interesting thing if he goes to the roads, OAC will have a new spot for an American 5/10 type guy. Who are some candidates?
Have to assume Nico stays with Smith.
I would assume they take Ky Robinson, despite him being a competitor to McDonald. He's already got the ON NIL, absolutely crushing it in the NCAA, and he seems to be a personality fit. Nationality didn't stop them from signing Josette, who overlaps with Alicia.
(Unrelated but I'd also bet OAC picks up Maia Ramsden; she's a Kiwi, and the women's middle distance squad isn't doing too hot.)
Klecker in the marathon is a very interesting prospect. He has better track times across the board than our current two best marathoners (Mantz and Clayton) and I have every reason to believe that he would immediately be in contention for top 5 (top 3?) marathon runners in the US. And he certainly has more of a “grinder” type profile that fits the ‘thon more than the track.
That being said, even if he pivots and becomes the best marathoner in the US tomorrow he’s still going to be perpetually on the outside looking in at the top spots in world races, which is pretty much where he’s at right now.
He’s just not that good. Wouldn’t say he’s in trouble. This is who he’s always been. People finally aren’t overrating him. I’d love for him to prove me wrong but I doubt that’ll happen
I don’t mean this as an insult to either runner, but Joe Klecker is just Ben True with supershoes. Both good runners who can run fast and make teams but they’re both B+ talents not A level talents like Fisher, Rupp, or Young
Well, until Young or Klecker leads the US ahead of Kenya in the World XCountry Championships, as True did in 2013, neither deserves comparison with Ben.
Even more troubling is that he's not even ranked high enough right now. His 2nd best performance is only the 28:24 from last year's US championships however, so he would get a better ranking if they run a faster race this summer at the trials. But there are 16 spots already filled by people with the standard, only 27 make the field. And then they take eight people from the cross country rankings before they go back to the 10,000m rankings. Which means if only three more spots get filled from a fast sub 10,000m race somewhere, then he has zero shot at being qualified.
But sub 27 10,000m races are hard to find, and it's likely the people who do run under 27 are from a country that already has three spots. Either way, it's not looking great. He is relying on a fast race at the US championships, and relying on no one else running sub 27 from other countries.
Road to hasn’t been updated. He’ll jump up quite a bit..
True, his ranking will improve and he'll likely be the top ranked guy who doesn't have the sub 27... But there's still only 3 slots left for non-cross country ranking, so if three guys go sub 27 in another race then he's out.
True, his ranking will improve and he'll likely be the top ranked guy who doesn't have the sub 27... But there's still only 3 slots left for non-cross country ranking, so if three guys go sub 27 in another race then he's out.
Yes, but he needs 1 slot and 1 slot only. How many names (from countries without 3) can you think of are going to either jump Joe by running 27:0x twice or in points events (very unlikely) or straight up run sub-27 (even more unlikely). I feel like we went through this exact thing with Natosha Rogers last year and she was in bleaker shape than Joe will be, and made it pretty easily.
Of the XC/entry qualifying guys from smaller countries, there can be an injury or someone like Oscar Chelimo opts to go 5K only.
So unless, the Adizero road to records 10K/UK's Night of 10Ks unearths a bunch of guys from obscure/not good (GB for men) at the 10K countries, I think Joe's biggest qualification hurdle is finishing top 3.
I would be very surprised if Jimmy Gressier doesn't make it in as well for that matter. After that if you're going to by guys who don't have the entry standard and aren't XC guys it's going to be another Japanese athlete or two, or stud Kenyans/Ethiopians (which don't affect Joe's spot).
This post was edited 42 seconds after it was posted.
Trials can be jog with Joe trying to go sub-27 alone, so there's that.
Leaving both Joe and Sage without events. Too bad nobody cares about XC Nationals, because all I can envision is maybe Joe going XC ski racing. Maybe Sage can race mountain bikes summers.
He’s just not that good. Wouldn’t say he’s in trouble. This is who he’s always been. People finally aren’t overrating him. I’d love for him to prove me wrong but I doubt that’ll happen
I don’t mean this as an insult to either runner, but Joe Klecker is just Ben True with supershoes. Both good runners who can run fast and make teams but they’re both B+ talents not A level talents like Fisher, Rupp, or Young
Ben True was an A+ level talent with a B+ program and runners around him, if any.
Trials can be jog with Joe trying to go sub-27 alone, so there's that.
Leaving both Joe and Sage without events. Too bad nobody cares about XC Nationals, because all I can envision is maybe Joe going XC ski racing. Maybe Sage can race mountain bikes summers.
If Joe's going to try to hit the standard at the trial, no way the field lets him get away. He's going to have to do 10000m leading everyone and then survive kicks from all the guys who spent 9600m drafting off him
i feel like there are certain runners who have an incredible talent for squeezing above-talent-level performances out of themselves. solinsky is an example of this.
the unfortunate reality is that when you lay it all on the line, when you push your body beyond what it is capable of sustainably training for and racing, you take years off your career.
i don't know where klecker is in the spectrum of decline, but i do not expect he will have a long career.
gotta respect the workhorse that he is though. i hope he snatches a spot, though i couldn't pick who i think he'll nip, as its a tough one.
