Valencia: Cheptegei predictions?

Me too, I will pay more attention on Kandie for the above reasons .I will also pay attention on Bekele.Alot of people dismiss him but if he managed to reach atleast 80%fitness in the build up to this race he might unleash a monstrous performance. I think he has flown under the radar and managed to prepare for this race without the usual pressure and expectations.That makes him dangerous this time round if he is fit.

So you used to be able to qualify for the olympic marathon without having ever run a marathon? I think he'll keep the trend alive and beat the old debut record for a 5k/10k world record holder and run 2:04 and change. His half isn't super impressive though so I don't think he'll be running faster. Kiplimo's debut will likely be more impressive, hopefully next fall. I'd expect a 2:02 or better from him.

Another one to keep an eye on is Tanzania's Gabriel Geay.When he is in shape,he is a beast.He is the one that broke and scattered the Boston star studded field in Aprilthis year. He also ran very well against Kiptum in Valencia in 2022.Watch out for him.

Does anyone know what the pacers will be set for? My guess is 61:00, because Valencia always wants a record, and that's what it would take to keep Kiptum's 2:01:53 in their sights. Maybe it will be more modest though, closer to 61:30? I can't see anything slower than that, given the stature of the field and the event.

This seems reasonable. I personally don't see him translating to a world-beating marathon guy. My guess is he peaks around 2:02 if he stays healthy. Which used to be phenomenal, of course, 2 seconds ago.

I think you are on the money. I bet 61:15 to split the difference.

Yep. Would be a real monkey-wrench in the selection process if they picked a Ugandan for their team.

Do you have some evidence that Bekele has prepared for this race?

I wish you were correct but I have my doubts.

Less a prediction than what I'd love to see: Chep, Bekele and a third on 2:02-mid pace late in the race and...another GNR 2013 finish from KB.

Geay wins 2:01.

Chep 2:06.

Bek DNF

Either 2:02:xx or 2:06:xx. He's great on the track, but like mentioned that doesn't always pan out perfectly on the roads. However, given how good he is at the 10k, he might just suprise people with a top 10 all time.

2:03.45 for Cheptegui

Official pacing target I saw was 3 guys aiming for 61-flat. Geay, Kandie and Mutiso are the 3 potential guys to run 2:02 or daresay 2:01 in my estimation.

Gebrselassie was past his track prime by the time he turned to the marathon. The last global title he won was in 2000. In 2001 he finished third in the World Championships 10,000.

2:05

And I'm predicting he places no better than 3rd.

2:04-low, maybe into 2:03-high if he's racing in the latest 1km. A very good debut and I suspect it won't be his ceiling. But I also didn't think Hassan could get anywhere near 2:16 this year and look how that worked out

Predictions like this are silly. “Either he’ll be great and run 2:02 or he won’t be and run 2:06.” As if there’s any logical reason to preclude 2:03, 2:04, or 2:05.

LOL Your brain is the one that needs a monkey wrench! hahaha

If the weather was perfect, my prediction for Joshua's time would be between 2:02:50-2:03:30, honestly, but since it's gping to be quite windy, with strong bursts from the west, most of the first part of the race will be hard, so 2:04:47 (at least), still fast enough for beating the national Ugandan record of 2:04:48 by Stephen Kissa (Hamburg 2022).