For Valby’s sake, to have a chance, the Bama duo need to go all-in on the 5. And then, there is Cook. And the altitude trained Amelia Mazza-Downi. Touhy will be fresh for that race, but she might get worked over.
Both will be feeling the effects of that altitude.
The stronger and smarter tactician adapting to that massive change will prevail.
Valby has one and one route - run real hard and hope Tuohy is tired. But how hard is the right real hard at altitude? And will Tuohy be that tired? Not sure, and no I think are the answers. If McCabe is right, she will be fresh for the 3000.
Tuohy will probably expect to go to the front and control the 5k, unchallenged, kicking-in the final lap or two to win in 5:35-5:45, yeah?
Sorry, just rethought this: rather than control from the front, Tuohy will likely sit in the middle of the pack on the rail for 20-some laps, letting the pace drag out, then kick-in the last lap or two.
Sorry, just rethought this: rather than control from the front, Tuohy will likely sit in the middle of the pack on the rail for 20-some laps, letting the pace drag out, then kick-in the last lap or two.
That would be the smart thing and use as little as needed to win and be ready for the 3000. What I wonder is how hard do the AL duo try to push the pace - that is their only chance? If Mercy goes to that "fartlek" tactic I don't think that help her with Tuohy. For the 3000 stick with whoever leads and be ready to go with 4 laps left.
Sorry, just rethought this: rather than control from the front, Tuohy will likely sit in the middle of the pack on the rail for 20-some laps, letting the pace drag out, then kick-in the last lap or two.
Maybe from 800 - 1k out. Also keep in mind the Chmiel is also in the race (Seymour too I think?) so they may employ some team tactics.
Both will be feeling the effects of that altitude.
The stronger and smarter tactician adapting to that massive change will prevail.
Valby has one and one route - run real hard and hope Tuohy is tired. But how hard is the right real hard at altitude? And will Tuohy be that tired? Not sure, and no I think are the answers. If McCabe is right, she will be fresh for the 3000.
Exactly the point I was trying to make. “How hard is the right real hard…” Valby could take it out FAST. And then suck wind and it’s over. Experienced it personally. There is no coming back from that oxygen debt. You’re done.
It’s going to be challenging for the vast majority of these athletes (and coaches) to prepare accordingly. It should be based on “effort feel”, not time whatsoever. Anyone that pushes too fast will most certainly pay for it with the gasps for air.
We are talking about the 5k on the first night. Valby is not in that race. That would have been a completely different dynamic. Valby would likely have gotten the race down at least sub-15:30, making it tougher for Tuohy in the 3k the next day, against someone else.
Sorry, just rethought this: rather than control from the front, Tuohy will likely sit in the middle of the pack on the rail for 20-some laps, letting the pace drag out, then kick-in the last lap or two.
That would be the smart thing and use as little as needed to win and be ready for the 3000. What I wonder is how hard do the AL duo try to push the pace - that is their only chance? If Mercy goes to that "fartlek" tactic I don't think that help her with Tuohy. For the 3000 stick with whoever leads and be ready to go with 4 laps left.
It’s been a very long time since she’s done it, but it IS a perfect opportunity for Chelangat’s “Fartlek” scenario. I agree; however, Tuohy’s not going to go for that.
If anyone hasn’t seen it yet, Tuohy will run as she has been doing since the beginning of cross country last season. She’s going to stay within reasonable reach. Then ratchet it up bit by bit, tightening the screws and win. Doing exactly enough to win and nothing more due to the altitude. She’s been practicing it in practice. She’s been practicing it in every single race. She’s well practiced.
I would be wary of Olemomoi in the 5k. She is from altitude and probably won't have any issues with it.
Oh, Olemomoi is definitely a force to be reckoned with, no doubt. However, I just don’t see her on the same level as Tuohy.
#2? Definitely possible.
Valby; however, if healthy (at this point we really don’t know what’s going on), will try valiantly to get 2nd.
It’s going to be an incredible 3000 to watch. I think the REAL battle is going to be between Olemomoi and Valby for 2nd. With MCCABE sneaking in and beating them both to snatch it!
I would be wary of Olemomoi in the 5k. She is from altitude and probably won't have any issues with it.
Oh, Olemomoi is definitely a force to be reckoned with, no doubt. However, I just don’t see her on the same level as Tuohy.
#2? Definitely possible.
Valby; however, if healthy (at this point we really don’t know what’s going on), will try valiantly to get 2nd.
It’s going to be an incredible 3000 to watch. I think the REAL battle is going to be between Olemomoi and Valby for 2nd. With MCCABE sneaking in and beating them both to snatch it!
I see the 5k as a battle between Tuohy, the Alabama duo for the win, and maybe Mazza Downie as a sleeper pick. The altitude it is her home track after all. Olemomoi showed a strong kick at Dec BU and kept a fast pace in the 3k at Valentine with the pros. SECs was not her best race.
The 3k though is far more interesting. So many strong contenders. Even if it ends up like ACCs I really hope we can see what is happening for 2nd and 3rd as well. Ultimately I think Valby will try to take it out fast. Not only because that is her style, but if it becomes a kickers race the 3k is stacked and she probably knows that.
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