I ran fast enough to know what I'm talking about. When you're competing against people who can close a fast 5000m in 56 and if you can't be 100% sure that you can run away from the rest of the field solo, having a 59 as your fastest 400 means you have no shot at medaling.
Additional data point: When she ran 14:19, she was with the leaders with a lap to go. She finished seven seconds behind the winner. So she's not going to run away from anyone but Americans. In a fast race, she gets dusted over the final 400. In a slower race against the same world-class field, she would be even more out of contention once the kicking starts.
So on the one hand, yeah, she should work on top-end speed. On the other hand, how much can she really improve that apparent glitch in her arsenal? Her current coach could have done flying 150s all day and still would have been dropped by the good kickers.
I’m not sure what your example proves. In her 14:19, Monson ran as fast she possibly could through 11.5 laps and had nothing left for the last 400m. It surprises you that a runner capable of 14:00, that has world class middle distance speed, buried her over the last lap?
Running at 14:40 pace against Americans, she is going to be tough to beat.
I agree that 29:30 is reasonable, but it won't matter unless she can kick.
I would rather see her try running the 1500m more. She'd have a better chance at a medal as a 30:00 runner with a 3:57 1500m than a 29:30 runner with a 4:06.
The winners are closing in 59.00. Monson MIGHT be able to run 59 fresh.
She said that she ran 59 at the end of a workout where she averaged 4:43 for 4 x mile and ran a hard 600 as well. Even if she's not a kicker, there's no way that any 4:23 miler is running much slower than 55 in a fresh 400.
The above is incorrect. Some can run 4:15, for example, with only 57 400 speed. Guys like Bill Rodgers and Dick Beardsley, for example. So she might only be able to run 57-58.
I also look for Elly Henes to have big PRs this upcoming year and getting close to 14:20 or under 14:30 at the very least. She should also take considerable time off of her 10k PR.
Agree that Henes will improve in the 10k, but under 14:30? That would be a huge leap.
We just published a great interview Jon did with Alicia Monson.
After her record breaking 2023 (American records at 3k, 5k, & 10k) she's opening up 2024 with the 2 mile at Millrose. Then it's The TEN where she hopes to be the first American sub 30, and event talks about going...... 29:30!!!
Quote: "First of all, seeing 29 at the front would be huge, just because no American has ever gone under 30:00. We’ve kind of thrown around 29:30, but obviously that’s a lot easier said than done"
All of this to be ready for the 10,000 in Paris. She may not even run the 5,000.
She talks about training with Hellen Obiri, her speed, and trying to win her first USATF title.
She probably needs to be close to 29-flat for a medal. Gidey doesn't have a great kick but still is competitive, although her kick is probably still better than Monson
She probably needs to be close to 29-flat for a medal. Gidey doesn't have a great kick but still is competitive, although her kick is probably still better than Monson
Gidey has run 29:01 and her HM WR pace is faster than the pace for Monson’s 10K AR. In what universe is Monson going to out kick her?
I'd like to believe she's clean but those times and confidence merit heavy suspicion at least. What's her progression been like, realistic?
In 2020, at age 22, she ran her then best of 15:14. Now at age 25 she has run 14:19 and is talking about doing 14:45 twice in a 10000m. Her improvement has been astounding but perhaps not unprecedented.
I didn't realize she was already 22 when she ran 15:14. That is a huge leap in 3 years.
In the interview, she says she ran a 59 at the end of a workout. I don't think Monson's problem is her kick.
Reading the article, sounds like 59 flat is her top speed right now. Can that be right? Granted she does not train for speed.
She could train like a 400/80Om runner and hit the weight room, but otherwise, there’s no way she can improve her 400 speed. All she can do between now and Paris is to continue to improve her fitness.
She probably needs to be close to 29-flat for a medal. Gidey doesn't have a great kick but still is competitive, although her kick is probably still better than Monson
Gidey has run 29:01 and her HM WR pace is faster than the pace for Monson’s 10K AR. In what universe is Monson going to out kick her?
Possibly in a universe where she doesn't have to outkick her . . . because Gidey might not be in the 10k race.
Have you checked the Paris Oly t&f schedule?
Women's 10k is now at the end of the meet . . . on August 9th . . . in the afternoon.
Women's Marathon closes the Olympics . . . on August 11th . . . in the morning . . . 36 hours after the 10k.
Already there is speculation Hassan may do a track event then the marathon in Paris.
Possibly the same for Gidey.
If one or both attempt a track/marathon double . . . doesn't it make more sense to run the 5k first . . . where the final is on August 6th?
Or, just race the marathon?
If either of these scenarios plays out . . . and Alicia is a sub-30 runner going into Paris . . . and knowing Alicia is a very good hot weather runner so should be ok w/afternoon 10k race start . . . then she would have a very good opportunity to be in that top group w/Tsegay chasing home a medal . . .
Gidey has run 29:01 and her HM WR pace is faster than the pace for Monson’s 10K AR. In what universe is Monson going to out kick her?
