4:40 & 10-flat are roughly worth the same. Would guess a little slower than that with a mostly even 10:18 3200. But younger runners tend to be more speed oriented. If you were 30, I'd say something closer to 4:50 but you can probably run close to 4:40, depending on what your workouts look like.
I had a similar 3200 PR in high school just over 10 mins, but I was more of a speed oriented guy and I ran 4:29 for the mile when I was at my best. If you're more of an endurance runner, then 4:45-50 as some of the others are saying.
Which way do you see your strength? Speed vs endurance?
i am defintely more endurance.. my 800 pr is only 2:15
What do you think I can realistically run in my mile next Saturday?
Way too hard to say from this.
There are severly undertrained guys (running 20 miles per week or under coaches who don't know what they are doing) who if I saw that they ran a 10:18, I'd say they could run under 4:30, and then there are aerobic powerhouses, with no speed, running over 80 miles per week, who can barely run the mile much faster than their fastest mile split of their 3200.
Somewhere between 4:20 - 4:59.
You have to give us more info like your training schedule, and your PBs in different distances to get a narrower range.
my mile pr from last year was 4:56 and my 800 pb is 2:15...
i have been hitting 35-40mpw and doing tempos, speed, lactate threshold, etc
really a mix of everything
one long run each week from 8-10 miles
last year when i ran 4:56 i ran a 10:46 so I think I am much fitter than then
I agree with the mentions of 4:4X for the OP. Also no need to go bonkers first lap with your new found fitness. Congrats on the big PR and keep it up! I ran a 4:30 midway through track season the year I finished running 9:42 for 3200M so I think a 4:4X is a good progression and you will keep dropping.
i agree with the poster saying it's all about types. there is a metronome paced type who will run close to even splits. that would be over 5. there is an athletic type who will fade more, which i agree has 4:4x potential for one mile, but not beyond that. which are you?
i say this because to me at NCAA D3 level i felt like they could make serviceable average 10k/steeple/XC type midpack runners out of the metronome types who ran mid 17s in HS but at steady pace.
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