They improved so much in their 4 years in HS and are borderline pro. Another year of big improvement and considering that they are just talented AF to begin with, do you think its possible?
They improved so much in their 4 years in HS and are borderline pro. Another year of big improvement and considering that they are just talented AF to begin with, do you think its possible?
Odds are that none of the Newbury Park grads will ever make an Olympic team. Definitely not Lex or Leo next year, that’s a joke.
If you think no one from Nico, Colin, Aaron, Leo and Lex is ever making a single Olympic team, even in the marathon in 2036 or 2040 that’s crazy.
It is not. It’s a great big country and there aren’t many Olympic team spots, and the Olympics only come around every 4 years. Runners keep coming up every year and guys like Nuguse, Hocker, Klecker, Teare, Waskom, Nur, Fisher, Mantz, etc. etc. don’t disappear after one cycle. Realistically they have 2028/2032/2036 to make teams, unless you want to hold out hope for massive improvements from C. Sahlman or N. Young next year or that Lex and Leo are gonna make marathon teams 17 years from now (anything’s possible, but the odds are not good).
Chris Derrick, German Fernandez, Luke Puskedra, Lukas Verzbicas, Drew Hunter…none of these guys made Olympic teams either.
I’m legitimately not hating on Newbury Park. But from a probability standpoint I think the odds are better that none of them will ever make an Olympic team than that they will. It’s definitely not crazy to think that.
If you think about the fact that Cooper Teare, with his 3:32/13:06 PRs, is still a darkhorse for either the 1500m or 5000m team, I think Lex and Leo have next to no chance of making the team next year.
5K has a possibility of them getting the standard even if it is low. Getting to low 13:05 is doable if they are in 13:30 shape at this moment. Although if they are peaking for XC, its even less likely since they'd have to carry that over into trials in Feb/Mar/wheneverUSATFgetsofftheirass
Winning trials is even less likely with the usual suspects capable of 12:50ish times. That's a whole different realm from 13:05.
1500 is impossible straight up.
I'd take 10-1 odds they don't run 13:05 next year. And even if they did run 13:0X next year in a time trial race, I'd say that would still only give them a 20% chance to make the team. A healthy Fisher, Klecker, Kincaid, Nur, Teare?, McGorty?, and a few other guys are all more likely even if they do run a 13:05 next year. So less than a few percentage chance either of them makes an olympic team. Technically it is possible, but highly unlikely. Nico is way closer at this point and he's very unlikely to make it either.
They improved so much in their 4 years in HS and are borderline pro. Another year of big improvement and considering that they are just talented AF to begin with, do you think its possible?
My guess would be, they will never make the US Olympic team.
No chance. But maybe they can take inspiration from these twins and make a similar running video clip?Third and fourth overall at the Tour de France, 1-2 on the first stage.
I think more like 1 in a million… so you’re telling me there’s a chance.
I know it’s a super long shot but remember Nico Young finished 9th in the 5k at the Oly Trials in 2021 (Nicos freshman year season) and he was in the mix until the last 400 meters or so. Leo in particular is quite a bit faster of a finisher than Nico, so maybe in the perfect race he could get top 3 somehow? Also 13:05 is really fast but it really isn’t what it used to be so my answer is almost certainly not, but there is a very slight chance.
I actually think C. Sahlman has the best odds of all the NP boys because of his 1:46 speed and nice range. And the 800 is a bit weak in the US right now compared to past seasons.
Odds are that none of the Newbury Park grads will ever make an Olympic team. Definitely not Lex or Leo next year, that’s a joke.
Great post and understatement of the thread. There's a reasonable chance none of them break Chapa's high school 10,000m time at any age.
Let's set the bar a little lower. Is there a chance that, as college Freshman, or even Sophmores, either of them goes under an existing US HS record? I suppose there is a chance......
Great post and understatement of the thread. There's a reasonable chance none of them break Chapa's high school 10,000m time at any age.
Let's set the bar a little lower. Is there a chance that, as college Freshman, or even Sophmores, either of them goes under an existing US HS record? I suppose there is a chance......
Are you aware that Lex already broke the US HS 5k record?
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