If either of these scenarios plays out . . . and Alicia is a sub-30 runner going into Paris . . . and knowing Alicia is a very good hot weather runner so should be ok w/afternoon 10k race start . . . then she would have a very good opportunity to be in that top group w/Tsegay chasing home a medal . . .
Since when is Alicia Monson a very good hot weather runner?
TWO American long distance track runners I can call my favorite distance athletes: Grant Fisher and Alicia Monson. They both realized, trains, and actively targets breaking in the top 10 ALL TIME lists in order to have a true shot at a medal. You have to be that fit and have the endurance in order to be comfortable and utilize your speed when the kicking comes. Both have very good mile speed but neither has really been strong enough that they can TRULY have a chance once the last 400m hits, not even Grant Fisher but they know that and training to get the needed endurance to be able to kick the last lap. LOVE THOSE TWO and Alicia targeting possibly 29:30 oh yeah she would be a medal contender Can't wait for Grant and Alicia 2024 outdoor season.
Gidey has run 29:01 and her HM WR pace is faster than the pace for Monson’s 10K AR. In what universe is Monson going to out kick her?
Possibly in a universe where she doesn't have to outkick her . . . because Gidey might not be in the 10k race.
Have you checked the Paris Oly t&f schedule?
Women's 10k is now at the end of the meet . . . on August 9th . . . in the afternoon.
Women's Marathon closes the Olympics . . . on August 11th . . . in the morning . . . 36 hours after the 10k.
Already there is speculation Hassan may do a track event then the marathon in Paris.
Possibly the same for Gidey.
If one or both attempt a track/marathon double . . . doesn't it make more sense to run the 5k first . . . where the final is on August 6th?
Or, just race the marathon?
If either of these scenarios plays out . . . and Alicia is a sub-30 runner going into Paris . . . and knowing Alicia is a very good hot weather runner so should be ok w/afternoon 10k race start . . . then she would have a very good opportunity to be in that top group w/Tsegay chasing home a medal . . .
Your post is confusing. There are 5 days between the 10K and 5K which is more than enough rest for Gidey to run both. I do agree that Gidey can’t out kick Monson if she isn’t in the race.
All things being equal, Monson will not medal, or even be in the front group. If it turns out to be a fast pace, she is likely to drop off at 5000m or even earlier. If it’s a slow first 5000m, it could be like what Lopes did in 1976 where the second half is hammered and she gets dropped. Another scenario is where there are hard surges that she won’t be able to cover.
Monson is an outstanding runner but the East-Africans are just too fast.
Possibly in a universe where she doesn't have to outkick her . . . because Gidey might not be in the 10k race.
Have you checked the Paris Oly t&f schedule?
Women's 10k is now at the end of the meet . . . on August 9th . . . in the afternoon.
Women's Marathon closes the Olympics . . . on August 11th . . . in the morning . . . 36 hours after the 10k.
Already there is speculation Hassan may do a track event then the marathon in Paris.
Possibly the same for Gidey.
If one or both attempt a track/marathon double . . . doesn't it make more sense to run the 5k first . . . where the final is on August 6th?
Or, just race the marathon?
If either of these scenarios plays out . . . and Alicia is a sub-30 runner going into Paris . . . and knowing Alicia is a very good hot weather runner so should be ok w/afternoon 10k race start . . . then she would have a very good opportunity to be in that top group w/Tsegay chasing home a medal . . .
Your post is confusing. There are 5 days between the 10K and 5K which is more than enough rest for Gidey to run both. I do agree that Gidey can’t out kick Monson if she isn’t in the race.
All things being equal, Monson will not medal, or even be in the front group. If it turns out to be a fast pace, she is likely to drop off at 5000m or even earlier. If it’s a slow first 5000m, it could be like what Lopes did in 1976 where the second half is hammered and she gets dropped. Another scenario is where there are hard surges that she won’t be able to cover.
Monson is an outstanding runner but the East-Africans are just too fast.
......
You apparently haven't read the article. If Alicia runs close to 29:30 when is one of possible targets in 2024 TEN race, she will be able to handle JUST ABOUT ANY pace. Not saying she will medal but she would be a contender
The great thing about Grant and Alicia and their coaches that they don't speak iof a targeted time or championship placing if it is not a possibility...Did you forget she was in medal position in 2023 World 10000m im the final lap. She got dropped with 275m to go and admitted she was at her max; therefore, has no kick. Getting strong enough to run near 29:30 would give her the next level endurance to have a LEGITIMATE chance to medal
I'd like to believe she's clean but those times and confidence merit heavy suspicion at least. What's her progression been like, realistic?
1-15 yrs ago I was at a USATF L2 coaching seminar. I asked one of the prestenets/instuctors if they thought that any top ten track athelete in any event was "clean." he looked at me for a few seconds (and I'm thinking "..he's going to jam me about the drug usage.."), and says "...top 10, try the top 50!" That's basically been my perspective ever since - and I love track.
Abusive promotion of drug use in athletics, and abusive attack falsely accusing the top 50 distance runners in the world of being on drugs. This abusive ignorant poster should be banned from the forum.
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