Why would you need someone with 2:08:10 ?
Scott FAUBLE is currently in the world rankings quota of "World of Paris" which makes 3 entries theoretically. Run a fast half marathon and it gives you also points on that list.
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They should just encourage him to run a really fast HM instead. There’re several options.
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Sponsor? Meaning Korir is a contractor, not an employee? Not happening.
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MatthewXCountry wrote:
Korir's spot in the Olympics is looking good, but still far from gauranteed. He could run a fast marathon in a few months to gaurantee it, but that might hurt his performance at the olympics.
An idea, what if Korir's sponsor offered a cash bonus to the first US marathoner, who was not in the top 3 at the trials, to run 2:08:10 or faster before May 5th. If no one runs the qualifying time by May 5th, but a non-top 3 finisher at the trials passes Korir on the road to Paris list, the prize goes to the highest ranked American (out of the non-top 3 finishers at the trials) on the road to paris list.
Right now there is little incentive for US marathon runners to gaurantee we get a third spot (except for Korir). It is definitely in Korir's interest to give fellow Americans who missed out a push to go get him that third spot.
This is a fantastic idea. Difficult for sure, but several guys have the potential to do this, especially if we count getting in by the rankings.
As others have posted, it's true that offering $20,000 or something to run a 2:08:10 isn't enough to be "worth it", but that's overlooking the potential extra exposure and positive coverage for everyone involved.
This is the type of human interest story that NBC absolutely LOVES:
Aspiring Olympian falls short of his dream; now he's helping a fellow American achieve his
Twenty-three miles into the US Olympic Marathon Trials, Zach Panning could almost see the Olympic rings in his mind...
OR
Four years after heartbreak in Atlanta, in the race he had dreamed about every night for years, Scott Fauble was over on the side of the road at mile 9 of the US Olympic Marathon Trials, puking his guts out...
OR
With a mile to go and the all-important trip to Paris within sight, CJ Albertson was closing hard...
THEN:
After heartbreak in Orlando dashed his own dreams, ________ will now try to make his compatriot's Olympic dream become reality.
...Panning has replayed those last three miles in his mind every night since the Trials. Now he has the chance to run them again, but this time, it's not for him.
OR
...Fauble, every year a threat for a top 10 finish at Boston, this year has a greater goal. "I want to send Korir to Paris", Fauble said.
OR
...Albertson will now try to do what he does best: run fast marathons more frequently than should be humanly possible. But this time he needs to run faster than ever before.
Then if one of them achieves it, there's all that publicity about Korir saying "thank you; I'll do my best for Team USA" and Panning/Fauble/Albertson/etc. saying lots of humble things and getting great publicity.
In order for all of media attention, it has to be a *thing*, rather than just happening (as an unintended byproduct of Fauble's world ranking, for instance). It would be a public relations coup for Korir, his agent, and whoever achieves the standard or position in the ranking, if anyone.
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THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
They should just encourage him to run a really fast HM instead. There’re several options.
Agreed, my first thought at the end of the race.
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peekay wrote:
Peg wrote:
There isn’t anyone that could fill this criteria. If there was, they would have been in the race and most likely beaten Korir.
This.
There are 2 Americans who can hit 2:08 (based on last 6 months). They’ve already done it and destroyed everyone else yesterday.
You make it seem like panning wasn't there through 22-23 miles... No reason to think with slightly better racing conditions and a faster course him or someone else couldn't manage 2:08:10
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Peg wrote:
There isn’t anyone that could fill this criteria. If there was, they would have been in the race and most likely beaten Korir.
Panning was on pace for 2:09:05 until the last two miles, in 70+ degree weather, leading most of the race. I think many of these guys are capable of 2:09 low or 2:08 high, and I think Panning is capable of 2:08:10. Remember, all it taks is for one of these guys to run a 2:09 low or 2:08 high to move up considerably in the road to Paris list.
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OP doesn't have a clue.
1. Korir runs for the Army; he does not have a sponsor. His Nike 'sponsorship' has WCAP as the middleman.
2. USATF stated in Orlando that the 3rd place finisher cannot himself go chase the 2:08:10 standard.
3. I'd say his chances are less than 20% because while he is in the correct place NOW in the WA road to Paris list, when you have 60+ sub 2:09 guys running Tokyo soon, plus add in other fast spring marathons, Lenny will move lower on the list.
Sorry US but these are the facts and reality. We're likely sending only 2 guys.
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ny_city_vibes wrote:
Why would you need someone with 2:08:10 ?
Scott FAUBLE is currently in the world rankings quota of "World of Paris" which makes 3 entries theoretically. Run a fast half marathon and it gives you also points on that list.
Yes fast half marathon is a possability, so that is a really good idea.
