Kipchoge v Kiptum will NOT happen in 2023 Berlin Marathon

If you can recall, Kipruto failed to finish the London marathon this year after struggling to keep pace with Kamworor who ended up running 2:04. He is thete going to test himself just like Kipchoge except in such scenarios, King Eliud always has a upper hand. And in any case Kipruto has never finished within 20 seconds of Kipchoge.

Kiptum beating Kipchoge is not going to be news or uplift Kiptum's career. If you are a new NBA star you don't go and play LeBron James in your quest to become the greatest basketball player. Even if you beat LeBron, you will not improve your status much. And God forbid that you lose to him! Kipchoge like LeBron has proven himself such that no matter what happens going forward, their legacies are sealed. So let Kiptum hustle out. If you think he chose Valencia because of the dollars, that is not new because he already declined a slot in the Kenyan team in order to chase the dollars.

So who y'all got breaking 2 this year?

Kipchoge, Cheptegei, or Kiptum

It sure is in Kipchoge's interest to duck Kiptum. Too many loses breaks your psychology. That is not good when you are preparing for a major battle at the Olympics, which for Kipchoge , is the mother of all battles before handing up his Alphaflys.

I don't agree. I know of only two marathons won by Kipchoge that were not paced time trials on tabletop courses. The first was the 2016 Olympic marathon, in which he had an huge advantage in shoe technology over almost everyone else. The second was the 2021 Olympic marathon. (I know that it was officially the 2020 Olympic marathon, but I see no reason to place trademark over accuracy.) I don't know how much of an advantage Kipchope had in technology in that race, but in any event, I do give him great credit for gapping the rest of the lead pack by eighty seconds over the last ten or twelve kilometers (even though it was arguably a relatively weak field for an Olympic marathon).

As for the two sub-two promotions, they were not "world bests," which still require that rules are followed. To me, they merely cheapened the sport and robbed the first sub-two marathoner of glory that he might otherwise deserve. Also, as I recall, Kipchoge ran only one marathon in each of those years, losing some of his best opportunities for really significant athletic achievements.

As for his goal of winning all of the designated "majors," he has yet to even finish either of the unpaced non-time-trial courses, and if he passes up NYC this year, I doubt that he will ever finish, much less win, either race. I believe that winning all of the "majors" actually has been a very important goal for him

That said, Kipchoge is a reasonable candidate for current marathon GOAT status (although I would consider Bikila to be the GOAT Olympic marathoner, and his competitive results (sixteen starts, twelve wins (including two dominant Olympic victories), one second (his first marathon, in Addis Ababa), one fifth (Boston), and two injury-related DNFs at the end of his career) to be comparable to Kipchoge's marathon results. And though I have at times considered Kipchoge to be a reasonable candidate for distance-running GOAT, that's been based almost exclusively on his longevity at the top, from the 2003 5000m world championship to the 2021 Olympic marathon victory; his non-marathon racing (at least in track and cross-country, and perhaps road racing) has been a big disappointment since that incredible 2003 world championship when he was only eighteen years old.

This is creating a BIG gap in Kiptum's resume -- Pete Sampras-level

You seem to be trying to water down the achievements of the GOAT! You claim his sub 2hr attempts were useless because the ultimate results were not recognized due to rule violation. You forget that it was actually Kipchoge who came up with the idea of run sub 2hrs when the best brains in the world deemed it an impossible task at least within the next 75 years. Kipchoge dreamed it and persuaded sponsors and organizers and did it! By doing so, he made history and that achievement will be plastered on his legacy plate and will be the most significant of all his achievements including Olympic gold medals and world records.

As for winning all the Majors, those in the know and close to him knows that it has never been his own dream or priority. It is about his fans challenging him to do so. And he thought why not? But after running Boston this year, his mindset is now different after realizing that hilly courses are more challenging than he had thought and that it would require alot of adjustments to his training and lengthy preparation. That is why he had decided to shelve that pursuit until after he delivers his main baby ( Olympics 2024).

Didn't Kiptum say he wanted to run Berlin after winning in London ? That would mean he was indeed NOT invited by the Berlin organizers for budget reasons...or to please Kipchoge. Seems rather short-sighted from them because there's a chance they'll lose the WR to either Chicago or Valencia.

As for Kip, there's no guarantee he'll beat Kipruto either and if that happens his prospects for a third Olympic title won't be very good. There's also the fact that the course doesn't fit him at all, the Paris course has a mean (10%) and long climb that is much harder than anything in Boston (or NYC) where he failed miserably.

Not sure removing a fellow athletes underwear is an appropriate celebration for such an incredible running feat.

