1:45.8, 3:32.8, 3:48.8, 7:39. Those are smoking times for a 20 year old and world indoor bronze is solid but I'm not sure where I see him going from here.
A sub 1:44 800 seems out of the question so probably not an 800 man.
Can I see him running sub 3:28/3:45 for the 1500 mile and competing for outdoor global medals and Diamond League wins?
Maybe, but I get the sense he's just a hair less fit than the most aerobically fit like JI and Nuguse, and definitely lacks the kick from 300 meters out that Kerr, Wightman, Hocker and Beamish have.
I also don't see him moving up to 5k based on his chosen coach (Warhurst) and mentor (Willis).
Seeing that he's barely done speed work this season except for racing, I'd say sub 3:30 this year and 1:44.x if he gets in the right race.
Career: 3:26 / 3:42 would not be surprising.
....He was already faster than the NCAA 1500 record straight out of HS before Guse re-set it in his final race of his final NCAA season. Your comparison to Beamish, Kerr is nonsense because he's already 5-7 seconds faster than they were in the NCAA at age 20!
Kessler may not be on the podium in Paris but by 2028 he may be the greatest US miler ever.
For now, 2024 is shaping up to be one of the greatest years ever for milers and Kessler is part of that.
At age 20 Kerr ran 3:35 so Hobbs is just over 2 seconds faster!? At 21 Kerr ran 3:32.52.
But why not compare with the best? In 2018 one of your favorite runners (a Norwegian) ran low 3:31 at the age of 17 AND IN THE OLD SHOES.
He's 20 (turning 21 next week). If he were a college junior running these times and progressing like this, he'd get universal celebration here.
But we are already judging him next to the very best in the world so he looks like he's "lacking."
He ran a fantastic race in Glasgow. Smart tactics from beginning to end. He's always had the talent and drive. Now he's gathering the racing acumen. Watch out world.
It would be SHOCKING, like truly unbelievable if HK runs that fast. I would bet a lot of money against it.
True, but if someone is going to do it, I would think it would be a prodigy. Jakob was so good so young. Kessler ran faster than Webb did in high school. Those type of guys.
Seems like he was faster at a younger age than someone like Nuguse who is all-world now. Nuguse still puzzles me. Seems like he was a mid-3:30s guy for 4 years in a row and then bam, suddenly 3:29. Surely Kessler is more talented than that, right? Kind of the same with Kerr.
If they made the leap from stagnating around 3:33/3:32 to 3:29 why not Kessler who is younger and more raw?
1:45.8, 3:32.8, 3:48.8, 7:39. Those are smoking times for a 20 year old and world indoor bronze is solid but I'm not sure where I see him going from here.
A sub 1:44 800 seems out of the question so probably not an 800 man.
Can I see him running sub 3:28/3:45 for the 1500 mile and competing for outdoor global medals and Diamond League wins?
Maybe, but I get the sense he's just a hair less fit than the most aerobically fit like JI and Nuguse, and definitely lacks the kick from 300 meters out that Kerr, Wightman, Hocker and Beamish have.
I also don't see him moving up to 5k based on his chosen coach (Warhurst) and mentor (Willis).
r-e-l-a-x
He's 20 years old, of course he's gonna be slightly behind aerobically compared to guys who are 4-6 years older.
You're freaking out about his kick, he's got a great kick. Hocker and Beamish have the best last 150's in the world right now. No one else in the world is capable of beating them in a 3:36 race that comes down to a last lap sprint. If you look at the final 100m splits, Hobbs ran 0.12 faster than Nordas, who kicked his way to a medal outdoors.
He's a miler, he's in the right event. If he stays healthy he'll make global finals outdoors and compete for medals during his career.
1:45.8, 3:32.8, 3:48.8, 7:39. Those are smoking times for a 20 year old and world indoor bronze is solid but I'm not sure where I see him going from here.
A sub 1:44 800 seems out of the question so probably not an 800 man.
Can I see him running sub 3:28/3:45 for the 1500 mile and competing for outdoor global medals and Diamond League wins?
Maybe, but I get the sense he's just a hair less fit than the most aerobically fit like JI and Nuguse, and definitely lacks the kick from 300 meters out that Kerr, Wightman, Hocker and Beamish have.
