He still hasn't gone under the US HS record. You know, the one he could have easily broken back at NP. If it was a mere formality back then, it would have been trivial his Freshman track season . Still hasn't gone under Chapa's time. Neither has any other NP runner, still in HS or since.
I know exactly what this post is about. Whether or not he could go under Chapa's time now or not (gotta think he could), I don't believe he could come close while still in HS. I am another who remembers many a thread - the first page of the Board had 10 separate NP threads at one point - in which posters suggested that partucular record was soft. Many posts said it was possibly the weakest HS record on the books.
So, it is very true that many of you reading the Board thought any one of these teenage stars could have broken it easily - particularly Nico, who seems to be more slow-twitch or less of a mid-D runner than some of his peers. I remember all this and always thought that Chapa's mark is very strong and that's why it has lasted decades despite some notable guys including Rupp taking a serious crack at it.
I don't disagree with any of you. Nico can easily go faster than the HS record now. But the fact that no US true Freshman seems to be able to would suggest that nobody in recent years or otherwise was even in the ball park while still elegible for HS records. Not sure why this is important, but I am certainly aware of what this post was getting at. Young's pretty darn good, but if you look at where he was 4 years ago, Rudy at that age was better. And I remember post after post in thread after thread saying the opposite.
I think last race will have been his peak. In the last couple of weeks he only jogged a couple of miles per day.
I mean it's January, why would he peak now of all times when he has intentions to run at the Trials. Makes no sense.
As for the Sub 27 10K...I think it's possible. This 12:57 Indoor 5K + 28:01 XC 10K Proves he has the engine to run very close if not under. Who knows tho, Running is unpredictable.
Trials are like 5-6 months away, he now has the standard. It would be a very very long season to keep on the gas pedal several more months. Now he can get a slight reset the next couple weeks, get into good enough form to give it a good go at NCAA indoor in early March, and then really get after it again after that going into the summer
I think last race will have been his peak. In the last couple of weeks he only jogged a couple of miles per day.
I mean it's January, why would he peak now of all times when he has intentions to run at the Trials. Makes no sense.
As for the Sub 27 10K...I think it's possible. This 12:57 Indoor 5K + 28:01 XC 10K Proves he has the engine to run very close if not under. Who knows tho, Running is unpredictable.
26:11 is right around the corner… Maybe if all races going forward should be held indoors at BU … and extra carbon plating in his footwear.
Trials are like 5-6 months away, he now has the standard. It would be a very very long season to keep on the gas pedal several more months. Now he can get a slight reset the next couple weeks, get into good enough form to give it a good go at NCAA indoor in early March, and then really get after it again after that going into the summer
Depends on what one would consider being "at their peak", Grant Fisher made an interesting case out of this on the letsrun pod back in 2022 after he hit 26:33 10K on how there is Championship fitness and time-trial fitness. Difference being that in Championship races one focuses more on their intervals for their closing speeds.
I don't think Nico is at his peak because there was no incentive to risk it all in January especially in an NCAA meet where there is no prize money. There is a possibility he hasn't differentiated his peak fitness (AKA was his 12:57 an all-out effort or was the Sub 13 his goal but not one he was risking injury for) - That is yet to be seen.
Sub-27 10K would be interesting to watch especially given how young Nico is. We shall see: Just hope he doesn't burn out before 25 like many great would-be's have in American Running History.
He still hasn't gone under the US HS record. You know, the one he could have easily broken back at NP. If it was a mere formality back then, it would have been trivial his Freshman track season . Still hasn't gone under Chapa's time. Neither has any other NP runner, still in HS or since.
I know exactly what this post is about. Whether or not he could go under Chapa's time now or not (gotta think he could), I don't believe he could come close while still in HS. I am another who remembers many a thread - the first page of the Board had 10 separate NP threads at one point - in which posters suggested that partucular record was soft. Many posts said it was possibly the weakest HS record on the books.
So, it is very true that many of you reading the Board thought any one of these teenage stars could have broken it easily - particularly Nico, who seems to be more slow-twitch or less of a mid-D runner than some of his peers. I remember all this and always thought that Chapa's mark is very strong and that's why it has lasted decades despite some notable guys including Rupp taking a serious crack at it.
