Heat wave coming...Bail on marathon next weekend ??

Gonna push back a bit on most of the replies here. If you're shooting for a specific time goal and the weather isn't cooperating, it makes sense to look for a different race instead of running yourself into the ground and then most likely not being able to take another shot until the fall. Doesn't mean you're weak or anything like that.

That being said, you should still probably just run. 65 is warmer than ideal but not that hot, and most places will only be getting warmer in the next couple of weeks. Unless you can find a flat race somewhere much further north in the next two weeks, this will probably be your best chance. Good luck

if you're in 1.22 shape youre sandbagging for 3 hours anyway. go for 3 hours you'll be ifne

OP just put some ice in your sports bra and you’ll be fine!

0/10

I am not sure why you posted this weatherby unless to attrack attention because you must know better. Nothing unusual about that weather. Warmer than ideal but if you waited for PERFECT conditions you may never run one.

When somebody suggests they are going to throw away all that time, work and struggle because the finishing temperature is maybe 7 degrees warmer than ideal, I KNOW they are not serious.

men will literally complain about 60 degrees temperatures being too hot before going to therapy

Pour a bunch of of water on your shirt each water stop.

Unless the forecast gets significantly worse I would go for it. 1:22HM should give you a solidly sub 3 full in good conditions. In average conditions you can still sneak under. If it was fall, waiting a few weeks might make sense, but it's only getting warmer.

My one and only marathon (which I define as 26 miles of hell followed by a 200m sprint) took place on the hottest day of the year - 92 degrees. I finished it. It finished me. Go for it anyway.

Sounds like you would be better finding a sports psychologist to help you with your catastrophising and talking yourself out of success pre race rather than worrying about what many would consider ideal conditions.

A sub 3 hour marathon attempt - is it really that important whether in the grand scale of things you fail or succeed? You're not aiming for Olympic selection. You will likely learn far more about yourself from trying and failing (how to cope with normal conditions, how to have better mental resilience, etc) than dropping out.

Do you have problems in other areas of life with this character trait? You realise its not good, right? You lack resilience.

I'm guessing you're running the Horse this weekend and your backup is the Derby. As someone whose PR is 3:0x and is relatively over the hill for PRs, I can empathize with your concern. That being said, your best bet is to heavily layer up the rest of the week during your runs to acclimatize and just go ahead and run it, as the weather 3 weeks from now is still up in the air, although I guess you could make a game time decision with the 2 week loooong range forecast on race day, but as others have said, then you've already lost with that mindset. Plan for a couple of potentially cool fall marathons, using wunderground weather history to check out the weather on the day for the last decade (or way more) as a guide. Good luck!

Grandma's in June as a follow up after you run this one.

I honestly dk why LRC has such a visceral reaction to this. For amateur runners who aren't hopping in marathons for a paycheck, spending 6 months in a training block to get a bad day for your goal marathon sucks. OP thinks they're ready for sub-3. Without being able to get ready for those conditions, it's very likely that 3:05-3:10 will equate to a sub-3 effort on the day. Is anyone going to be satisfied at the end of their build-up in that scenario. It's so hard for amateurs to get weather right & dial it back on race day when they've trained for a specific time. So if someone goes out at sub-3 pace in those conditions they'll likely fall off of even 3:05-3:10. So many of us work so hard and tie a small piece of our identity to this stuff. I think it's more than reasonable to ask this question & to do the race or not.

I've run enough marathons in garbage conditions (hot & cold) that I don't know that I would want to waste an effort in my last few years when I'll be in PR territory. Running Boston a bunch in the 2010s, I have a lot of what-ifs from those years. I ran great in 2018 but put that effort anywhere else & I have a different marathon PB. Nobody cares that I even split to a solid time when people can have a slightly faster PB than me set in perfect conditions. It's not about that but you still want your shot at a good time too.

OP -- I think pushing it back is fine. If you're gonna race use something like the RunnersConnect temperature calculator to figure out an adjusted goal pace. Feel confident after the result that the effort was worth something better. The people telling you the weather isn't that bad aren't necessarily wrong but even a 5-10s adjustment/mile makes conditions a few minutes slower over 26.2. Any less than ideal weather impacts time when you're out there that long. & the adjustment might be too conservative since you won't be used to weather like that after training through the winter. It amazes me that people just trash this & say tough it out instead of talking through it.

If that weather forecast is inaccurate and it ends up being ideal conditions you’ll be kicking yourself if you decide not to run it. Stay with the plan of entering it.

If you want perfect conditions do one of those 'virtual' marathons and wait until the weather is just right. They even send you a medal in the mail!

I'm surprised so many people are saying to still run it. I'd definitely bail and run a "B" option

If your goal is say a BQ, then bail. But otherwise, if you go out extra slow - +2:00 at the half - you could finish much higher than you would otherwise.

If I've learned anything from LetsRun, it is that you need to pre-adjust your expectations for your race time and go out at a pace fitting the conditions. Even so, you should run exactly the same time you trained for because only wimps slow down in adverse conditions. So go for it, cautiously, but don't slow down at all. Good luck.