True, his ranking will improve and he'll likely be the top ranked guy who doesn't have the sub 27... But there's still only 3 slots left for non-cross country ranking, so if three guys go sub 27 in another race then he's out.
Yes, but he needs 1 slot and 1 slot only. How many names (from countries without 3) can you think of are going to either jump Joe by running 27:0x twice or in points events (very unlikely) or straight up run sub-27 (even more unlikely). I feel like we went through this exact thing with Natosha Rogers last year and she was in bleaker shape than Joe will be, and made it pretty easily.
Of the XC/entry qualifying guys from smaller countries, there can be an injury or someone like Oscar Chelimo opts to go 5K only.
So unless, the Adizero road to records 10K/UK's Night of 10Ks unearths a bunch of guys from obscure/not good (GB for men) at the 10K countries, I think Joe's biggest qualification hurdle is finishing top 3.
I would be very surprised if Jimmy Gressier doesn't make it in as well for that matter. After that if you're going to by guys who don't have the entry standard and aren't XC guys it's going to be another Japanese athlete or two, or stud Kenyans/Ethiopians (which don't affect Joe's spot).
No GB men will hit the standard. I thought Jack Rowe would have a shot given his recent 5k and HM results but he was way off at The Ten. Maybe Dever can find a few more seconds and creep under. Marc Scott will go for it if London goes badly for him, but he doesn't have a hope if recent form is anything to go by.
As a previous poster mentioned this is a very Solinsky esk vibe. Does anyone recall that Solinsky would run 5:40s and under for easy days… aren’t there klekcer miles??? He typically runs under 6:00 and 5:50 regularly as well for easy days and long runs. This is basically the same thing and it has caused him to reach great heights but may also be his demise.
Yes, but he needs 1 slot and 1 slot only. How many names (from countries without 3) can you think of are going to either jump Joe by running 27:0x twice or in points events (very unlikely) or straight up run sub-27 (even more unlikely).
The other risk is guys from countries like, say, Seychelles taking a universality spot without standard. You're probably right that there's as much chance of someone ahead of Klecker dropping out with injury as there is of getting bumped by Gaylord Silly, but it would be awfully hard to sleep at night until the final entries were in.
Being fit in March is fine but let’s see how things go in June/July when things really matter.
Being fit in June/July won't mean anything if he doesn't have the standard or the ranking.
There is a reason over the last few years distance athletes have been super focused on ultra fast time trials in Feb/March. This is the new formula to make teams. Joe's chances went way down after the Ten. They aren't zero, but he's definitely on the outside looking in because he wasn't fit now. Even if he wins the trials in 27:20, his chances are still really low.
Does Monson still need the standard too? It’s not that hard for Dathan to organize a 10k or two in the next three months as there’s still some decent guys/gals out there who are also close to the standard.
Do his recent results (that are still very solid I'd argue) show it's worth hanging on to the chance of going to the OG's? Or is it time to take advantage of that fitness and focus on Chicago for instance? Tough call.
I don't think he needs to choose between those options. His odds of making the OG team have definitely dropped thanks to the unexpectedly exceptional results from Young this winter (plus strong results from others), but he's still a strong contender. If Chicago called him on the phone today and offered him $200,000 in guaranteed appearance fees if he skipped the track trials and focused on Chicago, I'm guessing he'd say no, and rightly so. The Olympics are a big deal.
If he doesn't make the team, there are still 15 weeks from the end of trials to Chicago. That's doable, though it doesn't seem like the smartest or most likely choice. I'd spend the fall running a couple of halfs then do a marathon in the spring. Or if he wants to make money, New York gives him that (I assume) plus more time to build up.
New York is the way to go (assuming appearance fees are similar). It gives him an extra month and the course suits him better.
Being fit in June/July won't mean anything if he doesn't have the standard or the ranking.
There is a reason over the last few years distance athletes have been super focused on ultra fast time trials in Feb/March. This is the new formula to make teams. Joe's chances went way down after the Ten. They aren't zero, but he's definitely on the outside looking in because he wasn't fit now. Even if he wins the trials in 27:20, his chances are still really low.
Does Monson still need the standard too? It’s not that hard for Dathan to organize a 10k or two in the next three months as there’s still some decent guys/gals out there who are also close to the standard.
She has it from the Ten last year, plus she's considerably more dominant than Joe in the 10k.
He’s just not that good. Wouldn’t say he’s in trouble. This is who he’s always been. People finally aren’t overrating him. I’d love for him to prove me wrong but I doubt that’ll happen
I agree Klecker is not in trouble. But when you say he is just not that good, I know you are trolling. Big time. The US must be a distance running powerhouse if a 12:54 and 27:07 runner is just not that good. Will he ever medal? Of course not. But when you run 12:54 and 27:07, you are pretty good.
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