Jake Wightman on Jakob: "He is very good at time trialling, but probably not as good in championships as he thought.”

I'm the biggest Jakob fan in the world but that's what people without a kick say. They have to say it.

When Jakob runs the 5000, he doesn't dominate from the front. He's more than happy to come from behind there as his kick in that race is very good.

Do you remember how he set his pb and won in Florence in 12:48? Let me remind you.

The Norwegian, who had sagged off the pace and found himself over two seconds back of the lead at 3k (7:44.6 for Cheptegei, 7:46.7 for Ingebrigtsen), rallied over the final mile and outsprinted Olympic bronze medalist Hagos Gebriwhet of Ethiopia down the home straight to win in 12:48.45 — a European record that makes Ingebrigtsen the fastest non-African-born runner of all time (12th-fastest overall). Ingebrigtsen won with a 56.1 final 400 (27.4 final 200).

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2021 Florence DL: Hassan (3:53) Beats Kipyegon in 1500 Thriller; Ingebrigtsen Runs 12:48 to Win Loaded 5K

LetsRun.com

Wow. The women's 1500 and men's 5000 both lived up to the hype and were incredible as an amazing week of distance running continued tonight.

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In the 5000, Jakob may be like Kerr/Wightman in the 1500 - not the best in time trials but incredible in championship races. Jakob doesn't run a lot of DL 5000s so it's hard to say how he is in a TT 5000. Is he best in the world at that? I don't know.

But in both the Kerr and especially Wightman race, he didn’t dominate. He let them back on the third lap.

It’s like he loses his nerve at 1000 metres.

You make a decent point here. Kerr is not that much faster than Ingebrigtsen at 800 - 145 vs 146. Wightman is a 1:43 guy. That's a whole other level.

There is a reason why Wightman leads Kerr head to head 6 to 4 at 1500. Now I know Kerr has two global medals and Jake only 1.

Most of the time in the 1500 as John Kellogg likes to say, the 1500 results end up in the order of their PRs even it's slow if they run it right. I'd like to see Jakob try to run some slow 1500s and see what happens.

In a slow 1500 like say Rio, I think Jakob has a good chance of sitting on Kerr and still beating him. Just wait until the last 150 to take the lead. As for Wightman? I'm not sure.

Jakob can’t be in their situation as he has no faith in his ability to close in 50.

it is unlikely Jake or Josh are there if JI gets a race like the Olympics were someone rabbits him for 1000m. If JI has to take from the start, his situation is rough.

personally I expect a year older Laros to beat them all. More speed than JI and he is going to be stronger than kerr. But he might need 1-2 more years.

And I don’t think it is the training that matters as much as genetics. JI just doesn’t have sub 48.5 type speed from what we have seen.

Either that or try running like a really fast 200 mid-race to gap the field mid-race. Then everyone behind him would not be able to draft off of him.

Everyone expects Jakob to go out in the back for the first 200 and then take the lead at 300. What if he did what Kiprop did and ran the first 400 in like 53. Or the 2nd 400 in 53. Just try to gap them so they don't have the rabbit advantage. If you are Wightman, you'd have to pray that someone like Nuguse (not that Katir is gone) tried to bridge the gap and gives you a chance. It probably wipes out Nuguse if he goes for it but if they don't then the race is Jakob's.

Jakob ran 7:54.1 for christs sake, that is worth atleast a 12:40, putting him in the realm of TT 5000’s

The rent free thing would make sense if he wasn't 0-3 since winning once.

The fashion in which he won in 2020 indicates he isn't as dominant as some of you would like to believe. He's a strength based 1500 guy who is going to be great at time trialing and being in the mix. The speed guys who WILL still be around during the last lap will beat him just about every time. No secret here

That fast 200 would break him too. He's not immune to that in my opinion

Wightman and Kerr can say whatever they want, both will get beat in Paris by Jakob, Goose, and Hobbs MF Kessler.

Dear Rojo, I think the quotes do make some sense actually. I think in a slow race it's Kerr's and Wightman's race but in a fast race it's more likely Jakob's. It's all probabilistic, and avoidance of anthropogenic RF and EMF exposure adds more probability towards a win under all race scenarios. It isn't the athlete most well-prepared that wins the race, it's the athlete most protected from anthropogenic RF and EMF exposure in space-time that does!

