DETAILS :-
We've merged two Tokyo threads into 1 and remind you we'll be going live at 8 pm ET to break down World Indoors and catch the end of Tokyo:
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Is this the official Tokyo marathon thread?
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Charlesvdw wrote:
3th in 2:05. You heard it here first.
agreed
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Ima go 2:02:54 for the win in the narrowest marathon victory of his career (that is 5 seconds or less).
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I think he will run in the 2:03s. I agree he is past his prime, but juuuuust barely — maybe he has lost a minute or 90 seconds off his 2022 form (2:02:40 in Tokyo and 2:01:09 WR Berlin). He is one of the most consistent marathoners we have ever seen and knows this course so I expect him to squeeze his potential out of it.
at this stage in his career he is no longer head and shoulders above the rest at his best, so whether he wins depends more on whether someone else really arrives tomorrow.
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birdbeard wrote:
I think he will run in the 2:03s. I agree he is past his prime, but juuuuust barely — maybe he has lost a minute or 90 seconds off his 2022 form (2:02:40 in Tokyo and 2:01:09 WR Berlin). He is one of the most consistent marathoners we have ever seen and knows this course so I expect him to squeeze his potential out of it.
at this stage in his career he is no longer head and shoulders above the rest at his best, so whether he wins depends more on whether someone else really arrives tomorrow.
One more thing I’ll add — part of whether he can continue to win races in the tail end of his career is whether he can manage expectations and pride. If he goes out in 14:12 and 60:22 like he did 6 months ago in Berlin, he’s a lot more likely to lose than he if accepts he probably isn’t gonna set another WR and splits 61:30 or 62:00 though halfway and then brings it home.
remember—despite going out in those splits in Berlin and running alone for like 30km, he still beat Kipkwemoi by 30 seconds. With better pacing and competition/help with leading I think he is still the man to beat in just about any race you can put him in.
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apfeliris wrote:
John Wesley Harding wrote:
I don’t think it’s meaningful that we haven’t heard about his build-up and it says more about the media and fans than it does Kipchoge’s training.
I think this is absolutely right. Tokyo is just a bridge to Paris, which is the real focus of this stage of Eliud's career. It's not surprising we haven't heard much about his build-up, especially coming off a solid but seemingly decline-revealing 2:02:42 in Berlin. I think he could progress back to another remarkable sub 2:02. He ran 2:02:40 last time in Tokyo with a wrong turn at 10k and seemingly not too much attention on the clock.
I think a 2:04+ would be a major warning sign. Any thing under 2:04 signifies he's still a major threat in Tokyo, and anything under 2:03 would make him far and away the presumptive favorite.
Decline revealing 2.02.42 is a wiiild statement
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Roro Sila wrote:
apfeliris wrote:
I think this is absolutely right. Tokyo is just a bridge to Paris, which is the real focus of this stage of Eliud's career. It's not surprising we haven't heard much about his build-up, especially coming off a solid but seemingly decline-revealing 2:02:42 in Berlin. I think he could progress back to another remarkable sub 2:02. He ran 2:02:40 last time in Tokyo with a wrong turn at 10k and seemingly not too much attention on the clock.
I think a 2:04+ would be a major warning sign. Any thing under 2:04 signifies he's still a major threat in Tokyo, and anything under 2:03 would make him far and away the presumptive favorite.
Decline revealing 2.02.42 is a wiiild statement
Particularly when you consider the splits. He went for a new WR and then fell off the pace and did enough to win.
that said, I think it’s clear that he can’t be in 2:01 shape forever and a year prior, he went out even faster in Berlin and held up much better. So small decline? Yep.
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Oh, boy. Kipchoge at Tokyo. Pinch me.
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2:02 mid wrote:
who cares 123 wrote:
Kipchoge will start taking all the credit now as the "best runner ever" even though Kiptum pulled his pants down x3.
The irony is both are doped out of their minds, but they are household names and too big to bring down. Katir was low hanging fruit.
Hey, s*** is supposed to come out your a** not your mouth. You got it the other way around.
U mad bro? Kipchoge is a fake.
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It's is fascinating that many people think Kipchoge is clean. I can acknowledge he comes across as a nice guy. But that doesn't absolve him from wandering into the immoral. No human is without fault.
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2:02:56 for Kipchoge to win, which is just enough to win
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Leaderboard will be here10
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DNF
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Charlesvdw wrote:
3th in 2:05. You heard it here first.
4rd in 2:06
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birdbeard wrote:
birdbeard wrote:
I think he will run in the 2:03s. I agree he is past his prime, but juuuuust barely — maybe he has lost a minute or 90 seconds off his 2022 form (2:02:40 in Tokyo and 2:01:09 WR Berlin). He is one of the most consistent marathoners we have ever seen and knows this course so I expect him to squeeze his potential out of it.
at this stage in his career he is no longer head and shoulders above the rest at his best, so whether he wins depends more on whether someone else really arrives tomorrow.
One more thing I’ll add — part of whether he can continue to win races in the tail end of his career is whether he can manage expectations and pride. If he goes out in 14:12 and 60:22 like he did 6 months ago in Berlin, he’s a lot more likely to lose than he if accepts he probably isn’t gonna set another WR and splits 61:30 or 62:00 though halfway and then brings it home.
remember—despite going out in those splits in Berlin and running alone for like 30km, he still beat Kipkwemoi by 30 seconds. With better pacing and competition/help with leading I think he is still the man to beat in just about any race you can put him in.
I think the focus on Paris will allow EK to relax today and just run for the win in 2:03 something. Everything he does now is just part of his Paris training and one last “meaningful” race for him. I’m sure his team knows the wr is out of the question for him and so is likely winning all of the majors.
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Also going to predict that Hassan prs. She goes under 2:13 and wins.
Weather is low 40s and very light winds.
Should be super fast day overall.
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.10 -
minong wrote:
he's far too experienced to take on a pace that would result an a true blowup.
That's what we thought when he started pushing the pace a mile into Boston.
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2:00:24.9
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I am starting this thread because I haven’t seen another one. I am watching on Flotrack and there does not appear to be any commentary,
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