I don't disagree with any of you. Nico can easily go faster than the HS record now. But the fact that no US true Freshman seems to be able to would suggest that nobody in recent years or otherwise was even in the ball park while still elegible for HS records. Not sure why this is important, but I am certainly aware of what this post was getting at. Young's pretty darn good, but if you look at where he was 4 years ago, Rudy at that age was better. And I remember post after post in thread after thread saying the opposite.
Rupp was only 7 months older than Chapa was when he ran 28:15. Chapa took the 10000m very seriously, and his 28:32 in April was the peak of his season. He had a mediocre, for him, HS track season, and he ran about 30:30 at the OT. Rupp’s HS 10000m effort was in August after a long track season.
I would say yes based off of where Chris Solinsky, Rupp, and Sammy Chalenga were when they ran that 10k in 2010 or 11.
But it being an Olympic year I don’t see him getting a real crack at an attempt.
He is going to run NCAA indoors. He is going to run NCAA outdoors 1st rounds and NCAA finals and he’s going to run the Olympic trials.
That be NCAA cross in Nov.
Sub 13 in January
NCAAs in March against a 13:01 guy.
March or April- A 10k to qualify for NCAA’s (probably 28:40 ish this year with the Covid eligibility kids hanging on?) Maybe try for the trials standard
10k got so much faster than I remembered. Even in 2019 29:20 would qualify from west; 29:40 from east. Obviously spikes help but not by 40s.
For other events (east v west), they were basically identical in 800, 1500, but west was stronger in 5000 and 10000. 3k steeple also was incredibly weak, with times in the 9:0x range qualifying. I wonder if fast but not the fastest (think rank ~20 in the country) realized they can move off the flat and become top 5. I also think proximity to certain (Stanford area) meets makes west faster.
I would say yes based off of where Chris Solinsky, Rupp, and Sammy Chalenga were when they ran that 10k in 2010 or 11.
But it being an Olympic year I don’t see him getting a real crack at an attempt.
He is going to run NCAA indoors. He is going to run NCAA outdoors 1st rounds and NCAA finals and he’s going to run the Olympic trials.
That be NCAA cross in Nov.
Sub 13 in January
NCAAs in March against a 13:01 guy.
March or April- A 10k to qualify for NCAA’s (probably 28:40 ish this year with the Covid eligibility kids hanging on?) Maybe try for the trials standard
May 5k-10k or just one of those atfirst rounds.
June NCAA’s.
Not a whole lot of time to go for a Sub 27:00.
I think he’d be very close
Those are all just vastly different athletes in different systems to me. I trust the Bowerman system preparing guys roughly equally for the 5/10K. McGorty ran 27:18 after 13:09 at BU in 2022. Grijalva only 27:42 last year after looking quite good indoors. And Woody running 12:51 and closing 3ks hard but just eking out 27:0x. We’ll see if those are isolated or Mike Smith’s training is more geared to maximal 5000m performance, strong under distance performances, and tactical 10k success. That can be different than time-trials in a 10,000 (something Grant Fisher has differentiated in interviews).
It’s rare for a high schooler to run a track 10,000. That’s why Chapa’s record hasn’t been broken. There also aren’t very many track 10k’s.
But by your logic, there are some who could have, right? That has been the debate for decades now.
One camp: Not every high school runner, but the best of them, could break it if they had the opportunity. Hold a CIF (or whatever the CA federation is called) 10,000 and you'd see it broken every couple years.
The other side: No it wouldn't be. The record is as old as it is because it is very impressive and nobody has come along who could break it.
Although the poster I'm replying to sides with the first, I have to go with the second. Saying Nico could do it NOW is an unremarkable claim. I don't think he's under 27 right now, but he's certainly under 28.
By the way, Sound Running puts on events, such as The Ten in Southern California. Not right in Newbury Park's backyard, but given those guys traveled across the country for selected events, close enough that the travel was not the limiting factor. They could have driven there and back without an overnight (not that hotel costs ever stopped them).
Nico in high school was very high profile and could have easily gotten a lane in the B Heat. He and the Newbury crowd in general DID care about high school records. He absolutely had the opportunity to go for if he wanted it. I believe he has 27-mid ability right now, but not 28-low 4 years ago. Just my 2 cents.
