She is not. The field is full barring any scratches. No one is getting in off ranking at the moment.
That’s not true. Gault forgot to factor in that countries can only send a maximum of 3 athletes each + defending champion and Diamond league champion. Rogers is #17 when you calculate it this way. Very close to cut off, but definitely in. Gault is terrible at researching these things (so is USATF).
There are 6 Ethiopians ahead of her in the rankings, and likely 4 will be going. There are also 2 Americans ahead of her that she just beat and would be selected ahead of. That puts her under the cutoff barely, and there will very likely be a scratch or two as well.
World Atheltics implemented this to encourage people to run more XC races. That's also the idea behind the World Rankings(I would argue) as it makes DL races much more important than they were. I am all for World Athletics incentivizing people to race a lot. Track and field has always lacked a regular season that matters, and I'm all for them trying to make one. Rogers should have raced more
Just use this tool. Rogers is very clearly not in at the moment barring scratches. She is listed as "next best by world ranking"
She is the #2 runner currently out. She beat Schweizer (1 place) and Salpeter is running the marathon (1 place). That puts her as the last in. She might not make it still if the standard gets hit by a few more European runners, but some federations may not send everyone qualified. She will be going. I’m confident.
That’s not true. Gault forgot to factor in that countries can only send a maximum of 3 athletes each + defending champion and Diamond league champion. Rogers is #17 when you calculate it this way. Very close to cut off, but definitely in. Gault is terrible at researching these things (so is USATF).
There are 6 Ethiopians ahead of her in the rankings, and likely 4 will be going. There are also 2 Americans ahead of her that she just beat and would be selected ahead of. That puts her under the cutoff barely, and there will very likely be a scratch or two as well.
The extra Ethiopians have been taken out already. Please click the link above and do your own research. Rogers is not in at the moment.
Just use this tool. Rogers is very clearly not in at the moment barring scratches. She is listed as "next best by world ranking"
She is the #2 runner currently out. She beat Schweizer (1 place) and Salpeter is running the marathon (1 place). That puts her as the last in. She might not make it still if the standard gets hit by a few more European runners, but some federations may not send everyone qualified. She will be going. I’m confident.
McGorty is going to need at least one dropout, but may get it too.
There are 6 Ethiopians ahead of her in the rankings, and likely 4 will be going. There are also 2 Americans ahead of her that she just beat and would be selected ahead of. That puts her under the cutoff barely, and there will very likely be a scratch or two as well.
The extra Ethiopians have been taken out already. Please click the link above and do your own research. Rogers is not in at the moment.
Yes she is. They’re counting Schweizer and Salpeter already said she’s doing the marathon.
Gault’s article from the first post is a trip. Imagine a major part of your job is to qualify for a world championship. Then imagine having NO IDEA about a path to that meet. It’s one thing to know about the XC path and ignore it or hope the track path works out instead. But to not even know? The coaches, agents, and athletes in that article aren’t doing their full job, plain and simple.
Correct. In the absence of a formal worldwide XC circuit, Spain is probably the most sensible and equitable location for a series of Winter XC races drawing competitors from Europe, the Americas, Africa & Asia. After finishing Sound Running Cross Champs, Rogers could have easily placed high in two of those Spain meets.
She is the #2 runner currently out. She beat Schweizer (1 place) and Salpeter is running the marathon (1 place). That puts her as the last in. She might not make it still if the standard gets hit by a few more European runners, but some federations may not send everyone qualified. She will be going. I’m confident.
McGorty is going to need at least one dropout, but may get it too.
I think you are right on the money with both of these predicts. I do find it funny 20 Kenyans would be ranked ahead of Rogers, and 21 Kenyans ahead of McGorty lol.
If someone takes the race out in Budapest, we could see runners getting lapped by runners getting lapped.
I think Gidey has no choice in taking it out hard if she is to give herself the best hope against Tsegay. Gidey won’t be running the 5000m in Budapest so she must hammer down early in the 10 if she is to have any chance. Conversely, Tsegay is also running lowish 29 mins currently and she did that in hot weather at the Ethiopian trials in Southern Spain. seems no matter which track discipline she runs Gidey is always met with one of the worlds best kickers in the field. It’s a no brainer, she has to burn it up Ayana style after the first third of the race or she comes second. Personally I feel she may not taste an Olympic gold until she starts running the marathon as her primary race..
yup…. Folks will be getting lapped in the 10 at Budapest
I like the XC qualification in theory as a way to encourage participation in XC which is nearly dead on an international level. Hopefully after this first go-round or two more people will catch on and we’ll see runners like Rogers, Kelati and Mantz running some of these XC meets. But in the interest of fairness, the XC meets that count for points need to be diversified to include a couple in six continents instead of them seemingly all being in Europe.
