Gwen has ZERO chance of getting an individual medal. The top triathletes nowadays are more complete than she was and the top two US triathletes, the Taylors, would absolutely dust her. However, the 3rd spot is legitimately in question and Gwen could help a relay team in the right circumstances if she returns to decent run form.
Why would triathlon be so much different 7 years later? Whatever technology is so much different - she gets to use just like everyone else.
It is akin to what has happened in running. Remember 7 years ago when 13:29 was a "amazing time" in the NCAA? Now it is "average" and there are like 4 people at every college who run that time.
Remember when a sub-4 was still considered a good NCAA mile time? Everything has changed. You can give Ben True and Chris Derrick the new shoes, but they are from a different era.
The best triathletes of all time, are those who can win both Olympic and Ironman races. So far, among the women, no one has ever done that.
And if you have to choose, a lot of people would say the great Ironman champions should be called the "best triathletes" since that is the original triathlon.
Paula Newby-Frazer (Zimbabwe) - 8 Hawaii wins / first sub-9 and pioneer of the sport
Natascha Badmann (Switzerland) - 6 wins / in a much more competitive era
Chrissie Wellington (United Kingdom) - 4 wins / and first sub-9 by a woman
Daniela Ryf (Switzerland) - 5 wins / dominated the modern era
The Ironman World Championship is an ultra-triathlon held annually in Hawaii, United States since 1978, with an additional race in 1982. It is owned and organized by the World Triathlon Corporation. It is the annual culminati...
Gwen has ZERO chance of getting an individual medal.
Thanks Rinny. Some could argue YOU are better than Gwen!
Medal? She will have a very hard time making the US team. Only 3 spots:
Knibb
Spivey
Rappaport
plus outsiders like Gina Sereno, who is on the up...
Like Katie Zaferes (another new mom and returning american to tri racing) Gwen is WAYYYYYY on the outside looking in. To have a serious shot at making this team FAIRLY, she'd have needed to have started a year earlier to come into this Oly qualifying period with a much higher ranking.
She'll get some world cup starts this year (not triathlon's highest level), and MAYBE some WTS starts (top level). Is that fair, to challenge other americans with much higher rank for coveted spots on a WTS start line? Nope. If they offer enough race spots or if other americans don't show up to race, sure, let Gwen race, but normally spots are limited by country. Federations pick (submit) athletes to compete at WTS races. It's subjective and can be biased.
Gwen has an extremely low rank at the moment, and for her to get ranked TO RIGHTFULLY RACE WTS level, she'll need to crush many world cups first, get her rank way up, then start displacing other americans for WTS starts (if limited start spots by country).
She has every right to try but at some point, with such short time to get her race fitness up to par during this Olympic ranking period, USAT will have to play favoritism for her (over other established americans with higher rankings) to help panic-rank her into making another team.
That's no dice. americans with MUCH higher rankings should not be penalized because they: 1) kept racing with no breaks 2) are not moms or 3) do not have a medal yet. They have been in the trenches all this time Gwen was failing to make it as a runner.
Gwen did this with running, now she's doing it with triathlon. She is mooching (sponsors) off her past glory to stay the perpetual 'professional' athlete. I'd love to see her come back and medal again, if she and USAT respect the other americans and the process first.
This post was edited 6 minutes after it was posted.
Reason provided:
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Well if winning both is your criteria than Michellie Jones is the closest to being the best. Two ITU World Championships, Olympic silver, and an Ironman Championship (plus a Paralympic gold as a guide). AND she's a incredibly nice person...
Because the depth and strength of the field and the other top competitors is much better now, even just 7 years later. In particular there are a few fantastically strong bikers who can also run very well and swim well enough that they don't need to bury themselves chasing down a lead pack. Taylor Knibb, Flora, etc could drop Gwen at any point on the bike, especially now that she's been away for so long.
A really tough call to make without follow the sport closely. Gwen's worst discipline is the swim. And one of her strengths was being able to run her competitor's down and take the lead. I still think she could medal individually because her swim has improved and she still has good running talent after the bike. It's a tough call because your competitors know your weaknesses and they're going to try and dust her on the swim portion.
Gwen has ZERO chance of getting an individual medal. The top triathletes nowadays are more complete than she was and the top two US triathletes, the Taylors, would absolutely dust her. However, the 3rd spot is legitimately in question and Gwen could help a relay team in the right circumstances if she returns to decent run form.
Why would triathlon be so much different 7 years later? Whatever technology is so much different - she gets to use just like everyone else.