It is obvious they are protecting Kipchoge from another upset they also do not want kiptum to break the WR in that same day.

He also mentioned Valencia as an option as well. I guess we have to take what we can get. They will meet at the Olympics. I'm just worried about Bekele. He's got to get back on track in his training. He might be too distracted with other things. I don't think he's going to retire next year. I would like to see a good race out of him before then.

Kiptum will be taking the reigns as long as he keeps this up but for how long?

I do think he will retire next year.

It wouldn’t add nothing to his legacy? So you’re saying it would add to his legacy.

What nobody yet knows is whether or not the EK Boston failure was because of the hills and poor prep for them and terrible tactics (leading into a headwind) or because it’s over more generally for EK because of age. If he stinks it up in Berlin it may simply be that time caught the old man finally. In that case, he just never ran Boston or NY in his prime and we just don’t know what he might have done. If he’s brilliant in Berlin, then yes, it will be come clearer that it is the unique aspects of Boston that did him in. I think if he kills in in Berlin he will show he’s not washed up in general and he’s got a shot to win Paris and he will regain confidence. He should then absolutely go back to Boston next spring. Wouldn’t preparing for Boston be ideal preparation for Paris? I guess he might just not run a spring marathon at all, but that’s not his style.

Once Cheptegei breaks the WR in Valencia people won’t be worried about Kiptum vs. Kipchoge.

People can also have an off day, no?

Somehow I doubt Kipchoge's confidence is shaken

"[T]he best brains in the world" did not "deem[ ] it an impossible task at least within the next 75 years" for someone to run 26.2 miles in under two hours while using rotating teams of aerodynamic, laser-guided, triangularly arranged pacers and a motorized wind break in a solo time trial while wearing shoes that were widely considered in violation of rules regarding acceptable footwear at the time. The very large reduction in energy expenditure alone made it a highly likely event, whether by Kipchage or someone else. And it's pretty safe to say that none of the "best brains in the world" had any significant interest in these promotional exhibitions; these exhibits didn't involve any of the "best brains in the world; there were basically a bunch of mechanics, willing pacers, and promotional executives involved. Since I had been a huge fan of Kipchoge and what I understood to be his general approach to running and life, I was very disappointed that he degraded the sport by choosing to forego what were likely among his best opportunities to accomplish further great achievements in the marathon in order to participate, very willingly, in these money-grubbing, competition-free exhibits that would ultimately diminish the genuine accomplishment of the first sub-two marathoner. And it is especially ludicrous to assert that these silly spectacles "will be the most significant of all his achievements including Olympic gold medals and world records." No competent observer of the sport believes that.

You claim that I "seem to to be trying to water down the achievements of the GOAT!" You don't say what he is the GOAT of. Obviously, it's not distance-running -- Geb, K. Bekele, Tergat, and perhaps even Farah, Nurmi, and Zatopek have stronger claims. As I've observed, he is a very strong candidate for the GOAT of marathon-running; offhand, I don't recall anyone else other than Bikila who might merit that claim, though I did think that today's letsrun analogy to Pete Sampras's failure to win the French Open was clever and apt.

Regarding the lack of a showdown between Kipchoge and Kiptum, I think it's pretty obvious that Kiptum had no significant say in the matter; Kipchoge and his sponsors (and perhaps the marathon organizers themselves) simply didn't want that showdown because (1) Kipchoge's chances of losing both the race and the world record were too high and (2) the winning time might well be slower in a more competitive race. This kind of competitive avoidance and even blackballing is extremely common in top-level running, as you should know. Also, it's wrong to suggest, as some have, that Kipchoge's "legacy" and reputation can't be diminished at this point because of his great accomplishments in the past; the way in which a great champion comports himself in his declining years can have a significant effect on his reputation. For such a long time, Kipchoge's reputation --not merely as an athlete, but also as a human being and an advocate for fair play -- seemed unimpeachable. I actually like to have a few heroes in my life, and I had fully expected Kipchoge to be one of them. So it's quite painful to look at Kipchoge's career more objectively now than I might have in the past.

But Pete was never barred from competing in the French Open. The more obvious (and, I'm pretty sure, more apt) analogy is Kipchoge's failure to win a wide range of marathons (the most obvious these days are Boston, NYC, and every World Championship marathon; in the old days, the Commonwealth Games marathon also had some of the best competition as well as some pretty tough course conditions, though its exclusion of Ethiopian runners undermines its status a bit).

I would be very surprised if Kipchoge didn't simply cut Kiptum out of Berlin as a condition of his participation. Kipchoge's failure in Boston and his failure to take on NYC this year are entirely consistent with his apparent unwillingness these days to take on the best competition in fair races, without personal pacers and handlers.