Agreed. I remember OAC did a meet in the US so they could get 10k qualifiers, then realized after the fact that they needed 3 XC races, and that there were no more races in the states that had enough points for them to chase, so they just switched gears to indoors.
So does this mean Karissa is on the 10k team then? I assume she likely makes the 5k team too.
Last time Karissa got greedy and ran multiple events at a championship, didn’t she injure herself? All for her comeback, but it’d be nice to see the distance ladies focus on either the 5 or 10k not both. Maybe the US would have a better showing
The extra Ethiopians have been taken out already. Please click the link above and do your own research. Rogers is not in at the moment.
Yes she is. They’re counting Schweizer and Salpeter already said she’s doing the marathon.
You can't take out Schweizer because she's 1 of 3 women who have the standard unless she formally scratches. 20 spots are taken from women meeting the entry standard, and combined with the quota XC spots that goes over the minimum field size. She's 3rd out by world ranking, 2nd if you take out Salpeter. This means Rogers needs 3 spots to open up from scratches, 1 to lower the field size to the minimum of 27, 1 for Fiona O'Keefe, and 1 for her. If Schweizer officially scratches, then she would be 1 of those 3.
Yes she is. They’re counting Schweizer and Salpeter already said she’s doing the marathon.
You can't take out Schweizer because she's 1 of 3 women who have the standard unless she formally scratches. 20 spots are taken from women meeting the entry standard, and combined with the quota XC spots that goes over the minimum field size. She's 3rd out by world ranking, 2nd if you take out Salpeter. This means Rogers needs 3 spots to open up from scratches, 1 to lower the field size to the minimum of 27, 1 for Fiona O'Keefe, and 1 for her. If Schweizer officially scratches, then she would be 1 of those 3.
My mistake, O'Keeffe doesn't matter because the U.S. already has 3, so she actually only needs 2 spots to open up.
The XC qualifying was a way for IAAF to duck responsibility for dumping the 10k from Diamond league. It is not fair to runners like Rogers because the IAAF XC races are in Europe. Rogers ran XC in the US this year and runs a lot of road races in addition to track. If she lived in Europe, she would have a spot in the 10k over much weaker Euro runners.
Sure, Rogers isn't going to medal in 2023 and may even be a lap back if the pace is fast. But Rogers has fought back from what should have been career ending injuries and losing sponsors as a result. She fought like hell to get on the podium at US champs and should have earned a spot at WCs. She was just 8 seconds from the standard in March and will hopefully be able to find a race to get the standard before Worlds. With good weather and pacing, she certainly looks to be in shape to hit the standard.
The XC qualifying was a way for IAAF to duck responsibility for dumping the 10k from Diamond league. It is not fair to runners like Rogers because the IAAF XC races are in Europe. Rogers ran XC in the US this year and runs a lot of road races in addition to track. If she lived in Europe, she would have a spot in the 10k over much weaker Euro runners.
Sure, Rogers isn't going to medal in 2023 and may even be a lap back if the pace is fast. But Rogers has fought back from what should have been career ending injuries and losing sponsors as a result. She fought like hell to get on the podium at US champs and should have earned a spot at WCs. She was just 8 seconds from the standard in March and will hopefully be able to find a race to get the standard before Worlds. With good weather and pacing, she certainly looks to be in shape to hit the standard.
She did not run any Cross races this year? She ran 2 in December of 2022 with her previous sponsor/coach/agent. The same is true with Road Races. Zero in 2023. She is now being managed differently.
So you have to run 3 cross country races but your countries trials race doesn't count? We ran 3 cross country races but no we didn't travel 10,000 miles to race in Spain for a number of XC races that would have been fully self funded whilst preparing to run World XC.
I am not sure but all of the women are ranked in the top 27 on XC points none of them ran World Champs.
Has to be a better system. So instead of Budapest will go to Riga.