I came across an interesting article on ESPN about Gwen Jorgensen's return to the triathlon. I didn't realize how great she was at tri. The article says she's the best triathlete in history in its title. Tri fans would you ag...
- do you think T&F hasn't progressed apart from the shoes? Look at all the Mile times nowadays, the sport moves on, same with Triathlon
I think people are making a false equivalency with Gwen's return. Yes she [gold]medalled, a long time ago in sports-terms, but this is not her returning in her previous shape across all disciplines, she has lurched between bad performances, just had time off for her 2nd child, and now is returning to Tri' not as an honest attempt but as one last swing at trying to keep her career going.
I don't think anyone would have very high expectations for any Track/Road athlete that had been out of the sport for 7 years - do you think Asbel Kiprop is going to win Oly Gold next year? No.
Why would triathlon be so much different 7 years later? Whatever technology is so much different - she gets to use just like everyone else.
It is akin to what has happened in running. Remember 7 years ago when 13:29 was a "amazing time" in the NCAA? Now it is "average" and there are like 4 people at every college who run that time.
Remember when a sub-4 was still considered a good NCAA mile time? Everything has changed. You can give Ben True and Chris Derrick the new shoes, but they are from a different era.
Triathlon is no different. Times have changed.
Why is NCAA relevant? Running on the world stage is no better than during Bekeles prime years.
She was very dominant when she was competing, but hardly the best ever. Her 3rd place was respectable for being away for so long and for the relatively short time she had trained for it. The level of competition was not great, but she wouldn't have been able to secure an entry into a higher level race because of her absence. Gwen has ZERO chance of getting an individual medal. The top triathletes nowadays are more complete than she was and the top two US triathletes, the Taylors, would absolutely dust her. However, the 3rd spot is legitimately in question and Gwen could help a relay team in the right circumstances if she returns to decent run form.
She was one of the best ever by far. Not sure how it diminishes somebody's achievements if they are not as good as today's athlete? What folks dont remember, because we dont follow women's tri outside the olympics, was she was utterly dominant during those few 3 years. Is a world championship, a Gold medal and 13 straight world tri events won in a row good enough? 17 out of 19 races won in a row? Now, if you need staying power to call someone dominant, then I would agree she was unbeatable for only few short years then voluntarily switched. Meteoric for sure. However thats is not the bar we use in track and field, so why use it in tri? If someone sets world records or wins gold we judge them based on that, not how long they did it. I swear this MB has some lofty expectations for what gets your respect!
I will go one step farther and say given her success was on a couple years of training, I would bet she would be unbeatable on the world stage if stayed in Tri. No way she was at her peak. No way. But if nobody can beat you (almost ever), thats a good time to set new goals and give it a run. Respect.
She was one of the best ever by far. Not sure how it diminishes somebody's achievements if they are not as good as today's athlete? What folks dont remember, because we dont follow women's tri outside the olympics, was she was utterly dominant during those few 3 years. Is a world championship, a Gold medal and 13 straight world tri events won in a row good enough? 17 out of 19 races won in a row? Now, if you need staying power to call someone dominant, then I would agree she was unbeatable for only few short years then voluntarily switched. Meteoric for sure. However thats is not the bar we use in track and field, so why use it in tri? If someone sets world records or wins gold we judge them based on that, not how long they did it. I swear this MB has some lofty expectations for what gets your respect! I will go one step farther and say given her success was on a couple years of training, I would bet she would be unbeatable on the world stage if stayed in Tri. No way she was at her peak. No way. But if nobody can beat you (almost ever), thats a good time to set new goals and give it a run. Respect.
The best triathletes of all time, are those who can win both Olympic and Ironman races. So far, among the women, no one has ever done that.
And if you have to choose, a lot of people would say the great Ironman champions should be called the "best triathletes" since that is the original triathlon.
Paula Newby-Frazer (Zimbabwe) - 8 Hawaii wins / first sub-9 and pioneer of the sport
Natascha Badmann (Switzerland) - 6 wins / in a much more competitive era
Chrissie Wellington (United Kingdom) - 4 wins / and first sub-9 by a woman
Daniela Ryf (Switzerland) - 5 wins / dominated the modern era
I agree, those names are the most memorable to me. But comparing marathon or 10000 to 1500 isnt fair. Maybe the article should have said ITU short course best ever?
