First part is correct, odds of losing to Jake and Josh the last two times they raced are .04%.
But assuming that 98% are his winning odds against one of them, the odds of going 8-1 in a total of 9 races are 15.3% (9-0 would be 83.4%) and the odds of going 6-1 in 7 races are 12.4% (7-0 would be 86.8%).
Mathematicians of LetsRun.com, can someone tell me if the odds are that he beats Josh and Jake 98 times out of 100, what are the odds that he's lost to both of them in the last race he ran against them?
Also if he wins 98 times out of 100 if they ran a million times, what are the odds he's already lost 1 of 9 races vs Kerr at 1500 in his life and 1 of 7 against Wightman since 2019?
One other thing I forgot to put in the article is in it he rules out doing the 1500, 5000, 10,000 triple this year.
"Yes, it's not possible. It will be difficult with three exercises with such a hectic schedule," said Jakob.
In reality, I'd say the triple is more doable than it is for him to expect to beat Kerr and Wightman 98 times out of 100 (now he might beat them that many times if it was rabbitted).
If, before this last race, his odds of beating Jake and Josh them were 98/100, that makes his odds of losing to Jake and Josh 2/100. Assuming he meant this 2/100 odds of losing were to the unit [Jake and Josh], that would (overgeneralizing) make his odds of losing to either of them (root(2)/10 (or about 14%) (assuming they're equally good and always race together).
If he meant that his odds of losing to Jake was 2% and his odds of losing to Josh was 2%, this generalizes to all cases. The odds of him losing to Jake and Josh the last times he raced them would be .04%.
Assuming that 98/100 are his true winning odds against just Josh, the odds of going 8-1 against Josh would be ~1.7%.
Assuming that 98/100 are his true winning odds against just Jake, the odds of going 6-1 against Jake would be ~1.7%.
Assuming that root2/10 are his true winning odds against Josh, the odds of going 8-1 would be about 4%.
Assuming that root2/10 are his true winning odds against Jake, the odds of going 6-1 would be about 5.6%.
These last 4 calculations are a bit misleading because I was too lazy to do proper statistical analyses, but you get the idea.
First part is correct, odds of losing to Jake and Josh the last two times they raced are .04%.
But assuming that 98% are his winning odds against one of them, the odds of going 8-1 in a total of 9 races are 15.3% (9-0 would be 83.4%) and the odds of going 6-1 in 7 races are 12.4% (7-0 would be 86.8%).
All Jakob did was after congratulating Kerr on the win say he didn't particularly look forward to a rematch with him as if Jakob didn't win, someone else had to win and it was Kerr. I honestly don't have a problem with any of this talk. What do you want Jakob to do when he's asked a question - answer it untruthfully or dodge it? I hate those type of inauthentic interviews. Dude is honest and real.
Amen I've never understood why people got so riled up over the "next guy" comment. There were at least 3 other people who could've been the champion that day, and Kerr was just the one that stepped up. If the race was a day later, Nordas/Nuguse/Kipsang could've been the champ. Kerr hasn't shown he can run 3:28, much less 3:27.1. Jakob wasn't looking forward to a rematch because Kerr is just another 3:29 guy. Imo Jakob was proven right when Nuguse smacked Kerr in the DL final.
Josh kerr did not run a 52 last lap 😂. I timed the last lap multiple times and it was consistently across the board close to 53.6 with Jakob right around or just under 54
Josh kerr did not run a 52 last lap 😂. I timed the last lap multiple times and it was consistently across the board close to 53.6 with Jakob right around or just under 54
Thank you. You're the only other person I've seen question those dodgy splits from Budapest.
Between 1100 and 1200, some guys were splitting 11 or 12 seconds apparently. With 400m to go? Mental.
How many runners could live with him running 4:43 over 2k? 7:54 over 2 miles? 3:27.14 1500m? 3:43 mile?
He is clear and away over 3K/2miles vs. the usual suspects. The next best there is Lamecha Girma and Mo Katir there. Can't see Katir winning a H2H, but Girma would be intriguing and I don't believe we've seen them face off. If they eliminated the Steeple tomorrow, I'd think he'd give Jakob a run for his money at those distances. For the mile and 1500, I think Yared can hang with him and Kerr in a championship race too.
