She is going to shock some people, she's in stellar shape and ready to enter the pain cave. She's always been better at cross than on the track and she wants this one badly, so expect her to gut out a top 20 finish, collapse at the finish line and cry for at least an hour afterwards, but it will be a job well done.
Allie O's "tune up race" on 16th March - 16:16 for 5K Kelati's tune up race on 16th March - 30:33 for 10000m
She is going to World Cross, in 16:16 shape....
^this is accurate. Even if the 5k was “low key” or a “tuneup”, she said the effort was hard and it was in AlphaFlys on a non hilly road course. I don’t know what place she gets, but predict 5:38 pace. I am a fan. Hope to be dead wrong.
She is going to shock some people, she's in stellar shape and ready to enter the pain cave. She's always been better at cross than on the track and she wants this one badly, so expect her to gut out a top 20 finish, collapse at the finish line and cry for at least an hour afterwards, but it will be a job well done.
Last year the winner went 33:48, and about 3:00 behind (33rd place) at 36:37 was Ostrander's former teammate Allie Buchalski, who is better and more consistent. Almost exactly 3:00 back, in 36:47 was Poppy Tank (36th place), who has a lot of experience in XC at the Euro Champs level. She also ran a 32:34 road PR in January. Ostrander just ran a 16:16 tuneup.
This year there will be two women who have run 28:46 and 28:57 on the road in the field. Even though I don't think those marks are legitimate, those are the facts. Last year a 14:06/29:01 runner was beaten to the line by Chebet, who is returning this year.
The road marks notwithstanding, it's reasonable to say the winner will be in 29:00-29:20 shape in ideal conditions on the track. Kelati just ran 30:33. It's not logical to think Ostrander is in BETTER THAN 32:00 shape, based on all that we know. Therefore, the 3:00 gap at 10k.
It will be a solid result for Ostrander to make it just within the top 40, about 3:00 behind the winner. If the field is deeper than recently, because of a better location, this will likely be a top-60 finish.
It's worth noting here, that I am a strong feminist. Meaning that I believe women should have the same rights and opportunities, in all things, all the time. Therefore, they get the same objective analysis leveled at a man from me. Those of you saying Ostrander is headed for a top-20 finish, either know nothing about WCCC or nothing about running, or both.
If there were a man who finished 5th at the XC Trials, ran a 14:35 road tuneup recently, had been running 4 times a week long-term, and produced a vlog about how devastating single training sessions are to him, I would guess he would finish around 170th place about 3:00 back.
The difference in speculated finish is due to the men's race being much deeper in quality. That's equal treatment. People saying she could finish top-20 are deluding themselves, because they want that to be the result. It will be a solid result if Kelati finishes top-20, Ostrander will be way behind that.
She is going to shock some people, she's in stellar shape and ready to enter the pain cave. She's always been better at cross than on the track and she wants this one badly, so expect her to gut out a top 20 finish, collapse at the finish line and cry for at least an hour afterwards, but it will be a job well done.
Last year the winner went 33:48, and about 3:00 behind (33rd place) at 36:37 was Ostrander's former teammate Allie Buchalski, who is better and more consistent. Almost exactly 3:00 back, in 36:47 was Poppy Tank (36th place), who has a lot of experience in XC at the Euro Champs level. She also ran a 32:34 road PR in January. Ostrander just ran a 16:16 tuneup.
This year there will be two women who have run 28:46 and 28:57 on the road in the field. Even though I don't think those marks are legitimate, those are the facts. Last year a 14:06/29:01 runner was beaten to the line by Chebet, who is returning this year.
The road marks notwithstanding, it's reasonable to say the winner will be in 29:00-29:20 shape in ideal conditions on the track. Kelati just ran 30:33. It's not logical to think Ostrander is in BETTER THAN 32:00 shape, based on all that we know. Therefore, the 3:00 gap at 10k.
It will be a solid result for Ostrander to make it just within the top 40, about 3:00 behind the winner. If the field is deeper than recently, because of a better location, this will likely be a top-60 finish.
It's worth noting here, that I am a strong feminist. Meaning that I believe women should have the same rights and opportunities, in all things, all the time. Therefore, they get the same objective analysis leveled at a man from me. Those of you saying Ostrander is headed for a top-20 finish, either know nothing about WCCC or nothing about running, or both.
If there were a man who finished 5th at the XC Trials, ran a 14:35 road tuneup recently, had been running 4 times a week long-term, and produced a vlog about how devastating single training sessions are to him, I would guess he would finish around 170th place about 3:00 back.
The difference in speculated finish is due to the men's race being much deeper in quality. That's equal treatment. People saying she could finish top-20 are deluding themselves, because they want that to be the result of Unique Sports. It will be a solid result if Kelati finishes top-20, Ostrander will be way behind that.
Allie O. (presumably referring to American long-distance runner Allie Ostrander) has demonstrated strong performances in cross country and distance running events in the past, but her success at World Cross Country Saturday would depend on her preparation and competition on the day of the race.
but moves up to 39th after the drug cheats get busted.
Why do so many people want to know results before something happens? Just watch and enjoy the race and you will find out. Do all you care about is a time and place or do you also enjoy watching the runners/tactics/etc?
I've seen Allie run since she was a HS freshman phenom
35th or top 35 would be a good day
letsrun trolls are weird
Looking at last year's results, I'd say 35th would be where I expect her to land (not great, not bad) and roughly where the 4th USA runner finished last year. I hope she does better, and would not be surprised at a result in the 20s. AllieO was 4th at USAs. She beat Izzo at USAs. Her ex-Beasts teammate Buchalski has a sub-15 track 5000, but almost 3 minutes back of winner seemed like an underperformance comparted to that at least.
Last year's US women were:
18 Kurgat
21 Kelati
31 Izzo
33 Buchalski
56 Lipari
Last year's women's race had 88 starters. The depth dropped off by the time half the field went by. By the 53-54, you had a 23 second gap between runners. I expect Allie to be in the top half. This year's field has a list of 107, but we know not all of them will start (Sifan Hassan for one).
I think she is fitter than she was at USAs and will do better than 4th runner for the US. Maybe 2nd or 3rd.
Agree that top 35 would be a strong performance for Allie. She's got the speed for a flat course and barriers shouldn't pose a problem but the heat will be tough for her. Also, her racing endurance at this point remains untested. Plus, the pressure factor is much higher at Worlds than it was at USAs where nobody focused on her prior to the race.
Its really annoying that every year the top US men and women runners find an excuse to sit out World Cross.
Ducking real competition wont make them better runners. Seems all they are concerned about is finishing on a podium. How about do it for Team USA for once and not for Nike or Hoka?
She is going to shock some people, she's in stellar shape and ready to enter the pain cave. She's always been better at cross than on the track and she wants this one badly, so expect her to gut out a top 20 finish, collapse at the finish line and cry for at least an hour afterwards, but it will be a job well done.
Her last tune-up 5k race was 16:16 on the roads. Some weaving through traffic. Didn't look like a tough course though. Would be awesome, but totally shocking if she mixed it up for those 14:40-14:50 types for a top 20 finish.
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