World Triathlon Individual Olympic Qualification Ranking Paris 2024 (americans):
1 Taylor Spivey 10 Taylor Knibb 15 Kirsten Kasper 24 Summer Rappaport
0 Gwen Jorgensen (her world triathlon rank is 354)
This may appear catastrophic for Jorgensen. It isn't. She can jump up many athletes in rankings in a season. It won't be easy, as she'll need to travel A LOT to chase ranking points to panic-rank (while sacrificing her family).
Process for making the team
Likely, two spots will be automatic qualifiers at two different races. A third spot will be discretionary based on results during the qualifying period. If the auto criteria is not met for the two auto spots (top 8 or better believe), then they will also become discretionary picks by USAT.
Chances at making the team
1st auto spot: Taylor Knibb will take one of the auto spots outright. She is that strong on the bike, she can dictate races anyway she wants off the front. She will get help to extend the gap on the bike from Duffy, Kingma, Coldwell, Spivey, or others. Knibb will grab the first spot and not risk it.
2nd auto spot: The other auto spot.... This is the big unknown. The time is there to get her rank up. She would need to crush BIG TIME this year.
But the reality of the sacrifice it will take is more difficult to weigh.
As this 2023 season wears on, she may readjust her life priorities, with two kids and a gold medal already. It is doable but it will be more challenging with the pull of her family now and the rough (very lame) lifestyle as a pro triathlete..... constant travel hassles, bike cases, breaking down and building up your bike for every race and bringing a ton of stuff on flights. It is ridiculous and cumbersome. The financial reward is about nill. It is blue collar stuff and not at all pampered. Comped hotel is about it.
If her fitness whips up, she could get this auto spot. I don't see any reason right now to think she can beat Spivey or Rappaport. Spivey is a very strong swim, bike, and runner. Rappaport a top swimmer who is getting better at bike handling but is already a great runner. Old Gwen would run either of them down. She is not old Gwen. Not yet.
3rd discretionary spot:
USAT will look at all races during the 2 year qualifying period to make this pick. If Gwen is on the up, and really getting some momentum by 2024, and the lifestyle hasn't broken her, this is her chance. She will need to get picked over others who never left triathlon, and sadly it is completely possible.
Chance at medaling if she makes the team:
I would concur, basically zero. The sport has super runners (if there is a large group off the bike). Beth Potter will be VERY scary by 2024. Potter broke the 5k RUNNING WORLD RECORD on the road (not ratified but the course was legit distance, confirmed by many). She will do serious damage this season. Old Gwen did not break any running world records. Neither did running-only Gwen. And the sport has uber bikers that will risk breaks to get away but who can also run fast off very hard bikes. american Taylor Knibb being one. Duffy, Coldwell, GTB, Spivey.
This should give you an idea of how hard it would be for Quigley to make this team if the "best triathlete in history" will have a hard time making it. Quigly has an even lower rank than Jorgensen who, herself, is essentially invisible right now in rankings.
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.
Reason provided:
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She was very dominant when she was competing, but hardly the best ever. Her 3rd place was respectable for being away for so long and for the relatively short time she had trained for it. The level of competition was not great, but she wouldn't have been able to secure an entry into a higher level race because of her absence. Gwen has ZERO chance of getting an individual medal. The top triathletes nowadays are more complete than she was and the top two US triathletes, the Taylors, would absolutely dust her. However, the 3rd spot is legitimately in question and Gwen could help a relay team in the right circumstances if she returns to decent run form.
I'd agree with this, 13 consecutive world tri series wins (kind of like winning 13 consecutive daimond league races) is extremely dominant and rare (is it still the all time longest streak?) but doesn't neccessarily signify best of all time. Could she have been if she stayed with the sport? Maybe, its hard to say no for certain because she gave up many of her golden years to try professional running. She is arguably the most dominant tri athlete over a single one year period, relative to her competition, so in that respect its a fair statement. But its hard to know what she would have done from 2016 - 2021. To be the best ever you can't just have one or two miraculus seasons. To some degree longevity factors into the equation, you need to beat multiple crops of talent. Of course others could beat her now with improved training, technology, and popularity of the sport. But the bigger issue is she just wasnt dominant long enough to be best of all time.
Why would triathlon be so much different 7 years later? Whatever technology is so much different - she gets to use just like everyone else.
It is akin to what has happened in running. Remember 7 years ago when 13:29 was a "amazing time" in the NCAA? Now it is "average" and there are like 4 people at every college who run that time.
Remember when a sub-4 was still considered a good NCAA mile time? Everything has changed. You can give Ben True and Chris Derrick the new shoes, but they are from a different era.
