Ingebrigtsen obviously has the hardware and has consistently done it on the biggest stages, so he deserves to be the favorite. Nuguse has never even run a Diamond League, let alone won one.
But indoors, Nuguse was clearly on a completely different level than his last few years. The recipe for beating Ingebrigtsen, as Wightman showed last year, is that you have to be strong enough to hold onto him and still have something left to kick off a fast pace. That's exactly what Nuguse showed at Millrose. If he's still in that sort of shape, I think he's got a chance to win.
Nuguse´s impressive indoor mile and 3000m were run on the very fast American wooden tracks.
Kejelcha holds the WR in the indoor mile run on Boston´s fast wooden track. Kejelcha has never been close to Jakob in the outdoor mile or 1500m.
Nuguse´s 3:33 1500m run indoor in Madrid is probably a better time to use when comparing to Jakob.
Jakob ran 3:32 indoors in Lievin after illness this year and 3:30 (= the 1500m indoor WR) last year when healthy.
Ridiculous comment. There is no difference between the Armory track where Yared ran 3:47 and the Lieven track which has seen both the 1,500 and 3,000 WR in the last year. Kejelcha is a 5,000/10,000 runner outdoor, he focused on the mile for only one indoor season. I think Jakob will win next weekend, but your arguments downplaying Yared's performances are terrible
Nuguse´s impressive indoor mile and 3000m were run on the very fast American wooden tracks.
Kejelcha holds the WR in the indoor mile run on Boston´s fast wooden track. Kejelcha has never been close to Jakob in the outdoor mile or 1500m.
Nuguse´s 3:33 1500m run indoor in Madrid is probably a better time to use when comparing to Jakob.
Jakob ran 3:32 indoors in Lievin after illness this year and 3:30 (= the 1500m indoor WR) last year when healthy.
Ridiculous comment. There is no difference between the Armory track where Yared ran 3:47 and the Lieven track which has seen both the 1,500 and 3,000 WR in the last year. Kejelcha is a 5,000/10,000 runner outdoor, he focused on the mile for only one indoor season. I think Jakob will win next weekend, but your arguments downplaying Yared's performances are terrible
Ridiculous comment. There is no difference between the Armory track where Yared ran 3:47 and the Lieven track which has seen both the 1,500 and 3,000 WR in the last year. Kejelcha is a 5,000/10,000 runner outdoor, he focused on the mile for only one indoor season. I think Jakob will win next weekend, but your arguments downplaying Yared's performances are terrible
Yet another patriot!
Your entire comment history is denigrating all of Jakobs opponents. We know he is the best, no need to downplay every other runner to do that. Especially when your logic makes no sense
Entries for the Rabat Diamond League are out. We already know about Jacobs vs Kerley in the 100 but look at the 1500: Jakob Ingebrigtsen, Ollie Hoare, Yared Nuguse, Mario Garcia Romo, Abel Kipsang.
Word is the Jakob is targeting a wr attempt just two weeks later in Norway? So he must be fit. Hoare has been sounding very confident on the coffee club, and I don’t think you should assume he’ll never beat Yared again just because of Millrose. I’m picking Jakob, then Hoare and then Yared ahead of Kipsang.
Entries for the Rabat Diamond League are out. We already know about Jacobs vs Kerley in the 100 but look at the 1500: Jakob Ingebrigtsen, Ollie Hoare, Yared Nuguse, Mario Garcia Romo, Abel Kipsang.
Word is the Jakob is targeting a wr attempt just two weeks later in Norway? So he must be fit. Hoare has been sounding very confident on the coffee club, and I don’t think you should assume he’ll never beat Yared again just because of Millrose. I’m picking Jakob, then Hoare and then Yared ahead of Kipsang.
Such a forced debate by you Americans. Jakob is gonna lap this goose
In a championship setting (3 races) Jakob is clear favorite. But in the first of the season race for Jakob, Yared has a big chance. Unless, Jakob is in shape already and will ask for 3:28 pace, then everyone will be chasing Jakob and might not have enough track to catch him.
