My idols dad said that shouldn't be allowed.
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THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
John Wesley Harding wrote:
I think you’re understating the difficulty of beating all those guys on the same day, and maybe making too much of DNFing at Worlds. Elites DNF marathons (especially the Olympics and Worlds) and bounce back to their best level all the time.
Like you said, Tola should be considered the favorite. DNFing on a warm, humid day in Budapest doesn’t spoil his resume for the last 3 years:
2021 - 2:03:39 Amsterdam (1st)
2022 - 2:04:14 Tokyo (3rd), 2:05:36 WC (1st), 2:03:40 Valencia (4th)
2023 - 2:04:59 London (3rd), DNF WC
Add in:
- the Olympic silver medalist who ran 2:04:56 last year and 2:05:32 this spring (Nageeye)
- a guy who’s finished top-2 in NYC twice including winning in 2021 (Korir)
- a guy who’s finished 2nd in NYC twice including 2022, and has run one of the fastest times in event history at 2:06:01 (Kitata)
- a guy who’s run a 58:32 half this year and just placed 4th at the World Half 2 weeks ago (not a bad thing) (Yimer)
- a 58:40 half marathoner who won his only marathon this year in Seoul with a 2:05:27 (Walelegn)
- Zouhair Talbi, who was 5th in Boston in his marathon debut
-Edward Cheserek, who is fresh off his best performance in years with a 59:11 half marathon win in Copenhagen
—and Levins’s odds of winning get pretty slim, though, obviously, better than if Chebet, Kamworor and Geremew were still in the race as well
Definitely fair. Tola probably deserves more benefit of the doubt but as far as the Ethiopians who did Worlds it’d be an exception if he thrives here. It still to me is hard to bounce back and he ran a good chunk of it. Talbi didn’t make it too far pacing in Chicago dk if that was planned. I am high on King Ches. Yimer has just never gotten it right, we’ll see. Korir poor race in Boston as far as staying close to the leaders. Abdi is good tho I think he’s marginally better than Levins, not definitively. Kitata certainly on his day along with Tola is great. I might be too bullish I just think this is a field not too dissimilar (deeper somewhat) than the Chicago field where Rupp won let’s say.
If you had to rank the top 10 on their best day Tola might be the only guy in this one:
Kiptum, Kipchoge, Chebet, B. Kipruto, Kiplangat, Geremew, Tola, Deso. Big pack after that, which might include Levins.
Hard to leave out Bashir Abdi, Geay, and Leul.
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You're right about Bashir Abdi.
2021 Olympic marathon bronze, winner in Rotterdam in 2:03:36.
2022 third in the WC marathon and third in London
2023 winner in Rotterdam in 2:03:47, third in Chicago.
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At this rate Seth can win the whole thing. Why are the Africans dropping out? Is the word out better testing is being brought in?
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It'd be something if King Ches or Levins won New York.
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Pretty solid workout by Cam
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this is so confusing, i might be totally wrong wrote:
Wonder if any Americans will show up at the last minute. A top 5 is as good as a 2:08 to unlock a spot, IIRC. Could someone like Faubs squeak in with the weaker field?
It would be awesome if there was a sudden influx of American men - people need to take advantage of the opportunities that present themselves.
But while there is individual glory / money to shoot for, I don't think the top5 placing (being worth the 2:08 and unlocking a third team OLY spot) will draw people in. If I understand correctly they'd be unlocking the third OLY spot for whoever gets third at the trials (while putting in an unplanned race effort 13 weeks before those same trials). It's almost like the top10 contenders at the upcoming trails could pool money together to pay someone to go to NYC and be the sacrificial lamb in an attempt to benefit those top10.
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Lkjhg wrote:
Possible doping suspensions incoming?
It worries me with all these top guys dropping out. For instance, why has kamworor dropped with no explanation? Or have I missed it?
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Kokinho wrote:
Yodie wrote:
Cam Levins is having an interesting career as a marathoner. He has run faster than Galen Rupp but Rupp has an Olympic Bronze in the event. Levins seems like a real hard worker and I am glad it is paying off for him. He probably would do well to finish top 3 here and if he can win NYC he would be cementing himself further as one of the best non Africans of his generation, although I realize he would not be the best or probably even in the top 3 in that category.
Rupp got a medal because of the shoes. It will always have an asterisk in my book.
And you're the only one who will read your book. He got bronze, you have nothing.
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Not above reproach wrote:
Lkjhg wrote:
Possible doping suspensions incoming?
It worries me with all these top guys dropping out. For instance, why has kamworor dropped with no explanation? Or have I missed it?
I was thinking they may be going to a faster course to try to run faster than Kipchoge to get a spot on the Kenyan team.
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Not above reproach wrote:
It worries me with all these top guys dropping out. For instance, why has kamworor dropped with no explanation? Or have I missed it?
Interestingly Kamworor is coached by Sang, who just had his second athlete provisionally banned for an ABP violation.
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I'm old enough to remember 10ish years ago when Levins was running 150 mile weeks in college and many were concerned that he'd burn out or not have a long career. And now look at him - better than ever and still a factor. Well done, Levins.
This post was edited 23 seconds after it was posted.360 -
Clay wrote:
Pretty solid workout by Cam
Hopefully, he doesn’t leave his race in training.
You want to be fresh for that course.
I’ve seen a lot of good runners not trust their training and do some crazy workout two weeks before the race and then come up flat on race day.
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runn wrote:
Not above reproach wrote:
It worries me with all these top guys dropping out. For instance, why has kamworor dropped with no explanation? Or have I missed it?
I was thinking they may be going to a faster course to try to run faster than Kipchoge to get a spot on the Kenyan team.
Not the case with the women. The field is stacked.
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Badcompany wrote:
Clay wrote:
Pretty solid workout by Cam
Hopefully, he doesn’t leave his race in training.
You want to be fresh for that course.
I’ve seen a lot of good runners not trust their training and do some crazy workout two weeks before the race and then come up flat on race day.
That workout is good but I’m not worried about him “racing” it. Slightly faster than his likely HM abilities (59 low). Also every marathon has numerous injury withdrawals, this one is more notable because it’s the top athletes. I feel most marathons turn over 10-20% of the elite field.
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Here is Kamworors post citing an injury:
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LS on the front line wrote:
Cam has withdrawn and has joined the fight in Gaza.
dude isn't jewish
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THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
Here is Kamworors post citing an injury:
Chebet also cites an injury, no details.
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He was running up to 180/300km a week (similar to what Kiptum has topped at) and was tripling.
The scary thing now is he doesn't always use a watch (read track his mileage) so who knows what he's doing now a days but clearly it works.
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Barles Charkley wrote:
Daniel Do Nascimento will repeat. All is normal.
Sub 2:04 or DNF. The new age Bekele.
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