She ran that 1:55 very easily. It's her outdoor opener AND.
If we apply Seb Coe's 400m-to-800m ratio back when he was in 1:41 800 shape. His lifetime 400 pr was 46.87 (Her British Male Counterpart in national records)
1:41.73 / 2 = 50.865 per 400m
50.86 - 46.87 = 3.99s difference
with Keely:
52.41 400m + 3.99s difference = 56.40
56.40 x 2 = 1:52.80 800m fitness.
She got the european record, world record, AND gold medal incoming these next two years whilst breaking a Three decades+ record. Athing mu should be shaking.
All well and good, but Coe was also WR holder in the mile. So it is apples to oranges. If their 400m times were equivalent (52.41/46.87) that might help, but we have little idea on her 1500m fitness. Meadows says low 4.xx (but then Bishop can run 4.04, but only 1.57, not sure of her 400 speed).
She needs to get faster over 400 and/or better endurance as that is almost "distance" ability to run that fast. With that logic, if Mu develops Keely's presumed endurance, then she could run 1.47. Easier said than done.
Yes, they are apples to oranges because they are men to women.
But... what I'm interested in is the 400m to 800m conversion.
Women appear to be poorer converters of their 400m to 800m time.
The other problem is that a lot of these 400m times are inaccurate (relays etc).
I might have a look at people I consider 400m/800m runners (Guevara, Quirot and so on) and see what their ratio is.
That is what I meant - that the ratio is just way worse with women.
Getting faster over 400m would be an excellent idea.
Big time Keely fan, but these projections always are ridiculous and we see it on here all the time. 1:55.77 to sub 1:53 is just crazy and even if she did it there would be accusations of PED. As the distance becomes shorter it's harder to make huge jumps in the improvement curve. It's almost as bad as those saying Levrone can go 47.5.
Big time Keely fan, but these projections always are ridiculous and we see it on here all the time. 1:55.77 to sub 1:53 is just crazy and even if she did it there would be accusations of PED. As the distance becomes shorter it's harder to make huge jumps in the improvement curve. It's almost as bad as those saying Levrone can go 47.5.
Keely will go 1:53 flat...😁
Just kidding.
Haha! I don't think she will run 1:53 (or 1:53.75, just to be clear, that was 'let's explore this idea' as stated).
If I really had to guess (which I don't like)... I think I'd say 1:54 high or 1:55 low.
Big time Keely fan, but these projections always are ridiculous and we see it on here all the time. 1:55.77 to sub 1:53 is just crazy and even if she did it there would be accusations of PED. As the distance becomes shorter it's harder to make huge jumps in the improvement curve. It's almost as bad as those saying Levrone can go 47.5.
Keely will go 1:53 flat...😁
Just kidding.
Haha! I don't think she will run 1:53 (or 1:53.75, just to be clear, that was 'let's explore this idea' as stated).
If I really had to guess (which I don't like)... I think I'd say 1:54 high or 1:55 low.
As we just saw, assuming Ah Gee Wilson is the next fastest 800 runner in the world there's no one except Mu who can push/pull Keely to a fast time. She got great pacing in Paris and sans Mu I think that's the only way she could cut more time. I too would say 1:54 high or 1:55 low. But not too soon because where does she go after that?
Does anyone have any 800m results or footage from Bekele? He must of ran some 800's when he started running in the mid 90's. He wasn't at his prime yet though so I'd be curious to see how fast he would run an 800m in 2007 when he ran his 1500m PB
She ran that 1:55 very easily. It's her outdoor opener AND.
If we apply Seb Coe's 400m-to-800m ratio back when he was in 1:41 800 shape. His lifetime 400 pr was 46.87 (Her British Male Counterpart in national records)
1:41.73 / 2 = 50.865 per 400m
50.86 - 46.87 = 3.99s difference
with Keely:
52.41 400m + 3.99s difference = 56.40
56.40 x 2 = 1:52.80 800m fitness.
She got the european record, world record, AND gold medal incoming these next two years whilst breaking a Three decades+ record. Athing mu should be shaking.
The first time I broke 1.53 I remember quite well - I was 15 and had a 400m PR of 50.6, and was a 4min 1500m runner (3min59.something).
I think that is a pretty common "makeup" for a 1min52 runner - nothing extraordinary at all. Where your concept falls down is not so much the difference between 400m PR and what a manageable first lap in her 800m would be. Yes as a 52.4 400m runner she should be able to comfortably manage 3.5-4 seconds slower than her 400m best so 56.0-56.5 is right on. But she isn't running even laps off that - she's probably then looking at another 3-4 second differential for her second lap. Coming her strength endurance (and honestly any female competitor at that to Sebastian Coe who was a 3.47 miler doesn't need much discussion).
So 56.0/59.0 is 1.55.0 which give or take a few tenths either side (but I suspect more on the plus side) is what I think we see her land at this season.
I don't think that the deep sub 1:54 territory of Kratochvilova and Olizarenko* is a possibility for clean-runnin' XX women (without another decade or two of significant further spike/track development).
The 'plausible WR' is Jelimo's all-time #3 mark of 1:54.01. My gut says that neither Hodginson or Mu will ever get close to that time, but given they've both only just turned 21, who knows? Quirot is all-time #5 with 1:54.44; I think/hope both women will better that during their careers.
* ...whose second best times were 1:54.68 and 1:54.85 respectively
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You guys need to acknowledge that 1:55 was greatly helped by the pacing lights also. Assuming she ever gets into 1:53 calibre, she’s not going to come to any DL meet ever in that shape and will save it for Worlds/Olympics, where the time is not guaranteed to be that fast due to no pacing and tactics. I wouldn’t be surprised if she runs the same time or slightly worse at Worlds, it literally will just depend on the field. She’s not going to dry and dust Athing Mu from wire to tape.
As we just saw, assuming Ah Gee Wilson is the next fastest 800 runner in the world there's no one except Mu who can push/pull Keely to a fast time. She got great pacing in Paris and sans Mu I think that's the only way she could cut more time. I too would say 1:54 high or 1:55 low. But not too soon because where does she go after that?
Firstly, pacing was poor as happened once indoors this year. Hodgkinson overtook this woman outside and had to push her inside.
Secondly the next fastest is Mary Moraa, not Ajeé Wilson. What's more Moraa, even with her 1:56.71 PB only, is a very tough, unpredictable opponent and a medal contender.
1:54 will be KH lifetime best. Maybe mid maybe high.