Maybe I'm being cynical or maybe the incessant coffee club Yared propaganda has burned me out but I don't really see Yared in the same league as Jakob and I'll have to see it to believe it. I view Yared the same way I view Katir or Hoare, incredible athletes but don't ever think "oh man he can take down Jakob in a DL 1500m." Jakob hasn't lost a DL 1500m since 2021 when he was 3rd at Monaco (after being sick in the run up) then lost the DL final to prime Cheruiyot post Olympic win.
None of the current crop of 1500 runners have beaten Jakob in a DL apart from Katir (in Monaco) & Cheruiyot (who I think is at the tail end of his prime).
Ingebrigtsen obviously has the hardware and has consistently done it on the biggest stages, so he deserves to be the favorite. Nuguse has never even run a Diamond League, let alone won one.
But indoors, Nuguse was clearly on a completely different level than his last few years. The recipe for beating Ingebrigtsen, as Wightman showed last year, is that you have to be strong enough to hold onto him and still have something left to kick off a fast pace. That's exactly what Nuguse showed at Millrose. If he's still in that sort of shape, I think he's got a chance to win.
I mean this logic has been around forever and makes seems logical on the surface. If an athlete is in "x" shape indoors it's just assumed they will be in shape "x +++" come outdoors and in the past I would say in 90% of cases that was true.
I think though with more and more impetus being put on indoors (and it really started with covid where opportunities to compete were just so limited that the hunger to run in any competition be it indoors or out was the same), it is hard to apply this logic anymore. We are also starting to really recognize athletes that race really well coming straight off base work and with product (mega cushioned spikes that perform the same way the old mid-season, zero cushioned "race day" spikes do) that allows a much easier transition from 100 mile weeks and hill work into a race. A lot of these athletes now are much closer to their peaks indoors than the past and the longer traditional transition to summer racing on the track (typically 6 weeks) tends to hurt them more than help them.
I'm not saying Nuguse is this guy just yet, but one thing we know is that he has a history of injury and so who really knows. Is it possible he never even approaches 3.47.38 outdoors? Absolutely - not many guys in history ever ran that fast outdoors (only 12 have ever). I'd love to sit here and assume that 3.47 low indoors naturally translates to 3.45.xx outdoors but I don't think so anymore.
I think he's got a chance to win, I just don't think he will. J.I is the best MD talent on the planet right now for a reason.
This post was edited 25 seconds after it was posted.
One thing in Yared's favor --> the field quality drops off quickly in this one. My main concern with Yared is positioning and tactics not fitness. If he commits in this one, I really would be surprised if he has more than the following runners (2 are teammates who will play nice) to navigate in the last 400: Hoare, Jakob, Kipsang, Mario. Given that, it feels unlikely that Jakob will generate a huge gap with Yared stuck mid-pack unless Yared's fitness has slipped or he falls asleep mid-race. The Jakob "squeeze" was unbeatable last year when he was in 3:28.5-3:29.0 shape and nobody was in better than 3:29.8 shape or so. But we've seen flashes that Yared might be able to close a 3:29 race in sub-13 for the last 100. That could be trouble for Jakob.
Early 1980s and earlier there were only a handful of T&F athletes who raced faster indoors on small tracks versus outdoors. There are so many indoor T&F heroes now, too many list. Nuguse has not raced one fast outdoor meet in his life. Will he begin racing fast outdoors this weekend? No way should anyone bet on Nuguse this weekend.
I mean this logic has been around forever and makes seems logical on the surface. If an athlete is in "x" shape indoors it's just assumed they will be in shape "x +++" come outdoors and in the past I would say in 90% of cases that was true.
I think though with more and more impetus being put on indoors (and it really started with covid where opportunities to compete were just so limited that the hunger to run in any competition be it indoors or out was the same), it is hard to apply this logic anymore. We are also starting to really recognize athletes that race really well coming straight off base work and with product (mega cushioned spikes that perform the same way the old mid-season, zero cushioned "race day" spikes do) that allows a much easier transition from 100 mile weeks and hill work into a race. A lot of these athletes now are much closer to their peaks indoors than the past and the longer traditional transition to summer racing on the track (typically 6 weeks) tends to hurt them more than help them.