I also don't see him moving up to 5k based on his chosen coach (Warhurst) and mentor (Willis).
Hocker and Beamish have the best last 150's in the world right now. No one else in the world is capable of beating them in a 3:36 race that comes down to a last lap sprint.
Is this really true? I am not saying you’re wrong but I don’t happen to think this is true. Wouldn’t one of the 1:44 runners who can also run 3:36 have a chance of finishing as fast or faster? Like Kerr? Or a fit Wightman? Or even somebody else?
Hocker and Beamish have the best last 150's in the world right now. No one else in the world is capable of beating them in a 3:36 race that comes down to a last lap sprint.
Is this really true? I am not saying you’re wrong but I don’t happen to think this is true. Wouldn’t one of the 1:44 runners who can also run 3:36 have a chance of finishing as fast or faster? Like Kerr? Or a fit Wightman? Or even somebody else?
Isn't Engels a 1:44 guy? Do you see him kicking past Hocker or Beamish at any pace? I don't.
Is this really true? I am not saying you’re wrong but I don’t happen to think this is true. Wouldn’t one of the 1:44 runners who can also run 3:36 have a chance of finishing as fast or faster? Like Kerr? Or a fit Wightman? Or even somebody else?
Isn't Engels a 1:44 guy? Do you see him kicking past Hocker or Beamish at any pace? I don't.
I wasn’t referring to Engels. I think Beamish and Hocker are good kickers but neither is the best in the world.
I think he may downplay his speed potential. He noted in a podcast that he has been timed at a 4.1 flying 40, with a goal of getting below 4.0. While top end speed is not fully indicative of an 800 or 1500, that is SPEED. He downplays his speed because his closest comparison is the now indoor 800m world champion that DOMINATED every round. Hoppel seriously appears to be in contention for the best in the world - in my opinion it's just a race for second behind Arop - but Hobbs compares his speed to a guy that should be shooting for sub 1:43, and a guy that might be in the prime of his career for the 800. It would not surprise me if Hoppel ran 1:42 this year and that Hobbs runs below 1:44 in his life, and being a 1:43 guy that might also be able to break 13 for 5k, the potential has to be essentially as high as any other miler/1500 runner ever. I'm not saying he'll be the best ever, but there's no denying that he has as much potential as anybody, ever, over the 1500. He's 20. Imagine he continues building on his top end and continues with his doubles and aerobic work for the next 5 years til he's 25. While always unlikely to run world records, he has the POTENTIAL to, and that can not and should not be denied.
Based off his interviews, and the way he approaches the sport mentally, I feel he's very mature, confident, and much more considerate about his training and racing with self-awareness and honesty that will be very useful, with the openness to anything happening that I believe will propell him to legendary status.
My predictions are that he ends up running 1:43, 3:26, and sub 12:50. I can't bring myself to predict anyone will run below 3:26, but, he has as much potential to as anybody in my eyes.
Seeing that he's barely done speed work this season except for racing, I'd say sub 3:30 this year and 1:44.x if he gets in the right race.
Career: 3:26 / 3:42 would not be surprising.
....He was already faster than the NCAA 1500 record straight out of HS before Guse re-set it in his final race of his final NCAA season. Your comparison to Beamish, Kerr is nonsense because he's already 5-7 seconds faster than they were in the NCAA at age 20!
Kessler may not be on the podium in Paris but by 2028 he may be the greatest US miler ever.
For now, 2024 is shaping up to be one of the greatest years ever for milers and Kessler is part of that.
At age 20 Kerr ran 3:35 so Hobbs is just over 2 seconds faster!? At 21 Kerr ran 3:32.52.
But why not compare with the best? In 2018 one of your favorite runners (a Norwegian) ran low 3:31 at the age of 17 AND IN THE OLD SHOES.
By 17 Jakob had been training seriously for 8 years. If I’m remembering right, at 17 Kessler was a climbing prodigy who just met Ron Warhurst
My predictions are that he ends up running 1:43, 3:26, and sub 12:50. I can't bring myself to predict anyone will run below 3:26, but, he has as much potential to as anybody in my eyes.
