Another angle:
Kiptum blew out the London and Chicago CRs, including Kipchoge's CR at London.
The only marathon CR still standing for Kipchoge is at Tokyo, 2:02:xx
Going to Tokyo would give Kiptum the psychological advantage of obliterating Kipchoge's remaining course record, place him at 3/6 first place finishes at world majors at age 23/24 and likely to accomplish what Kipchoge claimed he could do but now looks increasingly likely to slip away -- win all six world majors. It's also the most optimal timing, pretty much exactly equidistant between Chicago and the Olympics.
Then he buries him once and for all in Paris.
Kipchoge probably recognizes that Father Time will prevent him from ever making a legitimate attempt at the WR again or winning both Boston and New York in his 40s
BUT if he wins a third consecutive Olympic gold he will be in the history books forever, no matter what Kiptum does (although Kiptum certainly has a decent chance of matching that feat, at this rate)
Kipchoge will put his heart and soul into Olympics preparation
That means no marathons suboptimally timed in late April as he did in 2016 and 2021
That means no risk of crushing his confidence at Boston
That means no victory lap at London and risking a loss, and knowing he likely won't break Kiptum's CR
I predict a small marathon like Rotterdam or nothing at all for Kipchoge, and he puts everything on the line in Paris.
It will be one of the greatest clashes in the history of sport, and Kiptum will retire him