It’s rare for a high schooler to run a track 10,000. That’s why Chapa’s record hasn’t been broken. There also aren’t very many track 10k’s.
But by your logic, there are some who could have, right? That has been the debate for decades now.
One camp: Not every high school runner, but the best of them, could break it if they had the opportunity. Hold a CIF (or whatever the CA federation is called) 10,000 and you'd see it broken every couple years.
The other side: No it wouldn't be. The record is as old as it is because it is very impressive and nobody has come along who could break it.
Although the poster I'm replying to sides with the first, I have to go with the second. Saying Nico could do it NOW is an unremarkable claim. I don't think he's under 27 right now, but he's certainly under 28.
By the way, Sound Running puts on events, such as The Ten in Southern California. Not right in Newbury Park's backyard, but given those guys traveled across the country for selected events, close enough that the travel was not the limiting factor. They could have driven there and back without an overnight (not that hotel costs ever stopped them).
Nico in high school was very high profile and could have easily gotten a lane in the B Heat. He and the Newbury crowd in general DID care about high school records. He absolutely had the opportunity to go for if he wanted it. I believe he has 27-mid ability right now, but not 28-low 4 years ago. Just my 2 cents.
No, most of the best HS runners don’t run 10000m. In 1976, the OT qualifier was considered soft, so Chapa, Hulst and McChesney went for it. They are 1,2,4 on the all time list and ran 7 out of the 10 fastest times.
Lex Young’s 13:35 equates to 28:17 and there should be no doubt that in the right race, he could have broken Chapa’s record.
I thought this even before Nicos interview after his 12:57 last night. He mentioned wanting to run a 10K. I hope he runs the 10 at the Sound running meet in mid March but I think it's pretty close to NCAA indoors. Is it crazy to think Nico could go sub 27 for 10000?
He can for sure run sub 30:00. I mean he just ran 4,999.99M in 12:57.
But by your logic, there are some who could have, right? That has been the debate for decades now.
One camp: Not every high school runner, but the best of them, could break it if they had the opportunity. Hold a CIF (or whatever the CA federation is called) 10,000 and you'd see it broken every couple years.
The other side: No it wouldn't be. The record is as old as it is because it is very impressive and nobody has come along who could break it.
Although the poster I'm replying to sides with the first, I have to go with the second. Saying Nico could do it NOW is an unremarkable claim. I don't think he's under 27 right now, but he's certainly under 28.
By the way, Sound Running puts on events, such as The Ten in Southern California. Not right in Newbury Park's backyard, but given those guys traveled across the country for selected events, close enough that the travel was not the limiting factor. They could have driven there and back without an overnight (not that hotel costs ever stopped them).
Nico in high school was very high profile and could have easily gotten a lane in the B Heat. He and the Newbury crowd in general DID care about high school records. He absolutely had the opportunity to go for if he wanted it. I believe he has 27-mid ability right now, but not 28-low 4 years ago. Just my 2 cents.
No, most of the best HS runners don’t run 10000m. In 1976, the OT qualifier was considered soft, so Chapa, Hulst and McChesney went for it. They are 1,2,4 on the all time list and ran 7 out of the 10 fastest times.
Lex Young’s 13:35 equates to 28:17 and there should be no doubt that in the right race, he could have broken Chapa’s record.
I think there remains some doubt that Lex could have broken 28:32 last year. High schoolers will almost uniformly be weaker at 10k than 5k just due to lifetime miles and training focus. We know Tyrone Gorze ran 13:45 and then 29:00 4 weeks later in a record attempt. We know Galen Rupp ran 13:37 and then 29:09 a week later. And the Young twins didn’t set the world on fire in their first NCAA XC seasons. But yes, he could have given the record a scare and have had some chance at breaking it.
To the poster speculating that Young has 27-mid ability now but not 28-low ability 4 years ago: 27:10 now and 28:30 in the spring of 2020 seems reasonable to me. He was dominating HS competition as a senior, ran 7:56i in February, and by the time the “2020” NCAA XC Championships came around in March of ‘21 he placed 4th, adapting to the demands of 10k XC better than any American freshman has in over a decade.