I'm not saying Nuguse is this guy just yet, but one thing we know is that he has a history of injury and so who really knows. Is it possible he never even approaches 3.47.38 outdoors? Absolutely - not many guys in history ever ran that fast outdoors (only 12 have ever). I'd love to sit here and assume that 3.47 low indoors naturally translates to 3.45.xx outdoors but I don't think so anymore.
I think he's got a chance to win, I just don't think he will. J.I is the best MD talent on the planet right now for a reason.
The counterpoint is that while the times Nuguse ran were solid (3:47/7:28), it was really more the fitness displayed by how he ran them that popped. He made beating Katir look easy despite Katir being in 7:24 shape (and at home). He closed his 3:47 with a sub-26 last lap and somewhat suboptimal pacing for a fast mile (slow~ 59.3 3rd quarter). He led the final 6 laps of a 7:28 3,000 and picked up the pace. He then sandbagged that season-opening 800m for a nice PB. So, it seems he's relatively sharp.
This isn't the same example, but it's one worth noting. Before Kip Keino, it would've been easy to say oh Abel Kipsang is going to defeat Reynold Cheruiyot in a romp. His PB's 3:29.5, Reynold's is 3:33.5. He won numerous Diamond Leagues/Continental Tour Golds etc. But Reynold of course ran 3:33.5 completely solo at altitude, he ran a 13:04 road 5K, got 2nd in World Junior XC. Clearly he was on a roll and better than a PB. Winning the race probably also meant more to him than Kipsang if we're being honest. Jakob will obviously want to win this one, but this is Nuguse's first Diamond League and he's got all the momentum in the world.
I mean this logic has been around forever and makes seems logical on the surface. If an athlete is in "x" shape indoors it's just assumed they will be in shape "x +++" come outdoors and in the past I would say in 90% of cases that was true.
I think though with more and more impetus being put on indoors (and it really started with covid where opportunities to compete were just so limited that the hunger to run in any competition be it indoors or out was the same), it is hard to apply this logic anymore. We are also starting to really recognize athletes that race really well coming straight off base work and with product (mega cushioned spikes that perform the same way the old mid-season, zero cushioned "race day" spikes do) that allows a much easier transition from 100 mile weeks and hill work into a race. A lot of these athletes now are much closer to their peaks indoors than the past and the longer traditional transition to summer racing on the track (typically 6 weeks) tends to hurt them more than help them.
I'm not saying Nuguse is this guy just yet, but one thing we know is that he has a history of injury and so who really knows. Is it possible he never even approaches 3.47.38 outdoors? Absolutely - not many guys in history ever ran that fast outdoors (only 12 have ever). I'd love to sit here and assume that 3.47 low indoors naturally translates to 3.45.xx outdoors but I don't think so anymore.
I think he's got a chance to win, I just don't think he will. J.I is the best MD talent on the planet right now for a reason.
The counterpoint is that while the times Nuguse ran were solid (3:47/7:28), it was really more the fitness displayed by how he ran them that popped. He made beating Katir look easy despite Katir being in 7:24 shape (and at home). He closed his 3:47 with a sub-26 last lap and somewhat suboptimal pacing for a fast mile (slow~ 59.3 3rd quarter). He led the final 6 laps of a 7:28 3,000 and picked up the pace. He then sandbagged that season-opening 800m for a nice PB. So, it seems he's relatively sharp.
This isn't the same example, but it's one worth noting. Before Kip Keino, it would've been easy to say oh Abel Kipsang is going to defeat Reynold Cheruiyot in a romp. His PB's 3:29.5, Reynold's is 3:33.5. He won numerous Diamond Leagues/Continental Tour Golds etc. But Reynold of course ran 3:33.5 completely solo at altitude, he ran a 13:04 road 5K, got 2nd in World Junior XC. Clearly he was on a roll and better than a PB. Winning the race probably also meant more to him than Kipsang if we're being honest. Jakob will obviously want to win this one, but this is Nuguse's first Diamond League and he's got all the momentum in the world.
Jakob will want to win but his season will be judged by how he does in the WC 1500m which is still 3 months away.