Running_Far wrote:
Jacob is super talented, probably the fastest 1500m runner in the field.
But... in a World Championship he hasnt won, and the Olympics he had a rabiit for almost all the race.
On paper, Jacob wins more often than not, but the reality is Kerr CAN beat him. Whiteman did beat him. Naguse isn't far behind. And we're certain to see bolters peak and do well too.
I think Kerr is 100% right that Jacob is vulnerable to a sit and kick unless he can improve his last 200/300m. And I wouldn't be surprised if Jacobs injuries are a result of a change to his training....
And let's be honest, the more talk about it, the better for the sport. It isn't as if Kerr is a wannabe, he's literally the reigning World Champ.
I have just rewatched WC 1500m 2023 and Lausanne 1500m 2023 (both starring Josh and Jakob); see links below…
I get it that you and many others (including Kerr) thinks Jakob is more vulnerable in an unpaced race, and should work on his kick speed.
First of all: Josh didn’t out kick Jakob in the WC final, he just held the pace better over a longer (final) distance. And the same with Wightman the year before (although he had a massive shift in the speed 250 m before the finish… ) In both cases Jakob got out run, not out kicked, in my opinion. So I really don’t think a better 200 / 400/ 800m pb for Jakob would have helped -it’s about who has something left in the tank the last 100meters…
One could say Jakob loses unpaced races because he uses to much energy by being the pacer himself. But this isn’t totally true -in WC 2023 he took the lead after 500m and front ran the rest. But take a look on the paced Lausanne Diamond league meet between Josh and Jakob -it’s not that extremely different: Jakob benefits from 500m longer pacing than in the WC, but Josh also benefits from the out strung field, and stays glued to Jakob’s back the entire race (and doesn’t have to run wide bends and fight in the field like in WC). -In my evaluation Jakob has a likely tough task (beating a glued Kerr) in Lausanne as in WC (a much worse tactically race by Kerr) -nevertheless he out runs Josh with nearly one second on the home straight in Lausanne…
Conclusion: I don’t think Jakob lost the WC because of any weaknesses on the homestretch -I think he lost because he was sick. And it doesn’t matter if people poses an argument of Kerr peaking better in the WC than in Lausanne (he was only a couple of tens of a second faster in WC than in Switzerland) and Jakob told media that he had had to down prioritise Lausanne because of altitude camp and a peak he had planned for Silesia 16 days later…