Nick Kipleri wrote:
1500m: 98%
5000m: 0.3%
I think I’ll find myself rooting for an upset in the 5k (that is, someone beating Jakob), but you’re almost making me root for Jakob just to show how ridiculous it is to give him a 1/300 chance of winning. How could you possibly say that about a reigning world champion who’s run 3:27.14 and 7:54.10 this year and has a dated 12:48 PR? And don’t you dare give me that crap about how the 7:54 doesn’t mean anything because the 2 mile is a seldom run distance—it’s 7:21.89 3k pace for an additional 218m, and there’s no arguing with that.
98% in the 1500 is too high, but looks comparatively reasonable next to your 0.3% figure.