However, we don't know if Fauble or Korir will be high enough ranked after London on April 24th. If London is fast, or there is a bunch of fast half marathons, there could be a slew of runners passing these guys who are not already qualified. Its probably unlikely 12 people pass Fauble, but its definitely possible that people do. Fauble is in based on his top 2 performances 7th at Boston, 2:09:44, and 9th at New York, 2:13:35, in the qualifying window. Good performances but all of the guys in the top 100 are capable of better ones on a great day, and rankings are based on your top two performances (not on a full season or running) meaning they can radically change.
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Mike Rodick wrote:
OP doesn't have a clue.
1. Korir runs for the Army; he does not have a sponsor. His Nike 'sponsorship' has WCAP as the middleman.
2. USATF stated in Orlando that the 3rd place finisher cannot himself go chase the 2:08:10 standard.
3. I'd say his chances are less than 20% because while he is in the correct place NOW in the WA road to Paris list, when you have 60+ sub 2:09 guys running Tokyo soon, plus add in other fast spring marathons, Lenny will move lower on the list.
Sorry US but these are the facts and reality. We're likely sending only 2 guys.
What countries do think those 60+ sub 2:09 guys are coming from?
No seriously, list 8-10 possible spots that could be earned in Tokyo by sub 2:09 people from countries that don’t already have 3 spots.
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Tokyo being so deep actually hurts people trying to qualify. You gets tons of bonus placing points for Gold Label events. But if you're not in the Top 15 (or something like that) you don't get any points.) Fauble has 1179 points, the next person (70th) has 1163. So they'd need a 1195 point performance to tie him. With no bonus points, that's worth about 2:08:03.
People further down the list are so many points behind they'd need to run like 2:06 to pass Fauble, unless they place high at Tokyo, London, or Boston. Maybe a few will, but the odds of these races being filled at the top with random runners from small countries is unlikely. So, there's a very, very good chance that United States keeps a 3rd spot. (People aren't going to score enough with 1/2 marathon times. They'd need to run under 60:00 for ~1195 points and the caliber of guys that far down the list aren't going to do that.)
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Mike Rodick wrote:
OP doesn't have a clue.
1. Korir runs for the Army; he does not have a sponsor. His Nike 'sponsorship' has WCAP as the middleman.
2. USATF stated in Orlando that the 3rd place finisher cannot himself go chase the 2:08:10 standard.
3. I'd say his chances are less than 20% because while he is in the correct place NOW in the WA road to Paris list, when you have 60+ sub 2:09 guys running Tokyo soon, plus add in other fast spring marathons, Lenny will move lower on the list.
Sorry US but these are the facts and reality. We're likely sending only 2 guys.
While your point about sponsorship is well taken, I disagree with 3, because all the US guys could also be chasing sub 2:09s as well if they were incentivized to do so. If USATF gave $50,000 for top American in London or for a sub 60:00 min half marathon or sub 2:08:10, I think Panning, Albertson, etc. would be chasing it. I do not think these guys make a lot of money.
The USATF is a mess and still has not clarified what the selection will be.
But if Korir runs a 2:08:10, you are saying they would just send two people eventhough 3 are qualified. Don't be silly. They would surely send him. People would be in uproar if they didn't.
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pointcalculations wrote:
Tokyo being so deep actually hurts people trying to qualify. You gets tons of bonus placing points for Gold Label events. But if you're not in the Top 15 (or something like that) you don't get any points.) Fauble has 1179 points, the next person (70th) has 1163. So they'd need a 1195 point performance to tie him. With no bonus points, that's worth about 2:08:03.
People further down the list are so many points behind they'd need to run like 2:06 to pass Fauble, unless they place high at Tokyo, London, or Boston. Maybe a few will, but the odds of these races being filled at the top with random runners from small countries is unlikely. So, there's a very, very good chance that United States keeps a 3rd spot. (People aren't going to score enough with 1/2 marathon times. They'd need to run under 60:00 for ~1195 points and the caliber of guys that far down the list aren't going to do that.)
Actually I made an error because the 70th person just happened to have two performances of the same score, but other people already have one good performance so their 2nd wouldn't need to be quite as good. After going through all the lists, it actually doesn't change the times needed by that much, but if the Seoul Marathon maintain a GW label this year, people can pick up lots of points from that without actually running super fast. So, it actually may end up coming down to just a couple spots rather than a 'very, very good' chance.
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pointcalculations wrote:
Tokyo being so deep actually hurts people trying to qualify. You gets tons of bonus placing points for Gold Label events. But if you're not in the Top 15 (or something like that) you don't get any points.) Fauble has 1179 points, the next person (70th) has 1163. So they'd need a 1195 point performance to tie him. With no bonus points, that's worth about 2:08:03.
People further down the list are so many points behind they'd need to run like 2:06 to pass Fauble, unless they place high at Tokyo, London, or Boston. Maybe a few will, but the odds of these races being filled at the top with random runners from small countries is unlikely. So, there's a very, very good chance that United States keeps a 3rd spot. (People aren't going to score enough with 1/2 marathon times. They'd need to run under 60:00 for ~1195 points and the caliber of guys that far down the list aren't going to do that.)
