Which is more likely? Trump wins the GOP nomination or he goes 3rd party?

Trump really must be an idiot if he intended to stage a coup but didn't even provide any weapons to those who entered the capitol. You'd think a billionaire president would be able to provide weapons to those wanting him to seize power against the strongest military in the world.

If he goes third party then the Democrats could nominate 98-yo Jimmy Carter and he would win. Trump and Desantis would split the Republican votes so much that the Democrats would be guaranteed to win.

Desantis will win the nomination despite a huge challenge from Trump.

What he should do is run as a Democrat. Encourage everyone to change voter registration and vote for him in the primary. You know, like the Democrats do.

He should actually run as a woman. He could be the first female President AND the first to serve as both a male and a female. He could also almost guarantee getting a fair anoint of the left and right votes.

In deep red America there are so many Trumpers still but just as many that are begging for a decent alternative. Personally Trump would be my 3rd choice and Desantis 2nd. 1st choice would be somebody not as douchey.

I don’t think he can repeat 2016. That year the establishment Republicans didn’t realize that he could actually win the nomination until it was too late in the game to stop him. I doubt they make that mistake again.

Trump can win the GOP nomination, but not the general election. He’s lost even more of his base than in 2020.

Desantis will have a lot of trouble winning the GOP nomination, but could easily win the general election.

Biden can NOT the Dems choice for the Dems to win the GE.

35%

He wins.

45 %

He loses and goes independent or otherwise goes rogue and tries to burn the party to the ground.

20%

He loses and goes away quietly.

The next two years will not be good for Trump. He'll eventually run out of material to rile up his following, and by then enough of his people will wake up and realize that a vote for Desantis is better than whoever the Dems put out. Dems have nobody at this point, it's really just up to the Republicans to platform on the right issues and put the right guy out there and they can easily take back the presidency.

The number of trump flags and signs I still see says you are wrong. He will win the primary, no problem.

He's not popular any more and he's certainly not the favorite. People realize the grift is up. Dude is a loser.

Lost to Hilary (popular vote), lost to Sleepy Joe (popular and electoral), blew the midterms and made fun of DeSantis two days before the election. Meanwhile DeSantis crushed it.

Clay Travis who took over for Rush LImbaugh did a poll - who do you like DeSantis or Trump it was like 81% De Santis over Trump.

Trump isn't even popular in his own family. Ivanka and Jared have said no mas.

Betting odds show DeSantis much favored over Trump.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/17/US-ElectionsWhy would

Why would anyone vote for Trump over DeSantis?

DeSantis has never lost an election. Trump has never won one (popular vote). DeSantis got into an Ivy on his own - Trump has daddy do it. DeSantis has an advanced degree (harvard law)- Trump does not. DeSantis served in the US military and was awarded a bronze star. Trump is a coward who avoided military service despite going to a military HS. DeSantis has never abandoned his wife - Trump has done so repeatedly. Trump is 76. DeSantis is 44.

Plus what is Trump's message? I lost to sleepy joe last time but I think I can beat him this time. I didn't do anything I promised last time, but elect me again even though I'll be a lame duck who can't run for re-election.

Most of what you say is true, but DeSantis isn't quite the dreamboat you make him out to be. And Trump called him DeSanctimonious, which is enough for half of the Republican party to write him off forever as a weakling and a loser.

Trump is going in to WIN. He won't do something if he thinks he will lose. I remember he said that in an interview. He will stick with the GOP.

You do realize he lost in 2020.

Trump is going in to WIN. He won't do something if he thinks he will lose. I remember he said that in an interview. He will stick with the GOP.

He has immense belief in himself.

He's got his base of about 40% of the GOP who will vote for him no matter what and wipe out anyone in the primaries who will split the vote. They'll drop one by one and the rest of the party will get behind him. Sound familiar? It's going to happen again.

His cult is rock solid.

Trump will get the nomination.

DeSantis is young enough that he can afford to sit this one out and run with the full backing of the party next time round. no point in upsetting the apple cart just yet.
plus he gets to be the saviour after Trump screws up again.

He really won’t have a third party option. He always threatens a lot but rarely backs it up. If he starts winning primaries convincingly, the Republicans will probably be forced to fall in line and the Dems might hold off on arresting/prosecuting him. Both party’s establishment will ensure he doesn’t win but Republicans will hope he drives enough hard core believers to mix with vote splitters to help them get the Senate back perhaps.

if he tries going scorched earth after losing the primaries McConnell et al will work behind the scenes to help dems get him arrested/removed as a threat while trying to use the prosecution to rile up their base.

Definitely Trump is going to win the nomination like he did in 2016.

It's the same old swamp of Congressmen & govenors running for the nomination.

People are tired of that - conservatives want someone like Trump who isn't part of the Deep State.

Trump all the way!