I have always questioned posters saying that Nico is obviously a born marathoner and should move up as soon as he graduates, and I figure his recent results will make them think twice about that. His ideal distances may very well be 3k/5k, and Mike Smith may recognize that. Sure, he’s lacked the necessary closing speed in the past, but it looks as if that may be coming around.
It would be cool to see him target a fast 10,000, but given the demands of the 3 NCAA seasons + the Olympic Trials, it’s probably wise to run neither “The Ten” (3 days before NCAA Indoors…c’mon) or the 10,000 at Regionals/Nationals. If he runs it at all this year, he should just target an OT qualifier in late March or April and then have that in his back pocket.
No, most of the best HS runners don’t run 10000m. In 1976, the OT qualifier was considered soft, so Chapa, Hulst and McChesney went for it. They are 1,2,4 on the all time list and ran 7 out of the 10 fastest times.
Lex Young’s 13:35 equates to 28:17 and there should be no doubt that in the right race, he could have broken Chapa’s record.
I think there remains some doubt that Lex could have broken 28:32 last year. High schoolers will almost uniformly be weaker at 10k than 5k just due to lifetime miles and training focus. We know Tyrone Gorze ran 13:45 and then 29:00 4 weeks later in a record attempt. We know Galen Rupp ran 13:37 and then 29:09 a week later. And the Young twins didn’t set the world on fire in their first NCAA XC seasons. But yes, he could have given the record a scare and have had some chance at breaking it.
To the poster speculating that Young has 27-mid ability now but not 28-low ability 4 years ago: 27:10 now and 28:30 in the spring of 2020 seems reasonable to me. He was dominating HS competition as a senior, ran 7:56i in February, and by the time the “2020” NCAA XC Championships came around in March of ‘21 he placed 4th, adapting to the demands of 10k XC better than any American freshman has in over a decade.
I have always questioned posters saying that Nico is obviously a born marathoner and should move up as soon as he graduates, and I figure his recent results will make them think twice about that. His ideal distances may very well be 3k/5k, and Mike Smith may recognize that. Sure, he’s lacked the necessary closing speed in the past, but it looks as if that may be coming around.
It would be cool to see him target a fast 10,000, but given the demands of the 3 NCAA seasons + the Olympic Trials, it’s probably wise to run neither “The Ten” (3 days before NCAA Indoors…c’mon) or the 10,000 at Regionals/Nationals. If he runs it at all this year, he should just target an OT qualifier in late March or April and then have that in his back pocket.
Agree 100%. I was actually thinking about looking up Rupp's 5k and 10k since that's probably a better conversion than WA tables for the Youngs. So thanks. Being slower than Rupp at 5 would suggest he'd be slower as well at 10.... Unless he's really suited to longer events, which leads me to my next point. I also think this poster mqy be right on about his best event(s).
Many will claim he hasn't had the opportunity to run a 10, but every Conference, Regional, and of course, Nationals has one. He also could - and could have in high school - run a non-NCAA event such as Sound Running or an invitational pro meet. He's likely running 1500-5000, with the longer end of that range being most important, because it's what he's best at. In this case, Rupp would have a bigger gap at the longer distance since Rupp was certainly more ideally suited to the 10k than shorter events.
Smith has influence over him and would have been arm-twisting for 10k for years now if he thought that's his destiny. The fact that he hasn't may not mean much but it doesn't suggest the HS record would have been a formality. Quite the opposite, in fact. As far as his brothers or any other Newbury runner - or any HS star ... Those who could realistically break the record often try to. Rupp and Ritz, for example. Not that caliber, but Stinson also has a HS 10k PR.
But here's an even better way to look at it. This was mentioned above, but those best at longer events would start training for 10k immediately after HS graduation. The NCAA XC Finals are that distance and this level of runner gets to that meet. By June, they've had a year of continuous 10k-oriented training if, in fact, that is viewed by the runner himself and knowledgable odservers such as Mike Smith as the primary event. Any who could have done it in HS couls pretty easily do so a year later. The day tons of true Freshman go under Chapa's time will be the day I even start to consider that his record is soft.