There is zero chance of Girma running anywhere near 4:43, and he’s no better than Kejelcha (who is worse than Jakob) at 3k/2 mi.
Nuguse is the best bet at 2k and he might run 4:46.
To your earlier comment, Jakob was almost 2 seconds faster than the next fastest guy in the Budapest field (3:27.1 vs 3:29.0). Surely that’s a larger margin than Tim had in Doha.
Jakob is officially a blowhard now. It was cute when he could back it up. But now we see he is a pretender. All talk and no action. Like a LetsRun poster. Someone needs to advise him to STFU and train.
OK now that I am rereading my post, who the hell could have taken it seriously? Yeah that is you Rojo. Jakob just had one of the top 5 running years we have seen in the last decade or so. However he will now become even more beatable as he has likely reached his ceiling.
The guy's averaged 58.9 secs per 400m for 2 miles. I would say yes, he could beat those two clowns 98 out of 100 times in any distance at or above 1500m. Probably 100/100 in distances 1501 meters and above.
The guy's averaged 58.9 secs per 400m for 2 miles. I would say yes, he could beat those two clowns 98 out of 100 times in any distance at or above 1500m. Probably 100/100 in distances 1501 meters and above.
That is not the way the sport operates though. We don’t hand out medals based on personal bests. Fitness is fluid also, so Jakob at his absolute best could beat them the majority of the time, but clearly Jakob is not always at his absolute best. Jakob is obviously quite beatable. Facts are stubborn things.
Make it 97/100 when we add in Tefera (unsurprisingly also in a championship setting)
Exactly. He wins 97/100 if those include paced Diamond League races, but he’s only won 1 out of his last 4 championship 1500m races.
This is about how often Jakob beats those guys in races. Not about how many 1st place finishes he has.
Even just looking at championship head-to-heads:
Jakob 3 Tefera 1
Jakob 3 Cheruiyot 1
Jakob 3 Wightman 1
Jakob 5 Kerr 1 (4-1 if you only want to look at the 1500, the other was European XC)
And in those races that Jakob lost, he was right behind them! Except for Cheruiyot in 2019. The same isn't true for most of Jakob's victories over them (eg. Jakob 1st, Jake 10th in Tokyo). So he is by far the best championship racer out of all of them.
Throw Diamond Leagues into the mix and you can see why he's so confident that he's better than these guys.
Exactly. He wins 97/100 if those include paced Diamond League races, but he’s only won 1 out of his last 4 championship 1500m races.
This is about how often Jakob beats those guys in races. Not about how many 1st place finishes he has.
Even just looking at championship head-to-heads:
Jakob 3 Tefera 1
Jakob 3 Cheruiyot 1
Jakob 3 Wightman 1
Jakob 5 Kerr 1 (4-1 if you only want to look at the 1500, the other was European XC)
And in those races that Jakob lost, he was right behind them! Except for Cheruiyot in 2019. The same isn't true for most of Jakob's victories over them (eg. Jakob 1st, Jake 10th in Tokyo). So he is by far the best championship racer out of all of them.
Throw Diamond Leagues into the mix and you can see why he's so confident that he's better than these guys.
Can you just show championship head to head results?
Jakob is a tremendous athlete, but this kind of talk is just so whiney. The 1500m is a crapshoot due to the kicks these guys have. Keeping it fast seems to be in his favor, but trying to run 3:27 after prelim and semi would be suicidal even for him. All the finalists can run 3:30 AND kick. So he ain't gonna win 98 of 100 championship races. Maybe 65 of 100 because he is really good.
He's the reigning Olympic champion. I missed the part where either of those Brits won an Olympic Gold.
More people remember Olympic champions than they do World champions. There are way more World champions than Olympic champions, it is actually pretty basic math.
Jakob has the lead on championship hardware against them. Feel free to provide objective data as to how he does not.
Tefera was not part of the conversation. So there really is no point to involving him when it was a dialogue regarding the Brits. You mine as well dig back to when Jakob was a teen, and bring in Tim C following your logic.
