Because the guy who ran 7:58 ran 3:29 and 12:39 and was better at 3k/2 miles than any other event. And because many other greats have given it a shot and run 8:01+
True, but also Mottram ran 8:03 at Pre and wasn't even trying for the WR. If he was shooting for the WR instead of racing to win, I think he'd have gotten it. And he was a 3:48.98/12:55 guy, not a 3:28/12:48 guy. Jakob has better PRs at the 1500, mile, 2k, 3k, and 5k. Jakob ran 7:27 in 2020. If he can hold that pace for like 30 more seconds he can get the record. It's not a given, but people need to stop acting like 7:58 is on the same level as 7:20. Katir was under Komen's indoor WR this year and I don't think he's ever beat Jakob.
It must be after the sunset so I think it is perfect.
Let's hope so but I think it could be quite warm. Might have dropped to 26ish-27ish by then. I'm basing this off the location of the stadium and for the later part of 8-9pm. The forecast could be wrong too. It could even still be 28... or thundery!
Because the guy who ran 7:58 ran 3:29 and 12:39 and was better at 3k/2 miles than any other event. And because many other greats have given it a shot and run 8:01+
If this were true, would the outdoor toplist look like this:
3. Craig Mottram 8:03.50 (1)
June 10, 2007
4. Tariku Bekele 8:04.83 (2)
June 10, 2007
5. Matt Tegenkamp 8:07.07 (3)
June 10, 2007
Of course not.
Komen was a 3:29.46/12:39.74 guy who was best at 3k/2 mile.
Ingebrigtsen is a 3:28.32 guy who’s run 12:48 FTW and appears pretty unbeatable in championship 5ks, who could probably run low 12:40s, who is probably best at 3k/2 mile.
Based on the above comparison it would look pretty much like a wash.
But as others have said, 7:58.61 is not the same as 7:20.67–it’s not as strong as 12:39.74 either. It’s 7:26.18 pace for an additional 32 seconds. If Jakob is ready to run times on the order of 3:28/3:45/7:24.0/12:43, he can get the record.
His last training session 6x800: 2x2:00 2x1.55 and 2x1:49.5. If not too much wind; 7.56 -7.57. The last 600 will be fast.
Upon further review, didn't J Ingebrigtsen take about (5 to 15) minutes recovery after the first four? If J Ingebrigtsen would have been able to do 6 x 800m ALL with (90 to 120) seconds recovery, I would agree with you. Since he did not, NO WAY will your prediction be accurate.
His last training session 6x800: 2x2:00 2x1.55 and 2x1:49.5. If not too much wind; 7.56 -7.57. The last 600 will be fast.
Upon further review, didn't J Ingebrigtsen take about (5 to 15) minutes recovery after the first four? If J Ingebrigtsen would have been able to do 6 x 800m ALL with (90 to 120) seconds recovery, I would agree with you. Since he did not, NO WAY will your prediction be accurate.
Dude, 1:49.5 is 3:25.3 1500 pace and only 3 seconds off Ingebrigtsen’s 800 PR. The fact that he was able to do two of those after the first 4 reps, even with lengthy recoveries, is impressive as hell.
I don’t think he’ll run 7:56 but I’d love it if he did, so people would have to reevaluate what a truly world class 2 mile time is. I think he’ll run 7:58.xx.
Dude, 1:49.5 is 3:25.3 1500 pace and only 3 seconds off Ingebrigtsen’s 800 PR. The fact that he was able to do two of those after the first 4 reps, even with lengthy recoveries, is impressive as hell.
I don’t think he’ll run 7:56 but I’d love it if he did, so people would have to reevaluate what a truly world class 2 mile time is. I think he’ll run 7:58.xx.
Yes I expect 7:58-8:00. Jakob knows his own fitness pretty well (see his indoor 1500 record/European mile record attempt). If he doesn’t get the record, it would be a big shock to me if he’s way off.
He ran 3:28.32 in an olympic final after 2 hard rounds, he ran 3:46.46, can run low 12:40s, and is olympic champion and world champion. Why does everyone doubt him he is pushing the sport continuously and we should all support him.
Because the guy who ran 7:58 ran 3:29 and 12:39 and was better at 3k/2 miles than any other event. And because many other greats have given it a shot and run 8:01+
All correct points and I fundamentally agree with you - but here are a few small reasons for some optimism.
1) 7.58.61 is not in line with what Komen was probably capable of. In 97 when he ran this WR, he "only" ran 7.30 for 3km and didn't really hit top form of that season until later in August when he ran 3.46 and 12.39. Almost no doubt that peak DK could have had that record in the 7.55 high/56 low stratosphere. To sort of validate that, he of course also ran 7.58.91 in Australia in 98 but in February. No doubt this record could be even tougher.
2) Others gave it cracks but kind of in lower tier meets or meets that really aren't super conducive to really fast times. Geb tried it at Hengelo in 97 (end of May), then the 3 next times on the list all come from Pre in 2010, then from the Cardinal meet in Palo Alto. It doesn't often appear at meets like Paris where the meet is big and the conditions are usually excellent. Obviously Pre is an elite meet but the races were always in the middle of the day when it was super hot and usually windy - why the mile times (and honestly any distance event) historically are very hit and miss with a lot of 3.49/50 winning times) despite stellar fields.
Jakob just ran 3.32 to be honest quite easily and looked metronomic doing it. Not unreasonable to think he might be right now the strongest he will be all season (not a lot of racing yet, coming off winter and spring workouts). If they have the lights out there it will be a massive help (I assume they will) so if he can get to 1500m in 3.40 I think he can run 7.59 flat and then it really comes to how good he feels on the day if he can find that extra half second or not.
I give him a 35% chance of breaking the record. Will be a fascinating effort to watch.
Jakob just ran 3.32 to be honest quite easily and looked metronomic doing it. Not unreasonable to think he might be right now the strongest he will be all season (not a lot of racing yet, coming off winter and spring workouts). If they have the lights out there it will be a massive help (I assume they will) so if he can get to 1500m in 3.40 I think he can run 7.59 flat and then it really comes to how good he feels on the day if he can find that extra half second or not.
I give him a 35% chance of breaking the record. Will be a fascinating effort to watch.
I doubt he’d want to. 3:44.0 seems like the way to go. 3:44.0 - 3:42.5 - 218.68m at 29.3/200 pace gets him the record.
Jakob just ran 3.32 to be honest quite easily and looked metronomic doing it. Not unreasonable to think he might be right now the strongest he will be all season (not a lot of racing yet, coming off winter and spring workouts). If they have the lights out there it will be a massive help (I assume they will) so if he can get to 1500m in 3.40 I think he can run 7.59 flat and then it really comes to how good he feels on the day if he can find that extra half second or not.
I give him a 35% chance of breaking the record. Will be a fascinating effort to watch.
I doubt he’d want to. 3:44.0 seems like the way to go. 3:44.0 - 3:42.5 - 218.68m at 29.3/200 pace gets him the record.
Sorry you are 100% right my mistake - I had 7.20 in my mind for some reason. 3.44 maybe even 45 to negative split a little is the number. Thanks for catching that
He ran 3:28.32 in an olympic final after 2 hard rounds, he ran 3:46.46, can run low 12:40s, and is olympic champion and world champion. Why does everyone doubt him he is pushing the sport continuously and we should all support him.
Komen is the stronger 3k and 5k runner. Komen ran the 12:39 WR at one point. He’s run 7:20 and 7:23 for a 3k, and for the 2 mile he’s actually run 7:58 twice. There’s clearly no question whose better atm