NXR Southwest 2023 Predictions

You should check out the South GPS data.....I've looked at Strava data this morning and I've seen as short as 3.01.

Valor Christian boys team took 9th but are only losing Eike. It will be interesting to see what they can do next year with a big senior class, when it’s looking to be “the last dance” for the program. Last two years they had only 1 senior

One VC girl (Edwards) transferred to Mountain Vista but she did not compete in this race. And yet they took 3rd and will likely be getting an at-large. They return everyone next year including Edwards so she and the team have another chance next year. Also, I counted 3 new transfers on the MV team that were scoring today.

Orem did better than I expected. If they had a 5th runner, they would have placed in the top 4.

What makes it more impressive is that they are a significantly smaller public school.

Interesting fact:

Culpepper is the only person who was in Niwot’s top 7 last year who raced the championship race.

Mazurana was in another school’s top 7 last year

Utah Boys/Colorado Girls were dominant.

Boys:

7 out of top 10 teams and individuals were from Utah. Border wars scores:

UT 16
CO 47
AZ 105
NM 105
NV 116

Girls:

7 out of top 10 individuals and 6 of top 10 teams were from Colorado. Notably, Aagard and Hedengren didn't race. They were easily the top 2 runners in the region.

Border wars:

Colorado 22
Utah 49
NM 78
NV 111
AZ 130

Similar results have been a consistent pattern for a solid decade. NM, NV, AZ are an afterthought unfortunately.

On the boys side, of the 150 top 10 team finishes over the past decade 136/150 have been Utah teams(92) or Colorado(44).

AZ reached an all-time low with their top teams Highland placing 29th(boys) and 27th(girls). 14 Utah boys teams beat Highland. Probably would be more if others were allowed in the Championship race.

Fantastic race by Rahmer. Its not just the time but more the tactics she used to seal that win against much older, much more experienced athletes like Allori and Ritzenhein and Michalak. How do you even know how to do that as an 8th grader!?

And at the New Mexico State meet, she won by just over 2 minutes. She sure didn’t just want to win it. Must have been racing with strategy

She definitely took down a strong field. But she was very lucky Aagard and Hedengren weren't there.

I never know what to do with this phenomenon of outstanding 8th/9th grade girls. Someone like Grace Ping was outstanding in middle school. She got 6th at NXN in 8th grade. By the time she was a Sophomore she got 48th an NXN and got clobbered by her 8th grade sister. By the time she was a senior she was nationally irrelevant. This almost always seems to happen with very few exceptions.

everybody knows that though. theres no need to constantly repeat this refrain over and over and over again any time a young female athlete runs well as if its a revelation. so tired of the Grace Ping speech every time an eighth grader has a great race... its just as bad a reaction as the clowns who insist on shouting "future Olympian!!" after kids like this run well. everybody knows many peak early. or get slammed by puberty. its old news... and exactly why I said nothing when she blew away the field at her state championship last week because I knew the usual letsrunners would trip over themselves to cite Grace Ping... but she just beat some really experienced nationally ranked runners tactically. not simply by out running them because shes all lungs at this point in her development. we should be commending her for that alone. thats hard to do. how does an eighth grader even know how to pull that off? she masterfully ran a messy course and neutralized the kick of the 3A Colorado state champion who is an experienced senior headed to Notre Dame and a 2:11 half miler known for her kick. thats crazy. nevermind dropping runners like Michalak and Ritzenhein. no doubt how she develops over time will mean the difference for her and she may fade into irrelevancy as she ages (she may also end up getting trampled in her first shot at NXN as an eighth grader). But lets give her her due for this race at least. it was impressive.

Riverton’s top 3 all finished in front of Herriman’s #1 guy

Herriman’s #1 guy wasn’t on their varsity last year.

So, how many bids? I think the girls deserve 2.

What Niwot returns for next year (times from NXR):
15:17 (10)
15:42 (9)
15:45 (10)
15:46 (10)
15:48 (10)
15:50 (11)
15:52 (11)

What Herriman returns for next year (times from NXR):
15:23 (11)
15:30 (11)
15:38 (11)
15:45 (11)
16:19 (10)
16:57 (11)
17:07 (11)

I agree that the girls deserve 2.

I think the boys deserve at least 1.