Aregawi
Aregawi
my two pennies wrote:
Nur is him. 2:21 last K at USAs in a 13:20s race. 13:06 last year and got 11th at worlds. Looks to be in similar or better shape to Grijalva now (12:52 this year). Dark horse to medal.
Chelimo is a 3-time medalist, no slouch even though his PR is a bit off the top guys. As likely to medal as any of the 12:40s guys except Jakob and Chep imo.
McGorty is kinda mediocre, that’s true, but he got top 3 in both 10k and 5k for a reason. His last 1k at USAs was like 2:23 I think, still a nice close. 13:02 quite recently as well, in a race where nobody broke 13:00.
I totally agree re: Nur - I think he’s a perennial finalist and could medal one day, and will run at least low-12:50s in the next few years. Probably underrated, not overrated. Between Mo Farah, Mo Ahmed, Abdi Nageeye and Bashir Abdi, Somali-born runners have a recent history of picking up hardware.
It’s kind of funny that everyone remains of the opinion that McGorty is “kinda mediocre.” I mean, I’m not super high on his potential, but it’s funny how nobody gave him a chance in the 10k and then nobody gave him a chance in the 5k, and then he ran 13:02 beating Nordas by 3 seconds and we let out a collective yawn. Between those 3 races you could definitely argue he’s displayed sub-13 fitness, and he seems like a pretty gritty racer. I honestly think McGorty has been slighted over the years because he doesn’t look like a typical elite 5k/10k runner, so it’s sort of assumed he has limited potential. It would be awesome if he made the final and finished like, 7th. Maybe then we’d give him his due credit.
I don’t see Chelimo medaling again, but he did run really well in the last 800 of the USAs 5k and he’s been there before, so who knows.
I think the over/under for this squad is two guys in the final placing 6th and 11th, or so. Which would be excellent compared with 98-99% of countries.
Aregawi wrote:
Aregawi
Aregawi, Gebrhiwet, Kejelcha and the others who went fast this year are already the champions. What does a WC with heats and a "tactical" final matter now?
99% of all runners who love "tactical" distance races have never even been in one. Only elite champs and high level NCAA see much of that. The game is how fast can you go.
usatf rules wrote:
Remember when Centro won gold? The guys who lost to him said similar things. He shouldn't have won just like the 3 guys who won the top 3 spots at USATF had no business going 1-2-3. But racing is racing. We reward winning regardless of times.
False. No one said Centro shouldn’t have won. He was always in the contention
You thought Centro had as good of a chance for Olympic gold as Nur had to win the USATF? Well you were the only one.
It’s as simple as this: The turnaround time from the 10k to 5k at this years USA’s was too short with the talent as high as it is with several guys close to each other.
Woody was cooked in the 5. Klecker looked very tired. Chelimo actually surprised me. McGorty was the anomaly. Why was McGorty able to do it? Did he peak at USA’s? Did his injury in the Spring create enough downtime from Jerry’s training to be on the upward swing going into USA’s? Tough to say other then to say congratulations to him for pulling it off.
USATF did a good thing last year by holding the 10k before USA’s. However, even that was sub optimal because the time between the two was far too long and made it very difficult to semi peak for both.
I have never understood USATF’s timing of World or Olympic qualifiers. This year they held USA’s six weeks out from Worlds. How can an athlete hold a peak for that long unless timed perfectly. Peaking is not a perfect science. Other countries don’t put their athletes into a deficit like that. They hold their trials much closer to the Championship date. Why can’t we?
I think Nur and Kincaid have been our best guys this year at this distance
Having a 'B' team that all have sub 13:00 potential in them isn't too bad. Mcgorty running the 13:02 recently, Chelimo running a 13:03 2 days after a running a 13:06 while being sick, Nur running 13:05 after falling. I think in a semi tactical(lets say 13:15 pace thru 4000)race, Nur might surprise and get somewhere between 3rd-6th if he makes the finals. Mcgorty is usually solid at positioning and Chelimo knows how to race.
Is the US 10k final video anywhere on the net? Never saw it.
anyone who thinks nur is not good enough will eventually be forced to see just how special this guy is. He's gonna be in it.
tryingtobefast wrote:
anyone who thinks nur is not good enough will eventually be forced to see just how special this guy is. He's gonna be in it.
100% If you’ve been watching it’s clear that Nur is a true talent regardless of his current pr and is very likely to have the best chance of medaling over the next five years of any of those mentioned, maybe even including Fisher. We’ve seen peak Klecker, he’s a solid competitor who might be best on the roads, but he’s never medaling. Nur’s upside is much higher. Same for McGorty. Teare, also at best. Woody is intriguing, but he can’t seem to stay close enough to the lead when it matters. Chelimo is in the sunset of his career. Our A team is Nur and Fisher right now, and I think in the long run Nur may be best.
