This would be a bloodbath. As much as I love Centro, I think he'd be spit out the back with Peter Rono. I see the real battle upfront being a match between Jakob, El G, and Morceli for the lead with El G taking it. I think those three would focus too much on each other and I actually think Noah Ngeny would end up winning, riding a hot pace but hanging tough while all the others fade away or waste their kick trying to hang.
1st Noah Ngeny 3:27.24
2nd Jakob Ingebrigsten 3:27.56
3rd Noureddine Morceli 3:28.45
Ngeny could win but not 1s+ margin on Morceli and even more on El Gerrouj. There would be a dense pack of athletes in the last 100
For me it's anyone from El G, Cacho, Morcelli, Coe, Elliott, and Ngeny. It's even-Steven in a race.
Remember, Morcelli and El G were both beaten in their prime by Cacho and Ngeny respectively.
No.
El G ran 3:26 in his prime. He lost races when he was sub-prime.
Nobody in human history beat prime El G.
Any race in which he ran slower than 3:26 was not his prime.
But that’s what makes this interesting, Ngeny did beat him in his prime. What could have been if he hadn’t been hurt in that accident, I mean 2:11 in the 1k what a talent.
In addition, him and Morceli didn’t really have their primes overlap much so who knows how that would play out.
And what about the Coe(s), who ran 3:29 in the 1500m after his/their prime(s) plus a 1:41 800m. And which Coe was better 84’ or 80’?
And Jakob and Kiprop are interesting factors in this field as well. Jakob is a warrior I just don’t know if he would have the gears to pass EL G or hold of Ngeny, Morceli, or the Coe’s on the homestretch. But make no mistake Jakob would be right there fighting to the last step.
The proposed assumption is they are all "in their prime."
El G ran 3:26 in his prime.
Which runner, in his prime, ran faster than that?
Again,
/endthread
Morris Gachuga ran 2:05:09 in his prime. Does that mean he’d beat Wanjiru (2:05:10 PR) in his prime?
Marathons occur on very different courses in different weather conditions and with different fields. Comparing one to another does not make nearly as much sense.
1500 runners get many more attempts to demonstrate what their prime is, in good weather, on tracks.
El G ran 3:26 in his prime. He lost races when he was sub-prime.
Nobody in human history beat prime El G.
Any race in which he ran slower than 3:26 was not his prime.
But that’s what makes this interesting, Ngeny did beat him in his prime. What could have been if he hadn’t been hurt in that accident, I mean 2:11 in the 1k what a talent.
No. He didn't.
El G got beat on days that were not his prime. They might have been good days. They might have been days that were close to prime. But they were not his prime.
Prime is not a time period. It is not months or a year.
A 1500 runner's prime is one day, in one race, in their entire life.
And I'm waiting for someone to introduce the issue of super shoes, which will make it even more obvious how superior El G's prime was compared to everyone in the modern era.
Makh was an absolute monster "in his prime". If we're using the same testing protocols, I'd take Makh.
One should clarify that ^^^ first. What are the conditions regarding testing protocols, available drugs, shoes, track and training methods? The weather matters too, me thinks.
Morris Gachuga ran 2:05:09 in his prime. Does that mean he’d beat Wanjiru (2:05:10 PR) in his prime?
Marathons occur on very different courses in different weather conditions and with different fields. Comparing one to another does not make nearly as much sense.
1500 runners get many more attempts to demonstrate what their prime is, in good weather, on tracks.
So no, I would not say that.
3:26.00 was paced (coincidentally on a different track with different conditions and different fields than the other champions). The proposed scenario does not involve a pacer.
Ngeny could win but not 1s+ margin on Morceli and even more on El Gerrouj. There would be a dense pack of athletes in the last 100
Probably was a little optimistic with the time and gap between the best of all time. My main idea with how this race plays out was that El G tries to get to the front with guys like Jakob and Morceli fighting him for it, he fears the kicks of guys like Cacho, Centro, and maybe even Kiprop who can drop some mean laps. So El G leads but doesn't get it setup the way he'd like and probably has Jakob surge on him which kind of saps his race. Thus I saw him fading through the last 200 while Jakob starts to reestablish himself, only then to have Morceli and Ngeny line up behind him and go after him.
I think the most interesting question here is what kind of race plays out. Are guys like Jakob still as confident with multiple 3:26 guys in the race? Do the kickers like Centro try to slow it down and cause issues for the "on paper favorites? Would be a cool dynamic to see.
But that’s what makes this interesting, Ngeny did beat him in his prime. What could have been if he hadn’t been hurt in that accident, I mean 2:11 in the 1k what a talent.
No. He didn't.
El G got beat on days that were not his prime. They might have been good days. They might have been days that were close to prime. But they were not his prime.
Prime is not a time period. It is not months or a year.
A 1500 runner's prime is one day, in one race, in their entire life.
And I'm waiting for someone to introduce the issue of super shoes, which will make it even more obvious how superior El G's prime was compared to everyone in the modern era.
^^^This is an excellent point. You have to perform the moment you're at the starting line. Have you ever tried to do that when you're the favorite-fastest at the Olympics?
This isn't when you're trying to PR. This is when you're trying to win.
At ages 2, 3, and 5, I think we can safely assume none of them would finish.
