Check out NC State men's team. They all went out super slow (relatively speaking) and moved up well to finish ahead of their ranking. I'd love to know if that was intentional direction from their coach or if they just got stuck in the back.
Team score at 1k of 980 but they finished 17th overall
For a K or 2 around 7-8K it looked like the hot pace might have cooked OKST's Brian Musau when he tried to dual lead with Denis, but then he clutched up for the 9K to 10K and got back on track. He really looked like he was going to fade out to 20th or something for a bit
Other than that, it looked like almost everyone who went out hot still had enough to increase pace at the 9K to finish.
When i coached this getting out hard thing was a major difference that the european athletes did not get and was always a sticking point.
the problem is that everyone is good in this field and it is incredibly deep. It is almost impossible to be all American going out in 150-200th at 2k. As for teams, I’d you want a trophy you better be in the top 4-6 at 3k. Scores are refined at that point but don’t change a lot.
It is human nature to race those around you and is extremely hard to continuously move through the field. This was also a more narrow course compared to OSU or Indiana State with lots of turns with string out a race even more.
For most it is counter productive but the truth is you have to go fast at the beginning and play the game.
How did Victor Shi_tsama from OSU move from 120th at 1k and 92nd at 2k to get to the top 20 by 5K (and finish 12th overall)??? He was only 3.7 seconds back from 1st at 6k. The whole you "gotta get out hard" thing is the biggest lie ever told in XC and its amazing how many people still believe it.
The one year I ran NCAAs, there was a guy by me in dang near dead last at 1k that got All-American because he was notoriously good at pacing himself properly.
Check out NC State men's team. They all went out super slow (relatively speaking) and moved up well to finish ahead of their ranking. I'd love to know if that was intentional direction from their coach or if they just got stuck in the back.
Team score at 1k of 980 but they finished 17th overall
Fantastic example, NC State did it right and their average pace in the 2nd 5K was still 39 seconds slower than the first. 28th ranked, obvious threat to get DFL in this meet but due to great pacing, finished 17th instead.
if someone has the time, it would be interesting to compare prenats times vs nationals and compare those who went out relatively fast for their prenats times and those that went out slow.
When i coached this getting out hard thing was a major difference that the european athletes did not get and was always a sticking point.
the problem is that everyone is good in this field and it is incredibly deep. It is almost impossible to be all American going out in 150-200th at 2k. As for teams, I’d you want a trophy you better be in the top 4-6 at 3k. Scores are refined at that point but don’t change a lot.
It is human nature to race those around you and is extremely hard to continuously move through the field. This was also a more narrow course compared to OSU or Indiana State with lots of turns with string out a race even more.
For most it is counter productive but the truth is you have to go fast at the beginning and play the game.
All this is generally true. The top guys went 2:29 then hit the brakes and everyone piled up behind them while they recovered over the next couple k. So anyone who went out slow got caught in traffic. But this year a lot of guys did manage to go out relatively slow and move up to all american. It’s definitely possible. But very rarely are podium teams doing that successfully.
Looking over the results more closely, this does look like a course where you can move through the field. It's not a universal truth though and can be tough to know ahead of time. Especially on muddy or winding course with many turns, position does matter somewhat.
There have been plenty of threads over the years along the lines of "Why did X team start so slow and get buried?" I always figured a good rule of thumb was to try and pass about 10% of the field throughout the race.
I know no one cares about NAIA, but go look at the thread about the overwhelming favorite IWU, who got out too conservative and was never able to recover despite moving up the entire race.
How did Victor Shi_tsama from OSU move from 120th at 1k and 92nd at 2k to get to the top 20 by 5K (and finish 12th overall)??? He was only 3.7 seconds back from 1st at 6k.
Well he was also only 8 seconds back from 1st at 1k and only 6 seconds back at 2k. And plus his first k was a bit slower but second k was 2 seconds faster than the leaders and he had to probably run a lot wider and pass 28 people. I’m an advocate of going out conservative unless you’re trying to win but people should acknowledge it’s not a no brainer. The time differences are small and place differences significant. Most who pull it off make up the differences by 4-5k, not over the second half of the race.
The slowest person in the entire field split 2:45 at 1k. Imagine being dead last with a 2:45 opening k? It was downhill/downwind. Still way too fast but everyone gets out too fast in XC -- it's tradition, or something. You can't just time trial from the gun in XC so the top runners get out hard and get to the front. The whole pack would have to shift to something like 2:35-2:55 or it would be even more bunched up early on.
Idk what the biggest jump was but there were people in the 200-250 range who crushed it after being more conservative. They were never in it for the win but they ran really sound races. NCST trio did this well: Brett Gardner started in 229th & finished 51st. Toby Gaulter went 230 to 102. Daniel McGoey went from 231 to 112.
I don’t think the pace was that insane. They went out in 2:29-30
12:30 5k pace / 25:00 10k pace lololololololol.
With last place coming through in 2:45, it would obviously be a disaster to have that many runners to pass.
But of course it would have been smarter for anyone to hang back a bit, say 2:35-2:39.
This would actually make a big difference physiologically.
It's not hard to pass runners as the race goes on, and there is really no need to lead or be on the leader's shoulder or even in a pack. Rupp did this all the time, hanging back and working his way back up. Also many, many WXC winners.
