World 1500 Power Rankings Edition 2 (Early Outdoors)

3:31.60 to be precise. I thought it was extremely impressive. Pacing was bad and he led more than 2/3 of it. Had to gather for a kick and Nader was really flying. I think the #9 spot is about right even if he doesn’t have the time. The way he ran this was very hard.

Yeah, he went gun to tape. Ok, he had pacers but it's a strong front-running performance, similar to the way his namesake ran for so long. I thought Nader would get him in the last 30m but he stayed strong. I'm sure he has at least 3:30 in him if he's running 3:31 from the front. I'd fancy him over Habz right now

Following your reasoning about Cheruiyot, Katir has no less room to progress as well. He stayed in the back in the first 650m of the race but he has still this exhaustion in the last meters.

But I think it's the endurance of long distances that is playing for Jakob.

Cheruiyot is still young and I can't explain why he is strugling in the last 2 years.

Katir can progress in endurance but I don't see him catching up with Jakob this year.

I think Katir got pretty much everything out of his fitness. He was gassed by the end like Hoare/Kerr and decelerating. In a less crowded field he could pick up some time possibly, but Cheruiyot just misjudged his race a bit in my eyes. His struggles are definitely due to injuries but he looks much better this year. Last year he got dusted in Kenya…nothing like that so far.

It’s all based on results to date. By “pedigree” I just mean his history of being a gold medal contender in years past and his huge number of fast 1500 performances. So I don’t know, inexactly let’s say it’s 80% year to date, 20% prior years’ results diminishing in importance the further back you go. For example, if there were a virtual draw between two guys so far this year I’d give the nod to the guy who’s placed top-6 in the last three global championships over the guy who’s only made one final 4 years ago and placed 11th.

That's fine, but on year to date, I'd still argue Gourley has the better results and they are 1-1 head-to-head this year. Then it's about our respective views on what matters more: results from previous years vs current trajectory. Kerr has a better history, Gourley's trajectory is better. I favour Gourley to keep improving but he'll need better tactics (spends too much time out the back of the group so he gets disconnected easily, as he did in Oslo. If you're 10th with 500 to go in a race that fast, you're not moving up many places) It's probably not worth arguing this much over 10th and 11th place on the list, though I have a little extra interest as they're both British. The British champs is soon so we'll get another chance to see them head-to-head

Funny thing is that in this race, Julian Ranc, usually a pacer (he was the pacer of the 1500 in Rabat DL this year), finished in 3.33.9, improving his PB by 4sec. He is now considering running for himself instead of for others lol.

I don't think Katir is gonna let anyone except jakob beat him this year in the 15. Will probably be a Jakob/Katir finish. Third place IMO is up in the air. Could be Kipsang/Hoare/Cheruiyot. Nuguse is a notorious choker in big races and IMO, would not shock me if he doesn't make the US team. If he does, I don't have much faith in him balling in the final. Would love to be proven wrong though he is a great talent. As a fan, just haven't been convinced that he is a legitimate threat for a medal. Kerr doesn't look great either not thinking about him as a medal contender

Nuguse is a NOTORIOUS choker? Pray tell? These DL races are BIG races, certainly bigger than any NCAA race. Nuguse seems to be holding up just fine…..The talent gap between Nuguse and the other Americans is just too great for him to not make the team. He’s now 3-4 seconds faster than Teare or Kessler or Hocker (based on his current fitness).

I'd tend to agree. When has Nuguse really choked? It's all been situations where he's been injured and trying to make a team/win a title on limited training.

With the two weekend meets, I'd make a slight adjustment to the bottom of the rankings:

Insert Isaac Nader at 13 behind Kipsang. That'd move Farken to 14, where we insert Andrew Coscoran at 15. Unsure what's going on with Farken as he has curiously has no races since May 28. Hopefully, we will see him at the European Team Champs, Ostrava or Lausanne.