Triathlon is no different. Times have changed.
Times have changed? So that makes everyone in history before now... not one of the best ever? You can only compare people to their contemporaries. Talent is talent, Prefontaine, Rodgers, Shorter, Tergat, all would be better with supershoes. Gwen would have been better too I assume. But comparing a 38 y/o with 2 kids thats been out of the sport for 7 years to todays athlete is weird ( with regard to the "best ever" question).
World Triathlon Individual Olympic Qualification Ranking Paris 2024 (americans):
1 Taylor Spivey 10 Taylor Knibb 15 Kirsten Kasper 24 Summer Rappaport
0 Gwen Jorgensen (her world triathlon rank is 354)
This may appear catastrophic for Jorgensen. It isn't. She can jump up many athletes in rankings in a season. It won't be easy, as she'll need to travel A LOT to chase ranking points to panic-rank (while sacrificing her family).
Process for making the team
Likely, two spots will be automatic qualifiers at two different races. A third spot will be discretionary based on results during the qualifying period. If the auto criteria is not met for the two auto spots (top 8 or better believe), then they will also become discretionary picks by USAT.
Chances at making the team
1st auto spot: Taylor Knibb will take one of the auto spots outright. She is that strong on the bike, she can dictate races anyway she wants off the front. She will get help to extend the gap on the bike from Duffy, Kingma, Coldwell, Spivey, or others. Knibb will grab the first spot and not risk it.
2nd auto spot: The other auto spot.... This is the big unknown. The time is there to get her rank up. She would need to crush BIG TIME this year.
But the reality of the sacrifice it will take is more difficult to weigh.
As this 2023 season wears on, she may readjust her life priorities, with two kids and a gold medal already. It is doable but it will be more challenging with the pull of her family now and the rough (very lame) lifestyle as a pro triathlete..... constant travel hassles, bike cases, breaking down and building up your bike for every race and bringing a ton of stuff on flights. It is ridiculous and cumbersome. The financial reward is about nill. It is blue collar stuff and not at all pampered. Comped hotel is about it.
If her fitness whips up, she could get this auto spot. I don't see any reason right now to think she can beat Spivey or Rappaport. Spivey is a very strong swim, bike, and runner. Rappaport a top swimmer who is getting better at bike handling but is already a great runner. Old Gwen would run either of them down. She is not old Gwen. Not yet.
3rd discretionary spot:
USAT will look at all races during the 2 year qualifying period to make this pick. If Gwen is on the up, and really getting some momentum by 2024, and the lifestyle hasn't broken her, this is her chance. She will need to get picked over others who never left triathlon, and sadly it is completely possible.
Chance at medaling if she makes the team:
I would concur, basically zero. The sport has super runners (if there is a large group off the bike). Beth Potter will be VERY scary by 2024. Potter broke the 5k RUNNING WORLD RECORD on the road (not ratified but the course was legit distance, confirmed by many). She will do serious damage this season. Old Gwen did not break any running world records. Neither did running-only Gwen. And the sport has uber bikers that will risk breaks to get away but who can also run fast off very hard bikes. american Taylor Knibb being one. Duffy, Coldwell, GTB, Spivey.
This should give you an idea of how hard it would be for Quigley to make this team if the "best triathlete in history" will have a hard time making it. Quigly has an even lower rank than Jorgensen who, herself, is essentially invisible right now in rankings.
How are CQ and GJ in anyway similar? Quigley is a young-ish world class 3000M runner that at least in theory could compete with the majority in the run in mixed. GJ is 38 with children? Apples and oranges to me. Im not saying CQ is a shoe in, Im just saying on paper she is way better positioned if she can find her old form.
You seem to be critical of her "failed" career? Why is a former gold medalist a terrible person for giving it one last shot again?
I was merely pointing out that while in the previous decades, there might a few amazing athletes at this level (e.g. Bekele), nowadays it common to see lots of athletes at or close to that level.
The NCAA is just a good example. A mile in the low 3:50s used to be "amazing" and now it is very, very common. Triathlon has experienced a similar upsurge in depth.
The top, top athletes from the olden-days (Jon Walker - 3:49 in 1982) would still be good today. But there are 8 kids at UW who would "close." That is happening in triathlon as well. The shoes are part of it (for sure) but the Norwegian triathlon training is starting to impact everyone in the sport.
The mastermind coach of the current reigning Ironman world and Olympic champions covers topics that range from personal tragedy to doping, and lifts the lid on why the Norwegians are just so damn good.
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