Lol acting like the peaking, training, competition, etc is any different in WC vs Olympics is one of the dumbest things. Same exact folks show up and peak for both.
Exactly. He wins 97/100 if those include paced Diamond League races, but he’s only won 1 out of his last 4 championship 1500m races.
Yeah its not like wightman and kerr weren’t paced either by him in any of these races… oh wait
I think you’re missing the point. No one disagrees he is the fittest of the 3. But if he had lead to run the kick out of those guys (which he does) how does he avoid them potentially getting paced by him and passing him at the end (he just had to pray they don’t have it or mistime it).
I take it that Jakob was saying the 98/100 thing as a euphemism, but to be honest it’s clear he’s just masking his weakness in championship racing. The odds that the two races he just “happened to lose for mathematical reasons” were both the world final is laughable. Obviously his weakest trait is championship racing. He’s still a doggone good 1500 runner, but people figured out and can exploit it. To me, he knows it it’s his weakness, but for whatever reason he won’t publicly acknowledge it.
But it feels like Jakob is always kinda putting on a show. According to Rojo’s article, Jakob pretends not to watch/read the news, generally be aware of stuff online, etc because he’s too focused on running. I am 100% sure Jakob knew the stuff Kerr was saying and had prepared what he was gonna say in this interview about it. It’s just funny he feels the need to pretend about this stuff like he wants us to think he’s this Superman type person who has no flaws and doesn’t care about the “news”. Idk, just interesting.
I take it that Jakob was saying the 98/100 thing as a euphemism, but to be honest it’s clear he’s just masking his weakness in championship racing. The odds that the two races he just “happened to lose for mathematical reasons” were both the world final is laughable. Obviously his weakest trait is championship racing. He’s still a doggone good 1500 runner, but people figured out and can exploit it. To me, he knows it it’s his weakness, but for whatever reason he won’t publicly acknowledge it.
But it feels like Jakob is always kinda putting on a show. According to Rojo’s article, Jakob pretends not to watch/read the news, generally be aware of stuff online, etc because he’s too focused on running. I am 100% sure Jakob knew the stuff Kerr was saying and had prepared what he was gonna say in this interview about it. It’s just funny he feels the need to pretend about this stuff like he wants us to think he’s this Superman type person who has no flaws and doesn’t care about the “news”. Idk, just interesting.
You seem to have a lot of good takes. Like you say much of what I want to say without being such an azzhole like me.
Exactly. He wins 97/100 if those include paced Diamond League races, but he’s only won 1 out of his last 4 championship 1500m races.
This is about how often Jakob beats those guys in races. Not about how many 1st place finishes he has.
Even just looking at championship head-to-heads:
Jakob 3 Tefera 1
Jakob 3 Cheruiyot 1
Jakob 3 Wightman 1
Jakob 5 Kerr 1 (4-1 if you only want to look at the 1500, the other was European XC)
And in those races that Jakob lost, he was right behind them! Except for Cheruiyot in 2019. The same isn't true for most of Jakob's victories over them (eg. Jakob 1st, Jake 10th in Tokyo). So he is by far the best championship racer out of all of them.
Throw Diamond Leagues into the mix and you can see why he's so confident that he's better than these guys.
Eh even that is too simplistic, because for some of those wins vs them he was able to avoid leading because of Cheruyiot.
the relevant question for the next 2-4 years is this: if he is forced to lead early, can he rub fast enough so they don’t out kick him? He is not 3-1 or 5-1 under those circumstances and I don’t think we know if he can improve the odds.
Yeah its not like wightman and kerr weren’t paced either by him in any of these races… oh wait
I think you’re missing the point. No one disagrees he is the fittest of the 3. But if he had lead to run the kick out of those guys (which he does) how does he avoid them potentially getting paced by him and passing him at the end (he just had to pray they don’t have it or mistime it).
The point is that you cannot “expose” someones weakness of being pacer reliant when you yourself are being paced by that guy lol. Jakob does not have to pace, and you don’t know if he could win in a slower paced race. Judging by your other responses, you like to make a lot of assumptions for thing we don’t know.