Yeah, I agree with this. I'd be more worried about London than Tokyo and not worried at all about half marathons, as you point out it really requires a 60:0X to pass Fauble with a half. London is closer to the Olympics, so those running the Olympics (and therefore a lot of the top guys) will not be there meaning there will be more spots up for grabs for the lower runners. Its a fast course and a mid 2:08 and a top 10 finish should be possible for some of these guys. If the US sent a bunch of guys to London though, it would hurt everyone elses chances if we had some guys in the top 15.
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MatthewXCountry wrote:
Korir's spot in the Olympics is looking good, but still far from gauranteed. He could run a fast marathon in a few months to gaurantee it, but that might hurt his performance at the olympics.
An idea, what if Korir's sponsor offered a cash bonus to the first US marathoner, who was not in the top 3 at the trials, to run 2:08:10 or faster before May 5th. If no one runs the qualifying time by May 5th, but a non-top 3 finisher at the trials passes Korir on the road to Paris list, the prize goes to the highest ranked American (out of the non-top 3 finishers at the trials) on the road to paris list.
Right now there is little incentive for US marathon runners to gaurantee we get a third spot (except for Korir). It is definitely in Korir's interest to give fellow Americans who missed out a push to go get him that third spot.
Seville,rather than Tokyo will have a bigger effect on the rankings.
Tons of fast people being announced,could be the deepest spring race.
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Birkoboy wrote:
MatthewXCountry wrote:
Korir's spot in the Olympics is looking good, but still far from gauranteed. He could run a fast marathon in a few months to gaurantee it, but that might hurt his performance at the olympics.
An idea, what if Korir's sponsor offered a cash bonus to the first US marathoner, who was not in the top 3 at the trials, to run 2:08:10 or faster before May 5th. If no one runs the qualifying time by May 5th, but a non-top 3 finisher at the trials passes Korir on the road to Paris list, the prize goes to the highest ranked American (out of the non-top 3 finishers at the trials) on the road to paris list.
Right now there is little incentive for US marathon runners to gaurantee we get a third spot (except for Korir). It is definitely in Korir's interest to give fellow Americans who missed out a push to go get him that third spot.
Seville,rather than Tokyo will have a bigger effect on the rankings.
Tons of fast people being announced,could be the deepest spring race.
But tons of fast people being announced actually makes it harder to qualify via the road to Paris list. It means you need to hit sub 2:08:15 to even have a remote chance of passing Fauble, since a 2:08+ time won't get you any placing points if it is outside of the top 15.
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Actually its top 12 for bonus points (for GW events). Here is the break down
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pointcalculations wrote:
Actually its top 12 for bonus points (for GW events). Here is the break down
Loving this whole conversation. Reminds me of when Japanese tennis hadn’t had a man with a rank better than 45 in their history. They hatched a plan to make it happen
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MatthewXCountry wrote:
consider wrote:
Exactly, and therein lies the problem.
Lots of guys other than Rupp are capable to push Korir in via the ranking.
So if the prize was say $50,000 for the first man to break 2:08:10 (or finish top non-qualifying American ahead of Korir on the road to paris list) I think the incentive would be pretty big for folks like Fauble (69th road to paris), Albertson (76th road to paris), Panning, Kibet (just behind CJ Albertson in road to paris), Simbassa (top American at Houston, 60:37 half PB, 11th at trials, sitting 72nd in road to Paris), Chalenga (75th road to paris) etc to go for it. It definitely won't take a 2:08:10 to make the road to Paris top list. If any of these guys runs a 2:09 low, it would push Korir in most likely.
I can't wait for any of these you mention to enter a half on a flat course. March 3 in Rome is not an option, it is a point to point. Is 50k seriously the best incentive? Would nobody have the national pride to motivate them to be able to watch a third countryman run the Olympic marathon?
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Aussiestatman wrote:
MatthewXCountry wrote:
Lots of guys other than Rupp are capable to push Korir in via the ranking.
So if the prize was say $50,000 for the first man to break 2:08:10 (or finish top non-qualifying American ahead of Korir on the road to paris list) I think the incentive would be pretty big for folks like Fauble (69th road to paris), Albertson (76th road to paris), Panning, Kibet (just behind CJ Albertson in road to paris), Simbassa (top American at Houston, 60:37 half PB, 11th at trials, sitting 72nd in road to Paris), Chalenga (75th road to paris) etc to go for it. It definitely won't take a 2:08:10 to make the road to Paris top list. If any of these guys runs a 2:09 low, it would push Korir in most likely.
I can't wait for any of these you mention to enter a half on a flat course. March 3 in Rome is not an option, it is a point to point. Is 50k seriously the best incentive? Would nobody have the national pride to motivate them to be able to watch a third countryman run the Olympic marathon?
There is a name for a patriotic effort to do this. In Australian folklore, it’s called ‘doing a Dubler’.
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