Carnage in Orlando by the numbers

The weather made the race better. I wish Berlin was that interesting. No pacers, hard racing conditions, and amazing athletes makes a great race.

There’s this misconception that it’s going to be hot and humid in Paris for the Olympics. It may be but there’s as much chance as it being cool and rainy. I’ve lived in France. Northern France in particular does not have a similar climate to Florida at any time of the year. Only if there’s a random heatwave.

Have you ever been in Paris in August? Random heatwave... really?

I would love to believe this, but it’s just not true. They don’t care about “replicating” Paris. They just care about who pays the most to host. You think USATF will make sure that they host the 2028 trials in LA on the Olympic course? Cuz I sure as hell don’t.

Didn’t they initially choose a hilly course 4 years ago in Atlanta because at the time they were expecting a hilly course in Tokyo?

Yes

I said I lived there…it’s often rainy and cool in July/August.

Could go either way. I’m just disputing the fact that most seem to assume it will be hot and humid and therefore you need to recreate those ‘Paris summer conditions’. Even now I wouldn’t holiday there in the summer as it’s too cool on the whole. South of France is guaranteed largely to be hot but not the North.

Are those stats really any different from past Trials?

Paris weather data on August 10 the last 3 years:

Average morning temperatures of 61 degrees with 84% humidity, and average daytime temperatures of 79 degrees with 47% humidity. Not cool at all.

world-weather.info

Weather in Paris, August 10 — World-Weather.info

Detailed Weather Forecast in Paris, August 10. Temperature, wind, atmospheric pressure, humidity and precipitations. Weather Forecast for 20000 cities

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Wow. They spin this as the shooter being pledged to the Islamic State! Never stop pushing war. Talk about it being a Gay nite club but fail to mention the shooter was gay.

As stupid as they are, the Olympic Marathon is often (will be this time) hot and the Paris course has hills.

I DO think that if it started earlier we would have had 3 men under 2:08 and the women would have been even faster.

But to pick a team for a hot and hilly race maybe the conditions should be as closer to that than a cool, flat, fast course?

But then, just getting into the Olympics requires a fast time and a comparison from a list of people who ran on all different courses in all kinds of weather.

The should just go back to the A and B standard. It doesn't matter how many are in the Olympic Marathon. It's a great way to showcase the sport.

Your stats are a little misguided and I'm going off the tracking website

410 men and women qualified (your figure, I am not going to bother to look it up)

305 started the race (or at least, made it to mile 1 according to the tracking website)

267 finished the race (87.5% of the field - 150men/117women)

82 finishers ran under their respective OTQ time (26% of starters, 30.7% of the finishers; 41 men; 41 women)

Before you say 'the race should have been held somewhere/sometime else' - you should compare these figures to Atlanta, Los Angeles, and Houston.

I normally agree with the logic, but I don't think that should come at the expense of potentially sacrificing a guy on the start line at the Olympics. The US men have a real risk of only starting two guys.

I understand that concern. It would be unfortunate if we can only send 2 guys. I just don’t think runners should rely on the trials to get their qualifying time. It’s more important that the conditions of the Olympic marathon are replicated (which I agree wasn’t done to perfection). I’d rather send 2 guys who have proven themselves in similar conditions to the race than 3 guys who ran in cooler conditions than what they’re likely to face in Paris in August.

How many dropouts simply dropped out due to preserving fitness for a race with a payday rather than "glory" of finishing?

How many showed up because they earned the right and just wanted to be there and drop out rather than become a no-show if they we're fit to compete?

Yes 61 degrees in the morning - isn’t the marathon starting at 8am in Paris? So that’s 16 degrees. It’s a temperate climate. It does cool down a lot overnight here and is warmest in the afternoon. Unlike tropical climates that don’t cool down overnight.

In Orlando they were running in the full sun approaching midday. They won’t be doing that in Paris.

As a comparison it’s 13 degrees here in London today with 80% humidity. So only 3 degrees cooler than those ‘average’ morning temperatures. I can assure you it’s very cool verging on cold.

Yep. With both Boston and the Olympic Trials, for the majority of entrants, qualifying is the achievement; the race itself is just a victory lap.

There is always a lot of carnage at the Olympic marathon trials. Think back to the trials in Central Park that Ryan Hall won. Won’t go into the details, but haven’t watched the trials since. Still the best way to select the team.