Will Tuohy Valby run BU 5K? PREDICTIONS Thread!

Katelyn and Parker will not run. It’s time to focus on recovery and training after a long and hard season. The Olympic buildup is approaching. Good luck to both women.

Assuming Valby races and gets sub 15 shape pro competition she definitely goes under 15 and it's more of a question how far under. I think she can contend with pros up to 14:40 in the right race. Alicia Monson's existence let's me think there's a possibility a less speed oriented athlete could succeed at 5000m. I have to imagine Valby is currently on par with athletes like sisson/kelatiwhen they went sub 15 and they were both low 15's in college.

Ironically Tuohy would seem like the best candidate to go 14:3x coming out of college based on her race style and 1500m/3k strength but maybe she doesn't have the same engine as Valby to utilize that type of speed. I just wish we knew if she was truly maxed out running 15:03 last year or if that was the beginning of the end for the season.

I know Wiley is way more speed oriented than those two but she's another I could see making the leap to sub 15 shape. But she's not even remotely close to being challenged aerobically in the naia and probably trains more like a professional running the 8/15.

I tend to believe this for the moment. Tuohy seemed to be trending well between Nuttycombe and nationals, and I have no reason to doubt she had a cold/minor illness at nationals that led to a subpar performance (and she still placed 5th). I don’t pretend to know better than the athletes and their coaches what’s best to avoid burnout and to prepare for their larger goals, but it wouldn’t surprise me for either to cash in on their XC fitness and get an indoor Nats qualifier before taking a break and then running easy until after the new year. For Valby, a chance to translate her awesome form to a big 5k PR; for Tuohy, something of a personal redemption if what we saw at Nats wasn’t representative of her true fall fitness. I think Valby has a good chance at sub-15 and Tuohy can probably run another 15:0x on a good day.

Yeah, I think Wiley should focus on the 8/15 instead of moving up. She’s got a strong chance of making the Olympic team with the right race.

I think both Valby and Tuohy are in high 14:50s shape. It would be notable to be the first college athlete to break that barrier. It would make sense for both to do this race, skip indoor season, and focus on the Trials. They both would gain a lot of experience.

There are no women in the US who have gone sub 14:50 that do not train at altitude. Tuohy (sadly) will not get there unless she starts training at altitude, and doubtful Valby will as well.

Monson made her big drop after moving to altitude full time, and then dropped again after two years at altitude.....

Unless something has changed, Tuohy will not be in college this spring.

Also to note - the top pros do not typically show up to this early December BU meet. They are still building for the spring. Cranny, Stafford, Fisher, Kincaid, Nuguse (has Alicia done a fast race at bu? Or does she just go all out at Millrose) all ran their amazing indoor races in Jan/Feb of 2021/22. And apparently the entire OAC team had Covid last week.

No woman is running 14:40 next weekend. This meet is typically won in 15:05-15:10. The info said it’s going to be paced at 15:20.

Altitude, or just having more time to focus on training? Do we know what Monson's college training was like, and how it compares to her pro training? Most college students don't have time to do doubles. Go pro, get time to do doubles every day. JI spends 9 months at sea level.

Altitude obviously has a huge amount to do with it. Kenya, Ethiopia do not train at sea level... not really a debate. All the runners that beat Tuohy at USAs train at altitude, most of them live at altitude. The results speak for themselves. Like I said, no women in US currently running under 14:50 that don't train at altitude.

BTC is the only counterpoint - but they had altitude camps. And not being at altitude full time is one of the reasons Cranny and Fisher have departed (reportedly).

What would be the point of tuohy running this?

Last year they paced it for 15 or 15:10 for her and Rodenfels. If there are elite runners in the field they will adjust the pacing.

I seem to recall they also added pacers at the last minute to accommodate a faster pace.

Very little chance anyone goes sub 15... Probably not even sub 1505... Tuohy 1515 last year... Valby won nationals in 1525 last year... Most of the other college runners are 1520 plus at best..... They probably won't even run... Too bad would have been a great rivalry... Now they will fade into the obscurity of the dozen plus American woman who run around 15 min and have little to no chance of making a national team... Maybe by 2028 they will do something

Too much overanalysis on Tuohy. She's raced 5x in 6 mths, so she's not burned out. Somewhat unlucky at NCAA outdoor with heat and NCAA xc with illness, but one does not run a PR in every race anyway.

They will come up with a plan to have her ready for Olympic Trials, but making the team is a long shot anyway.

In between she's sure to do some racing, as she's more the Ingebritsen, Willis, Hassan mentality who likes to race, than someone who will disappear for a year. She also needs qualifying times.

No one pays much attention to other runners, but athletes like Ramsden and OSullivan ran plenty of both poor and excellent races over past 6 months, and they are progressing quite well.

Touhy will race some indoors, just not sure what jersey and shoes she will be in.

Last year the race was paced at ~9:00 but the pacers (Emma Coburn and Dani Jones if I recall) were slightly off pace at 3k. Tuohy faded towards the end and Rodenfels ran away with it in 15:08.

I imagine Rodenfels will run again (she has won it the past two years). She has also been on a hot streak on the roads so maybe she finally breaks 15. Rodenfels is an example of a 'sea level' runner who doesn't really train at altitude and circles around 15 minutes, but has struggled to run sub-15 so far. But, she loves training in Boston and likes her team there so it works for her.

O'Sullivan had a distaster in the NCAA final and then went on to run some excellent times in the summer. Her mother was a WC with a mountain of experience, and it happened anyway.

90% chance sub 15 for Valby.

They missed pacing for a sub-15 by a long shot, and there were too many bodies on the track to run that anyway. But even without those problems, Tuohy had already started falling off the pace by the time Coburn left the track at 3600m in ~10:56 (i.e., 15:11 pace).

IMO, in order to see a sub-15 on that track, the pacer needs to absolutely come through 3600m in 10:45, and there need to be a lot fewer typical collegiate-class athletes in the race.