Here are FloTracks rankings:

2023 MEN'S 1500M RANKINGS
1
Jakob INGEBRIGTSEN
NOR
2
Mohamed KATIR
ESP
3
Timothy CHERUIYOT
KEN
4
Yared NUGUSE
USA
5
Mario GARCÍA
ESP
6
Azeddine HABZ
FRA
7
Josh KERR
GBR
8
Oliver HOARE
AUS
9
Abel KIPSANG
KEN
10
Narve Gilje NORDÅS
NOR
11
Neil GOURLEY
GBR
12
Teddese LEMI
ETH
13
Ignacio FONTES
ESP
14
Andreas ALMGREN
SWE
15
Charles PHILIBERT-THIBOUTOT
CAN

Big differences:

-Hoare weirdly below Kerr despite beating him

-Reynold Cheruiyot is a big-time snub, 12-15 over him is indefensible and he beat Kipsang H2H

Yeah your list is definitely better. Also CPT at #15 is weird: he just got 4th in his PB race behind R. Cheruiyot, Nader and Tshi te, none of whom they have ranked; Teare, Kessler and Laros also have faster SBs; and Coscoran has a faster SB and has actually been winning races.

Edit: Fontes at #13 is even weirder. Must be a Spaniard in charge of the rankings.

Heh I think he did them before the meet Sunday. So I’ll cut him a bit if slack. And I actually was a teammate of the list-maker lol.

Right now I would go:

1. Jakob Ingebrigtsen (1)
2. Mohamed Katir (2)
3. Timothy Cheruiyot (4)
4. Yared Nuguse (3)
5. Oliver Hoare (7)
6. Mario Garcia Romo (5)
7. Lamecha Girma (9)
8. Josh Kerr (10)
9. Azeddine Habz (6)
10. Narve Nordas (8)
11. Reynold Cheruiyot (13)
12. Abel Kipsang (15)
13. Neil Gourley (11)
14. Isaac Nader (14)
15. Elliot Giles (12)
16. Andrew Coscoran (t21)
17. Sam Tanner (19)
18. Niels Laros (25)
19. George Mills (t28)
20. Ryan Mphahlele (26)

Honorable mentions/watchlist:
Andreas Almgren (16)
Robert Farken (17)
Teddese Lemi (18)
Hobbs Kessler (20)
Tshepo Tshi te (t21)
Cooper Teare (23)
Stewart McSweyn (24)
Charles Philibert-Thiboutot (27)
Vincent Keter (t28)
Matthew Stonier (30)
Pietro Arese (31)
Jimmy Gressier (34)

The number in parentheses is their current ranking on the 2023 toplist. Kessler and Teare just haven’t run enough competitive 1500s yet this year to demand inclusion. Similarly I can’t rank Farken top-20 based on one 1500 this year when he hasn’t raced in over a month, and I can’t rank Almgren top-20 based on one competitive 1500 in which he placed 12th.

There are other guys I know are worth watching who have demonstrated even less - Cole Hocker, notably.

I’ll probably make a new thread but I like the looks of it mostly. I might give Munguti a shout for beating Keter pretty handily at Kenyan Champs. I’d probably place him 17 as I think he’s a 3:31 waiting to happen. Reynold I’d have ahead of Nordas. Farken is unfortunately definitely hurt again. Couple other minor changes, I’d still pick Habz above Kerr.

I think Kipsang is very hard to place. His season has been so much better planned than last year. He had an incredibly impressive 800. His Kip Keino race was pretty good, but Oslo was a complete bust. He’s run well in Kenya (double win at Police Champs), but skipped Champs. Wouldn’t shock me if he’s in 3:28-29 shape in Budapest having made enough money last year to plan his season better this year.

Fair play, as he did beat Kerr fairly convincingly when they met in Oslo, and he’s run a very fast 800 PB. Kerr does have the 2nd best average of top-2 times now though (3:29.86), was closer to Jakob today than anyone in Oslo (albeit in a slower race), and ran him close for 1350m. I also have to consider how much higher I would’ve ranked him than Habz at the start of the year, to some degree, enough to give Kerr the nod over a guy whose second fastest time ever is 3:31.74.

As for Reynold, I really wish he hadn’t withdrawn from Lausanne. He feels like the next big thing but there are 10 men who have run basically 2+ seconds faster than him this year, and in his 3:31.60 PB he beat Isaac Nader by only .07. So he’s still straddling the line between medal contender and unproven pretender.

T. Cheruiyot
Kipsang
Kerr

list of runners non consistent.