Exactly. People seem to get the impression that Jakob CAN'T hang with those diamond league 5ks just because he doesn't run them. This is a mistake. He doesn't run them because he knows he doesn't have to, to beat all those guys when he wants to. Instead he races more in the aim of getting closer to the 1500 world record, because it's the one he wants more than any other.

If/when he achieves it, I believe we'll see him take aim at the 5k world record.

Pls dun say that, I also love my Josh Kerr too did you know that? While Hobbs is looking more like a threat now that he has come onboard my RF consultancy in secret hehe!

I think that deep down, some part of them knows this, but when you're JI you're not supposed to say the quiet part out loud. Some of that is his ego, but some of that, too, is Wightman and Kerr sounding off like JI isn't the cream of the field (with the reality being that the cream of the field often doesn't win in unpredictable races like 800m and 1500m).

I think this is all just overthinking it at least vis a vis Kerr/Wightman.

2022: He's in 3:28ish shape and allows the race to slow down . He makes a couple of tactical blunders (fending off surges from the Kenyans, letting Jake get by him at 200). Jake gets a step on him with the pass, and Jakob does his best but he's not passing him in a 100m sprint.

2023: He WAS in 3:27 shape, but he doesn't run like it. He sets the stage for a 3:29 race (with a kick) again, and then he actually does run tactically smart. He doesn't let Kerr go by. But his kick is so weak he runs out of gas and almost gets beat by Nordas. We find out he was sick.

In 2022, he was probably not good enough to execute his frontrun strategy and made several blunders. In 2023, he didn't even really try with his slow setup to the last lap. So, we've yet to see him actually try to run away. I don't think 800m speed figures into all this at all. He simply needs to make an actually fast race where guys won't be able to hold hard moves from 200m out.

I would say he believes in his ability to close, he just believes his odds are better from the front.

And he is the only guy who actually has both options. Nobody else has a snowball's chance in hell from the front.

This is by far the best summary. Wightman and Kerr place extreme faith in two examples. But it wasn't two examples. Jakob was clearly off in 2023. During the middle of the race I was yelling, "What is he doing?" He hadn't run like that all year.

The way he ran the 5000 was further verification that he was sick.

In 2022 there were blunders galore. Mid race and final lap. Wightman surged alongside and Jakob thought he had settled there, slightly behind. A cocky Jakob assumed the threat was over and actually turned his head left toward the infield. Wightman seized opportunity to surge again. The race was essentially over at that point.

Fast forward to 2023. Jakob wasn't going to make that mistake again. He's going to keep Kerr or anyone else at bay, like Farah did and Kipyegon does. His body wasn't up to it on the day.

IMO, he also needs to change the way he runs the heats. Kipyegon always replicates her finals strategy. Jakob for some idiotic reason thinks it's clever to hang back and run like an American. Meanwhile if he simply went to the front the field would be intimidated by him. With no time qualifiers anymore he'd get away with lots of cruising with low energy level and low stress. Forced to circle late is always stressful and injects needless variables.

The only question is whether the recent training setbacks have lessened his chance to be in 2023 form by Paris. In some ways the 2023 result actually favors Jakob in Paris because Wightman, Kerr and others assume it will favor that scenario again. Nuguse via Eugene has the best evidence of how Paris will likely unfold. You need to be fast enough to defeat Jakob at his best, and not rely on some flimsy assumption that a championship scenario changes everything.

I've worked in sports stats offices, albeit 20 years ago. I would have been laughed out of the room if I presented loud confidence in a sample of 2.

the pathetic sniveling coward wightman just lost to a 20 year old american (lol) and wants to criticize jakob, for winning 1500m olympic gold, then 2 1500m world 2nds and 2 5000m worlds wins. So 3 wins and 2 seconds. is somehow not good at championship racing? my god what a pathetic sniveling coward little jakey is. unbearable

0-3? huh? did you skip math class. the 2020 olympics were held in 2021 bud

Yes, that’s correct. But if we throw in Euro champs golds, and maybe a couple of golds from other WC events I think the picture would look somewhat different..

But I really liked Jake’s analysis -intelligent and well balanced. But I would rather go for Jakob’s way (in the latter’s situation)…