Twins Jake & Zane have nearly identical PRs, so doesn't Zane's bust prove either 1) EPO doesn't work or 2) Jake is dirty too?

I think Jake has invested too much of his life in Kenya including his Kenyan wife and kid to want to destroy all that with the temptation of doping. We should assume he’s legit and clean. He would have too much to lose by crossing the line and in any case as has been shown by his quasi identical times with his twin brother how much benefit would he have gained by crossing the line? Possibly very little. Jake’s investment in Kenya includes running a guest house and other businesses with his wife and he’s fully integrated into Kenyan society including speaking fluent Kiswahili according to reports I heard when I was in Iten back in May 2022. To all intents and purposes he is an honorary Kenyan citizen. Zane, from what I always heard, has a more irascible character which did not always go down well with his interlocutors. Cultural differences. Most Kenyans are very quietly spoken and modest and a far cry from brash. Only when they start drinking and partying do they become somewhat extrovert but then it’s toned down a great deal compared to what we are used to in our Western societies.

Hopefully, Zane’s unfortunate plight will not affect his twin brother Jake. I think Zane needs help in counseling at this time because reports suggest he’s feeling very low. He erred massively but he should now get on with the next chapter of his life.

The New Zealand sports body which did the tests have samples from Zane dating back 10 years I believe and so they can retroactively test and hopefully that will put to rest the authenticity of his fabulous New Zealand records over the past decade since around 2013. Zane himself should push for this coming to light so that he can at least claim that what he did for the vast majority of his career was legitimate to quell the doubts.

Would you like to expand on this about Kiprop? I hardly know anything about him, only heard this angle through the grapevine (ie. he was caught doping only when his performances were waning)

Which explanation is more probably (started doping only recently; or had been on the stuff for years) depends heavily on how likely he would have been able to evade testing for years.

Oh wow 🤯. This is big. We’ve finally figured it out!

I coached identical twins about 10 years ago. In order for them to have similar PR's one of them would have had to take EPO.

Maybe Canova was right that EPO doesn't work at the highest levels like we think, much like all the coaches are saying super shoes don't work at the highest levels, which is we are are not seeing the likes of 1500m record going down.

I'd expect that both are dopers, all things considered. Ultimately, it just doesn't matter to me since neither is relevant at the top of the sport.

Why do you think this is? Environmental factors can be huge. If one twin believes the other is superior, that alone can impact performance greatly. Self-belief and confidence in distance running makes a difference.

Zane and Jake have actually not lived together for a while.

Zane has spent time in Ethiopia, and Jake more in Kenya.

They have different groups as well.

I wonder why that is, as they were basically always together, especially during the early days of their African journey.

One can suspect that because they spent so much time together that they got sick of each other and decided to live in different countries. Idk tho.

As far as the EPO usage, I believe Jake is clean, and Zane might be as well.

If Zane was on EPO, I think it was out of frustration for struggling in training. Maybe just a temporary thing to get his body used to running fast again, then cycle off.

We’ll see…

Back when I was running in London in the late 1970's there were 2 elite twins running for the Hercules Wimbledon Athletics club. Bob Holt (3:51, 7:59, 13:48, 28:39, 48:00, 2:16:00) and Dave Holt (not sure about his exact times, but I think he ran approx 13:50/28:50/49:00) - now the interesting thing is that Bob always ran just once a day, about 60 miles per week, every evening in Wimbledon (Lauriston Cottage) but Dave always ran twice a day (around 80 miles per week) with a 5 mile run every lunchtime as he worked in the City of London (before his migration to the USA). Fast forward - 1972 - Dave made the British Olympic team in the 10,000 by finishing 3rd (or 4th) in the British trial. Dave, the twin with the slower personal bests made the Olympics, and Bob, the faster twin - stayed home.

Why am I mentioning this? I'm doing so to show that the extra 5 miles every lunchtime did not make Dave Holt a faster runner than his twin Bob, who had slightly better personal bests all round. If we now equate taking EPO with training harder and gaining extra benefits then we can see in both of these twin studies - the Robertsons and the Holts - that the gains were marginal in both cases. Zane taking EPO (at least once) and Jake never taking EPO (as far as we can gather this time) had almost identical performances from 5000 to the marathon. I discount Jake's 3:51/15000 compared with Zane's 3:34, because I believe Jake's 1500 time to be an anomaly, not reflective of his true ability at that distance at that time.

I can understand Jake posting on IG, today in the aftermath of this debacle to state his case with regard to his brother but am surprised that he does so in the way he did. Hopefully Zane will have time to explain the situation to Jake and that both of them can remain on good terms in these challenging times. Life is short. Zane made a huge mistake but he deserves support. Up till now - running was his whole life.

TF do you mean Zane might be clean? If Zane was one EPO?

There are no If, buts, or maybes, he 110% took EPO.

Or maybe he would have run a 63 instead of a 60. Or a 13:40 instead. Given how easy it is to avoid drug tests for a decade (see every pro cyclist for like 20 years in the 90s and 00s) we have no way to telling how much doping helped him.

I can speak with some authority on this. I am an identical twin. We were racing and training the same our times were similar but not the same. I had a 30+ sec PR in the 8K, and a faster time in a couple of other races. he bested me in a few race.

Actually twice we finished a race within 1-2 second of one another.

Since that time, his prs for longer races have gotten a lot better.

so I don't think it means what you are suggesting

Interesting quote from Ben True after Jake Robertson won the Beach to Beacon 10k in 2018.

“No insinuations,” True said, “but there’s enough prize money and this race is old enough now that there’s no excuse why there’s not drug testing here. I definitely think that’s something this race needs to have at this point.”

pressherald.com

Beach to Beacon elite men: New Zealand runner is unchallenged in victory

MWC Bot

Jake Robertson takes control from the start and makes a run at the course record while winning easily.

Link:www.pressherald.com/2018/08/04/beach-t...

Who would believe him? A reasonable person would go he just screwed up his timing in 2023 and after a decade of doping got caught. We all know how easy it is avoid tests. Lance was doping for like 20 years and never tested positive for EPO. Or almost anyone in the tour. Same thing for all these athletes who tested negative at WC/Olympics.

The trouble with being caught cheating is that it immediately raises questions about your character so if you claim that the time you got caught cheating is the only time you did it you don't have a lot of credibility. But you might also be telling the truth.

Apparently though, in the Robertsons' case, a Kiwi friend who is very deeply involved in the sport there told me several years ago that there was suspicion in New Zealand about their cleanliness. But suspicion is not conviction. Still, it's hard for me to believe that someone would get caught the very first time he used a PED but maybe he just didn't do it well. At any rate, I can understand how easy it would be to think Jake must be using it too but I don't believe it's fair to accuse him of it.

I haven't looked but this has to be a Rojo thread right? Being an identical twin I should know :)

The rule is that anyone who gets caught via testing in this era is either sloppy/ignorant or desperate and thus undertaking greater risk of getting caught. The smart ones, the ones that remain in touch with reality maintain a low risk approach and don't let diminishing returns lead them to up the ante. You can be both disciplined and a cheat.