Given the healthier environment for children in African countries, I would give the advantage to Walker, Coe, Centrowicz, and Ingebrigsten at ages 7, 11, and 13.
Ages 17, 19, 23, 29, and 31 I have to give it to El Guerrouj; he is the WR holder after all.
I personally don't know of any who continued to compete as a Master runner so ages 37, 41, 43, and 47 are a real toss-up. We can probably toss out Centrowicz because he will probably get heavy like his father and most Americans by his 40s.
Once we hit 53, 59, 61, 67, 71 and 73, well, I must go with Coe. Like him or not as head of WA, the guy still looks in great shape for his age.
Beyond that, attrition will start to eliminate the contenders. I'm sure several will make it to 79 and 83, but, just like as toddlers, most will not be able to finish.
By 89, 97, and 101, we can safely say that there will be no finishers and very few will be alive.
I’m thinking of these athletes in their true primes, and there’s a difference between many of these runners’ primes and the form they were in when they won Olympic gold. It only makes sense to me to invite a single prime Coe (1981), which means 1972 Olympic champ Pekka Vasala (probably blood-boosted Finn) gets called up to compete.
…
After a slowish first 250 with everyone looking at each other, Jakob goes to the front and commits to leading, knowing he needs a fast pace to have any chance of beating Morceli, Ngeny, Kiprop, Coe, etc. El Guerrouj slots in behind him, happy to be able to follow a pacemaker.
400
1. Ingebrigtsen 57.9
2. El Guerrouj 58.1
3. Ngeny 58.1
4. Morceli 58.3
5. Makhloufi 58.3
6. Centrowitz 58.5
7. Kiprop 58.6
8. Coe 58.6
9. Cacho 58.8
10. Walker 58.8
11. Vasala 59.1
12. Rono 59.2
800
1. Ingebrigtsen 1:53.6 (55.7)
2. El Guerrouj 1:53.8 (55.7)
3. Ngeny 1:53.9 (55.8)
4. Morceli 1:54.0 (55.7)
5. Makhloufi 1:54.2 (55.9)
6. Kiprop 1:54.3 (55.7)
7. Centrowitz 1:54.4 (55.9)
8. Coe 1:54.5 (55.9)
9. Cacho 1:54.7 (55.9)
10. Walker 1:54.8 (56.0)
11. Rono 1:55.3 (56.1)
12. Vasala 1:55.4 (56.3)
Ingebrigtsen isn’t waiting around. He, El G, Morceli, Makhloufi, Centro and Cacho are all hugging the rail while the rest of the top 10 is on the outside of lane 1 on the shoulder of those ahead of them. The only gap is a few meters between Walker and Rono.
1200
1. Ingebrigtsen 2:48.6 (55.0)
2. El Guerrouj 2:48.7 (54.9)
3. Morceli 2:48.8 (54.8)
4. Ngeny 2:48.9 (55.0)
5. Kiprop 2:49.3 (55.0)
6. Makhloufi 2:49.4 (55.2)
7. Coe 2:49.7 (55.2)
8. Centrowitz 2:49.8 (55.4)
9. Cacho 2:50.0 (55.3)
10. Walker 2:50.7 (55.9)
11. Rono 2:51.6 (56.3)
12. Vasala 2:51.7 (56.3)
With 250m to go Morceli shifts gears and goes to the lead, like a souped-up Jake Wightman equipped to handle this year’s iteration of Jakob. Jakob goes balls to the wall to stick to him until the final 100, when El Guerrouj and Ngeny swing out for a 4-man sprint to the finish.
1500
1. Noureddine Morceli 3:28.6 (39.8)
2. Noah Ngeny 3:28.9 (40.0)
3. Hicham El Guerrouj 3:28.9 (40.2)
4. Jakob Ingebrigtsen 3:29.0 (40.4)
5. Taoufik Makhloufi 3:29.7 (40.3)
6. Asbel Kiprop 3:29.8 (40.5)
7. Sebastian Coe 3:30.0 (40.3)
8. Matt Centrowitz 3:30.5 (40.7)
9. Fermin Cacho 3:30.6 (40.6)
10. John Walker 3:32.3 (41.6)
11. Pekka Vasala 3:33.2 (41.5)
12. Peter Rono 3:33.6 (42.0)
Morceli closes in 53.4 in a 3:28 race and splits 2:44.6 for the last 1200 (3:25.75 pace). Jakob goes a little too hard for the win after having done all the work and gets pipped by Ngeny and El Guerrouj in the final meters. Makhloufi passes Kiprop at the line after Kiprop quits with 30m to go. Coe stretches out from Centro and Cacho in the last 80m; he splits 2:45.9 for the last 1200 (3:27.4 pace). Centro’s efficient shuffling kick holds off Cacho’s exaggerated pumping. Walker finishes in no man’s land but clocks a lifetime best off a modest opening lap (if he had come up in a later era training with a group like NOP, he would be more competitive here). Vasala is too juiced to lose, truly lose, so he finishes second-to-last. Rono runs a second faster than he ever did in reality, but probably not quite as fast as he was capable of on the day he won gold.
This post was edited 6 minutes after it was posted.
Reason provided:
It seemed really important that I make Seb Coe 2 tenths faster