The similarity to last year is uncanny - just with slightly different details.
Last year it was just under 1.52 at 800m but jakob couldn't (didn't) drive the third lap hard enough to put JW beyond his threshold and opened the window for the acceleration to pass him then hold on.
Just then we saw the EXACT same mistake - this time much slower at 800m (1.54.0) but even with a faster 3rd lap than Eugene (55.39) it was this time Kerr that hadn't been damaged enough and was able to use his better power to make the key move past Jakon and then hold on to the finish.
Jakob is a great, great runner but if the first 800m is not right at his threshold (better than the field) he is just extremely vulnerable to guys with better power and the ability to accelerate. Today he was able to muscle-up to Kerr when he first made the attack with 200 to go, but had no answer when the second one came. Kerr today executed the playbook of how to beat Jakob perfectly.
Kipsang went out slower which you’d think would have helped Jakob. Kipsang didn’t fight off his pass, though. And yet I don’t get that slow second lap, outside of him just not feeling good (appears to be the case)
Kipsang went out slower which you’d think would have helped Jakob. Kipsang didn’t fight off his pass, though. And yet I don’t get that slow second lap, outside of him just not feeling good (appears to be the case)
a faster second woudn't have changed anything. Kerr was in 3:28 shape tonight. So not enough margin for Jakob to be the pacemaker for more than 1000m and still win.
Health issue. Told NRK that he had an off day and that he did not feel good, and something about a dry throat for the past couple of days. Then they interviewed Elisabeth, who said that he has been struggling with some recurring health issue this season that has bothered him, without going into more detail.
The similarity to last year is uncanny - just with slightly different details.
Last year it was just under 1.52 at 800m but jakob couldn't (didn't) drive the third lap hard enough to put JW beyond his threshold and opened the window for the acceleration to pass him then hold on.
Just then we saw the EXACT same mistake - this time much slower at 800m (1.54.0) but even with a faster 3rd lap than Eugene (55.39) it was this time Kerr that hadn't been damaged enough and was able to use his better power to make the key move past Jakon and then hold on to the finish.
Jakob is a great, great runner but if the first 800m is not right at his threshold (better than the field) he is just extremely vulnerable to guys with better power and the ability to accelerate. Today he was able to muscle-up to Kerr when he first made the attack with 200 to go, but had no answer when the second one came. Kerr today executed the playbook of how to beat Jakob perfectly.
Kipsang went out slower which you’d think would have helped Jakob. Kipsang didn’t fight off his pass, though. And yet I don’t get that slow second lap, outside of him just not feeling good (appears to be the case)
100% - if appears if any lap in the 1500m is slower than 56.5 seconds, then Jakob is going to struggle to contain the more powerful guys (primarily over 800m) like Wightman, Kerr etc. To run a lap today in 58.0 was stunning and we know he had the form to run it faster (as evidenced by the 3rd lap of 55.3). But hey - he didn't and Kerr was the better guy today.
I think he needs the support of a pacer to set the pace, he is stronger/faster enough to go out harder and hold it, slightly too slow today and allow the pack to kick
3 world championship silvers in a row - counting 2022 indoors. I don't think it was necessarily an off day (might have been - someone said he was according to Norwegian TV), he just wasn't good enough to run away from the field. He can do that with a pacemaker to draft off, of but not when the rest of the field drafts off him. My money is still on him to win the 5K.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
Kipsang went out slower which you’d think would have helped Jakob. Kipsang didn’t fight off his pass, though. And yet I don’t get that slow second lap, outside of him just not feeling good (appears to be the case)
100% - if appears if any lap in the 1500m is slower than 56.5 seconds, then Jakob is going to struggle to contain the more powerful guys (primarily over 800m) like Wightman, Kerr etc. To run a lap today in 58.0 was stunning and we know he had the form to run it faster (as evidenced by the 3rd lap of 55.3). But hey - he didn't and Kerr was the better guy today.
It’s a tough picture for him, here are young/new athletes who weren’t even factors last year:
Nuguse
Laros
R. Cheruiyot
Nordas
It’s really their first year of relevance on the World Senior Stage. I’ll exclude Habz because he is so old. Any of these 4 could experience another jump and it wouldn’t be surprising.
100% - if appears if any lap in the 1500m is slower than 56.5 seconds, then Jakob is going to struggle to contain the more powerful guys (primarily over 800m) like Wightman, Kerr etc. To run a lap today in 58.0 was stunning and we know he had the form to run it faster (as evidenced by the 3rd lap of 55.3). But hey - he didn't and Kerr was the better guy today.
In future years he'll have Laros to deal with too
Yes, he will need to improve.
Jakob said after the race: "I felt that my legs were not very good today. Very bad timing, I think. I felt in the warm-up for the semi-final that my throat was a little dry. I don't feel like my body was 100 percent and after the first 200 meter in today's race I felt I was not 100 percent. "I had no chance. I had nothing to offer. It's a bit of bad luck on timing. I have been in good form this year. And then when it comes down to it, I fail"
He was also asked about if the feeling was similar like last year WC 1500, and say "No, last year I was the best in the field and should have won, but I made big tactical errors. Today, I was not the best one in the field".
3 world championship silvers in a row - counting 2022 indoors. I don't think it was necessarily an off day (might have been - someone said he was according to Norwegian TV), he just wasn't good enough to run away from the field. He can do that with a pacemaker to draft off, of but not when the rest of the field drafts off him. My money is still on him to win the 5K.
I think we should take Jakob at his word. He said he felt like sh-t from the gun and his loss was NOT tactics, it was because he had a very off day (for him). Last year he lost because of tactics, this year he lost because he just didn't have his usual strength and closing speed we've seen this year. This is why he ran a slow 3rd lap and why he had nothing over the last 150. The others are too good for Jakob to feel like cr-p and still win. Does Kipyegon every have a bad day? Maybe she does, but she is SOOOO much better than the rest we can't tell.
Jakob said after the race: "I felt that my legs were not very good today. Very bad timing, I think. I felt in the warm-up for the semi-final that my throat was a little dry. I don't feel like my body was 100 percent and after the first 200 meter in today's race I felt I was not 100 percent. "I had no chance. I had nothing to offer. It's a bit of bad luck on timing. I have been in good form this year. And then when it comes down to it, I fail"
He was also asked about if the feeling was similar like last year WC 1500, and say "No, last year I was the best in the field and should have won, but I made big tactical errors. Today, I was not the best one in the field".
Yes, Jakob always tells it like it is. We should believe him.
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