No, most of the best HS runners don’t run 10000m. In 1976, the OT qualifier was considered soft, so Chapa, Hulst and McChesney went for it. They are 1,2,4 on the all time list and ran 7 out of the 10 fastest times.
Lex Young’s 13:35 equates to 28:17 and there should be no doubt that in the right race, he could have broken Chapa’s record.
I think there remains some doubt that Lex could have broken 28:32 last year. High schoolers will almost uniformly be weaker at 10k than 5k just due to lifetime miles and training focus. We know Tyrone Gorze ran 13:45 and then 29:00 4 weeks later in a record attempt. We know Galen Rupp ran 13:37 and then 29:09 a week later. And the Young twins didn’t set the world on fire in their first NCAA XC seasons. But yes, he could have given the record a scare and have had some chance at breaking it.
To the poster speculating that Young has 27-mid ability now but not 28-low ability 4 years ago: 27:10 now and 28:30 in the spring of 2020 seems reasonable to me. He was dominating HS competition as a senior, ran 7:56i in February, and by the time the “2020” NCAA XC Championships came around in March of ‘21 he placed 4th, adapting to the demands of 10k XC better than any American freshman has in over a decade.
I have always questioned posters saying that Nico is obviously a born marathoner and should move up as soon as he graduates, and I figure his recent results will make them think twice about that. His ideal distances may very well be 3k/5k, and Mike Smith may recognize that. Sure, he’s lacked the necessary closing speed in the past, but it looks as if that may be coming around.
It would be cool to see him target a fast 10,000, but given the demands of the 3 NCAA seasons + the Olympic Trials, it’s probably wise to run neither “The Ten” (3 days before NCAA Indoors…c’mon) or the 10,000 at Regionals/Nationals. If he runs it at all this year, he should just target an OT qualifier in late March or April and then have that in his back pocket.
The Ten is actually after NCAA’s this year so he could end up giving it a shot. Blanks and Robinson too.
I think there remains some doubt that Lex could have broken 28:32 last year. High schoolers will almost uniformly be weaker at 10k than 5k just due to lifetime miles and training focus. We know Tyrone Gorze ran 13:45 and then 29:00 4 weeks later in a record attempt. We know Galen Rupp ran 13:37 and then 29:09 a week later. And the Young twins didn’t set the world on fire in their first NCAA XC seasons. But yes, he could have given the record a scare and have had some chance at breaking it.
To the poster speculating that Young has 27-mid ability now but not 28-low ability 4 years ago: 27:10 now and 28:30 in the spring of 2020 seems reasonable to me. He was dominating HS competition as a senior, ran 7:56i in February, and by the time the “2020” NCAA XC Championships came around in March of ‘21 he placed 4th, adapting to the demands of 10k XC better than any American freshman has in over a decade.
I have always questioned posters saying that Nico is obviously a born marathoner and should move up as soon as he graduates, and I figure his recent results will make them think twice about that. His ideal distances may very well be 3k/5k, and Mike Smith may recognize that. Sure, he’s lacked the necessary closing speed in the past, but it looks as if that may be coming around.
It would be cool to see him target a fast 10,000, but given the demands of the 3 NCAA seasons + the Olympic Trials, it’s probably wise to run neither “The Ten” (3 days before NCAA Indoors…c’mon) or the 10,000 at Regionals/Nationals. If he runs it at all this year, he should just target an OT qualifier in late March or April and then have that in his back pocket.
The Ten is actually after NCAA’s this year so he could end up giving it a shot. Blanks and Robinson too.
Week after, yeah. Would be somewhat akin to doing that first BU meet after XC Nationals.
The Ten is actually after NCAA’s this year so he could end up giving it a shot. Blanks and Robinson too.
Week after, yeah. Would be somewhat akin to doing that first BU meet after XC Nationals.
Ah, thanks. I googled it and the top result read “The TEN will take place on March 5th…” and I didn’t even click on the link, but that must have been last year. Its being a week after NCAAs obviously makes it a lot more feasible. In that case it seems like the smart move is to target a mini-peak that spans NCAA indoors and the 10k, and then recover/get some base training in before ramping up again for June.
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