Drew MF Griffith - Footlocker boys national champ

Pajak was also an 8:48 3200m runner, so the field was very good at the top.

1. Griffith

2. Jourdon

3. Pajak

4-20 could go a thousand different way. (Simmons should be higher than his NXN showing, Todd should be high even though he wasn’t on his game at Footlocker, Neil should be 4th-6th no lower.)

I gave you two data points and can also give you a third. The 28th place finisher today was 15th overall (10th in 6A) at the Utah state meet. It’s a pattern. Any way you spin it, the overall competition today was very weak. That is the point.

Reminder: Lukas Verzbicas is the only one to have ever won both titles. FL and NXN same year. He is the real GOAT.

Andrew Ludwig got 67th at Utah states and then 17th at NXN. There are 5 weeks between Utah States and NXN, i dont know why that data point is the end game for you. Runners form changes a ton over 5 weeks.

Of course athletes can change over time. But if you look at all three guys and how they performed during the regular season, you’d see that their performances at state seemed to be more or less in line with how they had run up to that point. Yes, it’s certainly possible that each of these guys could have then made massive leaps to where they became national caliber guys against top notch competition. But the likelihood of one guy doing it is small. The likelihood of all three from the same state doing it is significantly smaller. A more likely scenario is that Foot Locker just wasn’t very good this year. The guys at the top aren’t slouches by any means, but the data strongly shows that the overall quality of this national meet just wasn’t very good.

You know what, you're right. FL was worse than the Utah state meet this year. I dont know how i didn't see it before.

You’re blind if you don’t see the argument.

OED, I respect your point, and knowledge, but...Griffisth and Pajak ARE National Class guys, they just happened to be in the same state. Jimmy Wischusen one of the most gifted NJ guys I had seen in a while was 7th at NXN after DNF'ing two weeks in a row at Holmdel when Barrett jumped him at the two mile mark each week . and the somehow Running 15:49 at Bowdoin Park, a challenging but maybe 12 secs slower than a tough Hershey Pa. layout.And did not win there either. as gifted as he is and was, he simply was no where near the level of Griffith or Pajak all year, not near it. As gifted? At least ,most likely ,but this year, he was not a top guy in any race at any time. Pajak and Griffith are top 5 types in any year at NXN. 4:07 and 8:48 types as returners, factor in almost any top flight race.

I’m not arguing they aren’t national class. I’m criticizing them for not testing themselves against the best. My other arguments are about the depth of the field.

By your logic the two PA boys ran great. They beat Todd, the guy who finished 2nd at NXN, so the only national runner they aren't tested against is JoJo Jourdon.

So who gets the Gatorade award?

They could resist making a tough call and give it to a jr like last year... or do the right thing and give it to Jourdon.

Yeah because that’s totally how works. The transitive property in sports is always right.

There are 5 weeks between Utah States and NXN.

That is crazy!

It gets real cold and snowy in Utah by the end of October.

Where did Dan Simmons finish last week? Hard to make comparisons on one or two races. Drew and Ryan and Tam would all be looking to finish top 10 at NXN (as would Patrick Koon and several of the other guys today). Doesn't mean they would (who would have predicted Simmons and Grevious to finish outside the top 10 last week?). Ryan took down the Franklin course HS record; Byron and Tam both took down the previous record at the difficult Derryfield course (Manchester invitational) previously held by Ben True. These guys are all elite, class runners - no need to disparage any of them by putting down FL or NXN.

I can't understand why people seem surprised when the west runners at FL are second tier. The top tier runners from the west almost always go to NXN. Full stop. End of discussion. This is why none of the fastest Utah runners were there. Same with California. I was hoping Joshua Chu or Trey Caldwell would overperform but Caldwell did as expected and Chu ran the first half of the race at the very back and only picked it up in the last mile. Not a good way to race FL.

The winners today are clearly some of the best high school runners in the nation. I don't think anyone should throw shade on the quality of the FL champions because of a weak west team.

The NE was a bad place to qualify for NXN this year (every year, actually). Only 5 spots outside the team qualifiers. Byron Grevious, Ryan Pajak, Drew Griffith, Paul Bergeron, Tam Gavenas, Jimmy Wischusen, Steven Hergenrother. All national threats. At least 2 get left out if all running NXR. Can't run both in NE, as NXR and FL-NE on the same day. And, NXR is on a BRUTAL course (Bowdoin Park) only one week before NXN. The situation stinks for the NE runners. I don't think any of them were trying to avoid the NXN competition; they know that their chances at a national title are better if they have 2 weeks between the regional and national races than one week after a really hard regional meet on a nasty course.

The best runners and teams in the nation were in the west this year. Their absence significantly dropped the quality of FL this year. NXN has been the better race for a few years now, but it was very clear in advance that there would be an even wider gap this year. Those who chose FL, even if they are very good, chose a much lesser race. That colors the impact of their victories.

It certainly isn’t ideal, but the West runners had to deal with the same situation for years with regards to FL. Every other region got two weeks in between races while the West had to race back-to-back weeks. They historically did just fine at the national meet though.