So he is going to be about the best middle distance runner who has ever lived. Then why the hell is the about to turn 21 year old not better than he is? He ran 3:34 three years ago and he is now a 3:32 guy, who probably can run 3:31 now. He is a far cry from 3:26. He has improved about 3 seconds (if we give him 3:31) in 3 years and the improvement will be harder to come by now. I think he is great but he has shown NOTHING to indicate he will be as fast as Hicham.
My predictions are that he ends up running 1:43, 3:26, and sub 12:50. I can't bring myself to predict anyone will run below 3:26, but, he has as much potential to as anybody in my eyes.
So he is going to be about the best middle distance runner who has ever lived. Then why the hell is the about to turn 21 year old not better than he is? He ran 3:34 three years ago and he is now a 3:32 guy, who probably can run 3:31 now. He is a far cry from 3:26. He has improved about 3 seconds (if we give him 3:31) in 3 years and the improvement will be harder to come by now. I think he is great but he has shown NOTHING to indicate he will be as fast as Hicham.
Progress at the pro level is not always a neat linear line. Look at Webb's 3:53 in HS, and how long it took him to get back under that and eventually to 3:46. The range Hobbs has developed over the last year indicates to me he will run under 3:30 soon once he gets in the right race.
Everyone develops differently, you can't really compare head to head at a young age and extrapolate with any degree of certainty. At 17 years old I was crushing Eric Jenkins. He ended up with slightly better lifetime pr's...
I think he may downplay his speed potential. He noted in a podcast that he has been timed at a 4.1 flying 40, with a goal of getting below 4.0. While top end speed is not fully indicative of an 800 or 1500, that is SPEED. He downplays his speed because his closest comparison is the now indoor 800m world champion that DOMINATED every round. Hoppel seriously appears to be in contention for the best in the world - in my opinion it's just a race for second behind Arop - but Hobbs compares his speed to a guy that should be shooting for sub 1:43, and a guy that might be in the prime of his career for the 800. It would not surprise me if Hoppel ran 1:42 this year and that Hobbs runs below 1:44 in his life, and being a 1:43 guy that might also be able to break 13 for 5k, the potential has to be essentially as high as any other miler/1500 runner ever. I'm not saying he'll be the best ever, but there's no denying that he has as much potential as anybody, ever, over the 1500. He's 20. Imagine he continues building on his top end and continues with his doubles and aerobic work for the next 5 years til he's 25. While always unlikely to run world records, he has the POTENTIAL to, and that can not and should not be denied.
Based off his interviews, and the way he approaches the sport mentally, I feel he's very mature, confident, and much more considerate about his training and racing with self-awareness and honesty that will be very useful, with the openness to anything happening that I believe will propell him to legendary status.
My predictions are that he ends up running 1:43, 3:26, and sub 12:50. I can't bring myself to predict anyone will run below 3:26, but, he has as much potential to as anybody in my eyes.
I'm a Hobbs fan, but what about him indicates he has as much potential as anyone? Jakob had run far faster at age 20. Laros is younger and has run faster and competed better (let's face it world indoors is not the cream of the crop), Cam Myers has run super fast and is younger. That isn't even mentioning Nguse or Kerr or Jake. I think Hobbs will have a fantastic career, but I don't see anything that indicates he'll be one of the best 1500 meter men ever.
look up their progressions, year to year, in the 1500 and 800.
nobody knows where hobbs will go from here. most people are not on the Jakob schedule.
I agree Hobbs can expect more improvement than Jakob given his lifetime training, but we can't forget the super spike effect here which complicates looking at any athlete's progression these days.
My predictions are that he ends up running 1:43, 3:26, and sub 12:50. I can't bring myself to predict anyone will run below 3:26, but, he has as much potential to as anybody in my eyes.
So he is going to be about the best middle distance runner who has ever lived. Then why the hell is the about to turn 21 year old not better than he is? He ran 3:34 three years ago and he is now a 3:32 guy, who probably can run 3:31 now. He is a far cry from 3:26. He has improved about 3 seconds (if we give him 3:31) in 3 years and the improvement will be harder to come by now. I think he is great but he has shown NOTHING to indicate he will be as fast as Hicham.
Nothing except being faster than Hicham at the same age.
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