Methinks you had too much Nur Kool aid. Wake me up when he actually does something special and not base everything on some imaginary potential nonsense. Kincaid has already run sub 13 how many times?
Most realize it was the US champs hot humid weather that was the issue. If they re did the race now in normal weather just can't see Kincaid losing out on a spot. Nor Klecker.
Um so you're actually saying Nur is likely even better than Fisher huh? Omg. So I guess that means since Fisher is already one of the all time greats in the 5000 and 10000 that Nur is a GOAT, battling with Bekele?? How did Nur do in the 10000 again?? Better than Fisher. Wow
getting trounced in the worlds wrote:
Methinks you had too much Nur Kool aid. Wake me up when he actually does something special and not base everything on some imaginary potential nonsense. Kincaid has already run sub 13 how many times?
Most realize it was the US champs hot humid weather that was the issue. If they re did the race now in normal weather just can't see Kincaid losing out on a spot. Nor Klecker.
Um so you're actually saying Nur is likely even better than Fisher huh? Omg. So I guess that means since Fisher is already one of the all time greats in the 5000 and 10000 that Nur is a GOAT, battling with Bekele?? How did Nur do in the 10000 again?? Better than Fisher. Wow
No, I rate Fisher highly and I’m not sure how it will play out Nur v Fisher over their entire careers. Let’s see. It’s unlikely either will manage to match Chelimo’s accomplishments in the current environment, even if they have far better prs. Yes, I’m pretty sure that Nur will achieve more than Woody, Klecker, McGorty on the global level. You really would pick Klecker over Nur for their future careers? Not me.
If I'm not mistaken, they were the first 3 finishers so they were selected.
DickMargarita wrote:
If I'm not mistaken, they were the first 3 finishers so they were selected.
And.... every member of the team was self-selected ... as it should be. Always.
Nur looks ready to go low 1250s. McGorty will crack 13, probably 1255-1256 in next year or two. Chelimo is the Centro of the 5000m, makes the team every time. This is our A team. Grant injured, Woody and Klecker spent themselves in the 10k. Teare either needs a Nuguse sized breakthrough or move to the steeple.
Although I generally believe everyone should have a shot at every event, I think the talent level is such that for the time being we should not allow any of our men to double the 5000m/10000m. We now have a load of talent and would be better served to spread it across two events. Our men showed that they don't recover fast enough from the 10000m to be competitive in the 5000m and the world is very tough right now. We'd get better results at Worlds if our 5000 and 10000 teams were guys who were focused on a single event and fresh for that event, not training and preparing for the double.
It's a unique time in US distance running. We actually have several guys who should be strong medal contenders (meaning on any given day they make the last lap in top 5-6), and several guys who are realistic dark horse contenders (top 5-6 if circumstances are right - e.g. slow pace set up for kick). Out of this if we got 2 medals it has to be considered a huge success.
bad take. Hold that L
Fisher was our top American in both the 5k and 10k at worlds last year and the only American in contention for a medal at the bell.
Woody didn’t make the final in the 5k and Nur was young and coming off the NCAA season so he was 11th. Joe got dropped with 1200 to go for 9th and McGorty a little earlier than that(don’t really remember but he was 12th.
Grant was so far above the other Americans last year it would’ve been a shame if he didn’t double.
Maybe this year it was more even, but Grant wasn’t at his best. Next year of Nur makes another jump and Grant is back at full fitness you don’t want them to double???
I also don’t understand why people think Sean McGorty can’t be really good if he stays healthy. The guy has had like 5 Achilles surgeries over the past 5 years with that freaky infection included.
Id argue Joe’s build is more like McGorty’s than it is Fisher’s or Kincaid’s so I don’t buy that “doesn’t look like a distance runner” plot line.
Idk if I agree with this wrote:
I also don’t understand why people think Sean McGorty can’t be really good if he stays healthy. The guy has had like 5 Achilles surgeries over the past 5 years with that freaky infection included.
Id argue Joe’s build is more like McGorty’s than it is Fisher’s or Kincaid’s so I don’t buy that “doesn’t look like a distance runner” plot line.
I’m not even arguing that his potential is limited because of his build or appearance. I’m saying I think his appearance and running form has affected people’s perception of his potential, leading to him being continually overlooked and underrated. That’s all. Disagree if you like.