Iowa State, maybe even a better example of proper pacing than NC State was. Check their team out, 17th at 1k, 5th by the end. 1 of their Kenyans took off like a maniac and went from 7th to 176th but the rest of the team was much smarter and just destroyed the field after the fast opening. Even with all that, their team avg splits still went from 14:36 first 5k to 15:22 2nd 5k.
I think most people on here have never run NCAAs in DI and try to transfer experience from road races. I've run it three times and it is not comparable. It is so frantic and chaotic to be in that pack, there are people moving up, moving down, going to the outside, inside, small clusters of teammates that try to find each other. I've run plenty of road races since, but even Valencia marathon with 30k people was far less frantic than NCAA XC with 250!!
So I'm not saying it's impossible, but it is INCREDIBLY hard to move up the pack and be calm about it. Outside on one turn will put you inside one the next turn, and so one. Plus, you only get 1 chance a season maybe to practice this at Nuttycombe or Pre-Nats, which still isn't remotely close in terms of chaos. Going out hard, you can practice/simulate in workouts, this race, you can't simulate.
I don’t think the pace was that insane. They went out in 2:29-30
12:30 5k pace / 25:00 10k pace lololololololol.
With last place coming through in 2:45, it would obviously be a disaster to have that many runners to pass.
But of course it would have been smarter for anyone to hang back a bit, say 2:35-2:39.
This would actually make a big difference physiologically.
It's not hard to pass runners as the race goes on, and there is really no need to lead or be on the leader's shoulder or even in a pack. Rupp did this all the time, hanging back and working his way back up. Also many, many WXC winners.
They need to have a 300m hill at the start so people can complain about how slow they went out…. A tactical XC race would be awesome. Can you imagine a team going out and slowing to 5:20 pace and then having some crazy last 2k….
I think it is rare to see this many guys move up so much but it is impressive that they were able to pull it off.
The depth up front and this down hill start really ramped things up. With NAU and OSU having half the top 20 between them, both were willing to take the risk.
A team like Arkansas got out hard, paid off for them.
Running for 15th as a team, no need to go out this hard.
The NCAA mens race went out at 2:29 1k, with pretty much every man who finished top 10 within a second or two of the NAU leaders at the 1k split.
Obviously with a such a large race they want to get out and be clear of bodies but do you think this is the best strategy? Clearly Blanks still won going out in 2:30 but I am curious how someone like Nico Young (or anyone else in the conversation to potentially win) would have done sitting off the hot pace the first k at least.
Are there examples that come to mind of past NCAA Championship races where a winner has a more conservative start and runs down the front pack?
Keep in mind I am a bit older than the field, but I would have been comfortable going out at 2:29 back in my prime. I was a 1:48/4:01 guy I think the fast pace suits some runners and by the DNFs it obviously cribbled those that have less foot speed. I ran one XC Race in 2004 in which the field went through the opening mile in 4:18. I can't say it suited all of the runners as a number of NCAA Division 1 All Americans from the previous season and those that went on to earn the accolade during the season fell apart and finished between 50th and 150th during the meet. I held on and stayed with the top 20 and wound up leading the field through 2k and 3k before settling into the front pack. If a fast pace is not your rhythm best thing you can do is run an even pace and just pass runners during the race. Eventually you will make it to the front as long as you are disciplined and patient.
I don’t think the pace was that insane. They went out in 2:29-30
12:30 5k pace / 25:00 10k pace lololololololol.
With last place coming through in 2:45, it would obviously be a disaster to have that many runners to pass.
But of course it would have been smarter for anyone to hang back a bit, say 2:35-2:39.
This would actually make a big difference physiologically.
It's not hard to pass runners as the race goes on, and there is really no need to lead or be on the leader's shoulder or even in a pack. Rupp did this all the time, hanging back and working his way back up. Also many, many WXC winners.
It was majorly downhill and like most XC races, the first 200 is a hard sprint. If the slowest guy in the field goes out in 27:30 pace as you have it, you know there is a pace adjustment necessary here. I definitely agree if you were aiming at places 40-100 it'd be better to work through the pace then to get into the top 25 early. No question about that. For the frontrunners, I don't think that's the right move at all.
I think most people on here have never run NCAAs in DI and try to transfer experience from road races. I've run it three times and it is not comparable. It is so frantic and chaotic to be in that pack, there are people moving up, moving down, going to the outside, inside, small clusters of teammates that try to find each other. I've run plenty of road races since, but even Valencia marathon with 30k people was far less frantic than NCAA XC with 250!!
So I'm not saying it's impossible, but it is INCREDIBLY hard to move up the pack and be calm about it. Outside on one turn will put you inside one the next turn, and so one. Plus, you only get 1 chance a season maybe to practice this at Nuttycombe or Pre-Nats, which still isn't remotely close in terms of chaos. Going out hard, you can practice/simulate in workouts, this race, you can't simulate.
This. The sheer volume of people moving fast is also something you have to deal with, plus finding good terrain and footing on top of all that. If you're someone who wants to be anywhere near the front at the business end of the race, you don't want to let certain guys out of your sight and if that means running too fast at the beginning, then so be it.
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