a chance as Beamish.